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Churchill looks a cracking price. If he hadn’t run in the St James palace he would be much shorter. Cliffs of moher should be in the shake up and wouldn’t be surprised if aiden has two in the frame. Decorated knight could also run to a place.
But he did run in the SJP? And was beaten comfortably by BR who deservedly is shorter in the market.
Plus doubts about whether Churchill has peaked makes him a fair price I think.
For me, I’ve completely reversed with Barney Roy. I thought going into the Guineas he was the hype horse and that both he and Churchill would get beaten by the French horse Al Wukair.
As for this race..
As the season has gone on, I now believe BR is a better horse than Churchill. I think Cliffs Of Moher is a decent horse who I had antepost for the Derby but I think he’s not as good as the Godolphin horse. Ulysses is a very interesting runner (assuming he goes here) but he appears very awkward to win on and I’m really not sure a small field of this quality will play to his strengths.For me, of Shutter Speed runs, she will be the absolute each way bet. I have always rated her and I think, barring maybe Barney Roy, the top class fillies like her would all beat Churchill in a match race. I was on her antepost in the Oaks so was gutted at the time to see her not run. And then to be at the track and see the supposed second string win that day was painful to see. On reflection, seeing as what she has done since, Enable is quite clearly a superstar so probably Shutter Speed wouldn’t have won anyway.
If the Gosden filly doesn’t run Wednesday, I will be on Barney Roy. I really hope she does though as she is such a cracking price, I may even go for a lumpy each way bet if it’s 1-2-3 places.
I may even play the Shutter Speed to beat Barney Roy forecast as well.
Does Shutter Speed’s run in the Prix de Diane last time out not worry you MoM? I don’t think she had any excuses that day, she simply wasn’t good enough in my opinion. If she failed to beat that lot I have scant little hope for her against these.
I think Cliffs of Moher 7/1 is the bet. He was 7/4 going into the Eclipse against much the same opposition, and despite nearly coming down in that race he ran on well. There’s every chance he’ll be used as a spoiler, but after Churchill’s loss I think they may just let Cliffs him run on his merits.
Of course the way she seemed to flatten out at the death casts a small doubt but I think she just got there perhaps a bit too soon and then didn’t have the legs to hold them off.
I also think York will suit her. The small field will help her and the fact she can get enough cover still with the expected normal pace of the race without the risk of getting blocked off. I think Dettori looked like he was so desperate for her to not get blocked in on a track where it does happen in France, he arrived too early.
The quicker ground on this flat track will have her finally able to show why so many of us (and Gosden) rate her so highly. This is the day she runs her big race.
For what it’s worth, as it was only two places, my bet was to win. 9/1 to win.
Not yet played the reverse forecast with BR but that will be my other bet on the day possibly.
think COM will go from the front and in what could turn out to be a strange race (pace wise) could well nick it. Really did fancy Barney Roy till Coolmore pulled out VB and TM. Travelling up today for the meeting,can see myself not getting involved in the Juddmonte but will still enjoy an intriguing race
Jac, you might have seen the nice piece in the Post about your namesake who won this 30 years ago. It’s worth a read. Here’s an extract:
“She was an exceptional mare and with a bit of cut in the ground she was close to unbeatable,” says Biancone 30 years later. “She hated firm ground, but with a little rain she was a machine.
“She was a little bit older and that year I trained her in Deauville. Every morning she’d warm up on the beach and go in the sea before doing her trackwork with second lot. That changed her life completely and she was much happier. The year before we got beat everywhere and that made the difference between second and first.
“Plus we learned she needed to do the job by herself without the jockey getting really serious with the whip. Just time the run well and she had an exceptional acceleration.”
That beach reference is a fine example of why the character of individual horses has long been my fascination.
BTW, I was surprised to read that Triptych, after 41 starts and 9 Group 1 wins barely covered her purchase price of $2.15m.
Some nice analysis on this thread but good luck to anyone betting with confidence. It looks a fascinating puzzle. I’ll go with Churchill for no other reason than Moore sticking by him over Cliffs of Moher.
Last week was fairly confident this would be between the Eclipse one/two, Ulysses and Barney Roy. However, can not believe Godolphin have not put a pacemaker in! If I were team Coolmore I’d put Cliffs Of Moher out front, innitially going a good pace for about a furlong and then slam on the breaks. That could unsettle Barney Roy who’s been a bit free early in his last two races and make Ulysses come from the back in a slowly run race. At the prices I was very much against Cliffs Of Moher at Sandown, but he got knocked back there and may have a big positional advantage (and much bigger odds/value) here. Churchill has mile speed but seems to settle better than Barney. Although the vast majority of Galileo’s stay 1m2f, isn’t absolutely certain to stay and therefore a slowly run 10f should suit both Ballydoyle runners. However, never been a great fan of Churchill, inexperience and the run of the race imo costing Barney the Guineas; has to come back from a disappointing Ascot… And if they thought he was better than Ribchester wouldn’t they be trying to make him Champion Miler?
However, even with the pace doubts I’ll be having something on Barney at some point… Probably not until in running though. After the first furlong when I know how he settles and once he’s first pushed along. Has a fine turn of foot but needs to come under pressure to show it so will probably be a better price in running. Doesn’t travel through races like Ulysses. Good to see the latter finally living up to the high opinion I’ve had of him since his maiden. Ran equally as good in the King George considering the soft ground and distance probably tested him. Even so, just wonder whether he pulls up a bit in front – although that was exaggerated in the Eclipse due to Barney’s characteristics. Ulysses possibly difficult to win with and therefore more saver material than main bet?
Can’t have Shutter Speed myself. Maiden form means nothing, both her and Enable have improved since. Owner sponsers the race and with Enable going for a soft option/prep before the Arc; Juddmonte want a runner in their race. First time tongue strap needs to work the oracle, but on form just doesn’t look good enough to me even with Johnnie G’s in great form. Seems a poor price to me. Visor is the first time appendage for My Dream Boat, but even at his best won’t be good enough if the principles run to form. Decorated Hero disappointed at Sandown and finished upsides Ulysses at Ascot, but will need to improve to win this and although isn’t in bad form Charlton isn’t in the really good nick he was earlier in the season. If a couple of the principles run below form could see him being placed, may be a better place only bet than virtually throwing away the win part of each way.
In conclusion: At the prices it’s Cliffs Of Moher main bet, Ulysses saver, with a probable in running bet (either main or saver) on Barney.
Value Is EverythingStarting to change my mind. More and more getting tempted into backing Barney which was my original thinking on the race.
Sometimes overthinking can twist your chances!
Starting to change my mind. More and more getting tempted into backing Barney which was my original thinking on the race.
Sometimes overthinking can twist your chances!
You’re definitely not wrong there Judge. My problem was always changing my mind and wishing I hadn’t and then not changing my mind and wishing I had! The strife of being a fan of the game I guess.
I’ve been toying with the idea of adding to my Barney Roy bet (nabbed 7/2 a few weeks back) but struggled to nail anything down and so will leave my allegiance solely on the shoulders of the young St James’ Palace Stakes winner.
If Churchill wins, it wouldn’t necessarily be the end of the world as I’ve taken 14/1 about him for the Champion Stakes which would surely be the end of season aim should he be triumphant. I also had a tiny punt on Cliffs for the Arc at 20/1 so a bold (running on late) showing from that colt wouldn’t be upsetting.
Best of luck with whoever you play in the end.
In what initially looked a tricky race I’m beginning to think Churchill is superb value at 10/3. I’m not a pedigree expert but his sire’s genes suggest he will stay and his racing style looks ideal for this trip. Going by the way he won in yielding ground at the Curragh he could well improve 3 or 4lbs for the extra distance, and he’s already top rated.
You have to forgive him the Ascot run but I’m always willing to do that once, especially on fast ground. He does take time to get to full speed and when Moore asked him to go outside Barney Roy just after the 2 pole he could not find the pace to do so and that, for me, is where the race was lost. Moore will have much more time tomorrow to get him wound up.
Starting to change my mind. More and more getting tempted into backing Barney which was my original thinking on the race.
Sometimes overthinking can twist your chances!
If you think two horses are good bets, Judge, back them both.
Or back one as a main bet and save on the other. Then at least you don’t lose on the race if the saver wins.Value Is EverythingI don’t listen to trainers when either playing up or playing down their chance of victory as I will come to my own conclusions but I couldn’t help but take heed of what Richard Hannon was stating a couple of days before Barney Roy won the St. James Palace. This is the best horse he has worked with since joining the training ranks and he is just as bullish this time round.
He was confident but not totally sure before the Eclipse that he would stay 10f well and he is adamant that this galloping track will bring out the best in his colt with Sandowns undulations causing him a few issues, just as Newmarket did.
I think its a very close call with a range of possibilities in this race but 11/4 is just about right with me and I back him to come out on top.Starting to change my mind. More and more getting tempted into backing Barney which was my original thinking on the race.
Sometimes overthinking can twist your chances!
If you think two horses are good bets, Judge, back them both.
Or back one as a main bet and save on the other. Then at least you don’t lose on the race if the saver wins.I was looking at adding Barney as a saver myself too but I think I will stick to what I’ve got.
I now have 9/1 & 10/1 Shutter Speed as I have went in again.
Also have the 24/1 BR to beat SS forecast and the 30/1 SS to beat BR forecast.
That’s me done for the race.
What a great race in prospect we have here.
I backed Barney Roy early days at 4’s but what does he do to see Ulysses..? I would like to see him sit in behind the Stoute horse and track him but that could depend on how they all break and what pace they go at. Other than that he could kick on a bit earlier as he was headed at Sandown but battled back but you’d have to be careful of tiring yourself with other dangers in the field. They’ll probably just ride as normal and trust natural improvement and the track will be sufficient to see them off.
Churchill has always looked to me like a step up to 10f will suit but is short enough after a very poor effort last time and it being his 1st try at the trip, my overall view of him is that he was a brilliant 2 y/o and has held his form but perhaps not progress in the way that Barney Roy has but with only 2 runs so far it’s only a theory.
Shutter Speed looked a real superstar until that race in France, I agree about the Dettori comments in that it wasn’t the strongest ride can’t rule her out. I love My Dream Boat but think he wants 12f theses days or a proper test of stamina over 10f which on paper looks unlikely. Cliffs Of Moher has been abandoned by Moore but had a rough ride at Sandown you can’t entirely rule him out, he was well fancied for the Eclipse.
Decorated Knight seems a bit underrated looks to have improved as he’s got older and wasn’t too far behind in the Prince of Wales and won his group 1 over in Ireland the time before. Didn’t he had a bumping match with Eniment the last time.? He could out run his odds.
Not overly confident but optimistic that Barney Roy wins Ulysses 2nd Decorated Knight/Shutter Speed/Churchill fighting out the bronze.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I don’t listen to trainers when either playing up or playing down their chance of victory as I will come to my own conclusions but I couldn’t help but take heed of what Richard Hannon was stating a couple of days before Barney Roy won the St. James Palace. This is the best horse he has worked with since joining the training ranks and he is just as bullish this time round.
He’s the best horse that both Hannon and Hannon Senior has ever had over the 10f
You have to wonder if not for the owners would he have gone the Sussex stakes route instead, could be a blessing in disguise.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
BARNEY ROY for me. I think this track will suit him better than Sandown the last time. Ulysses may be the main danger as i am not a great fan of Churchill. I am really excited about Shutter Speed against these high class Colts…good luck to all
Not deserting Ulysses now, his last run might just of been his best.
If any of this rain we are having 40 miles away hits, prepare for Soft in the going description by race time. Absolutely heaving it down all Morning.
If any of this rain we are having 40 miles away hits, prepare for Soft in the going description by race time. Absolutely heaving it down all Morning.
Sounds like it’s arrived! Hope this doesn’t mean a load of non-runners
This is really a very high classed race with lots of possibilities, and the tension is rising.
From the betting side I have no idea for this, I don’t like savers and to decide for one horse I’m not capable of here. Best of luck to you all, my main bet today is Dee Ex Bee in Race2.
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