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Can’t believe that Tuesday is a longer price than Westover. In my opinion the latter failed in the Derby because he didn’t have the tactical speed to take advantage of gaps when they came, while the second Hoo Ya Mal did. Not a great race depth wise and I think Tuesday will win it.
The filly crop may well be poor
But the colts almost certainly are as well unless both hoo ya mal and masakela improved hugely in the Derby
For me both emily upjohn and Tuesday can be marked up for coming from so far back in a steadily run oaks and are likely value for more than the distance they beat the rest
I tend to avoid generalisations about crops being good or poor.
We’re talking about a lot of horses, one might stand out, that one might not make itself manifest until later in the season and be a late developer, or a few might be a lot better than the rest.
It’s also hard confidently to put big ratings numbers on 3yos until they meet older horses.
What I do know is that this has IMO been an excellent thread with many diverse views.
I’m really looking forward to watching the Irish Derby later.
This day in 1981, aged 18, I was working as board marker for Habbershaws in their Head Office Shop in Hull.
I bet £30 (week’s wages) on Shergar at 1/3 and listened to him win on Extel.
I later saw the closing stages at the end of the evening news at home.
I hope this year’s renewal is as memorable: https://youtu.be/lS1rDGWJA_s
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"In this post I’ll be talking about “average”, it’s not a derisory term but a median, midpoint compared to other Guineas, Derbys and other races over the years..
The standard of this year’s 1000 Guineas field is imo probably below average.
Same goes for the Irish 1000 bar one.
Same goes for the Coronation Stakes bar one.
Oaks was probably a better field than the above.
First two in the Oaks (Tuesday improving on her Guineas form) put up good performances and even better when considering where they came from in a race not that truly run. The third Nashwa probably put up a better performance than the two Guineas and Coronation thirds, but all the same improved stepped back down to 1m2f in the French Oaks. Epsom 4th Concert Hall probably ran to around the same form as in the Irish 1000.However, both Homeless Songs and Inspiral beat those inferior rivals by far enough to be considered better than the average Irish 1000 or Coronation winners. At the moment both those top mile fillies are better than the Oaks 1-2. However, those four really good fillies still have scope for further improvement and any one of them could be best come the end of the season.
As far as the colts go, not so easy to evaluate. Guineas first and second looked above average and potentially really good… potentially dangers to Baaeed. But although successful in subsequent Group 1’s neither won with the authority expected by their ratings. Puts a question mark on the Guineas form; however there were excuses.
Native Trail has needed to be asked to quicken in the Dewhurst, Craven and now both Guineas. Finding plenty for pressure. So will never be as impressive as ratings suggest against inferior rivals.
Newmarket winner Coroebus only scraped home in the St James’s Palace; but the pace was slow which can be a great leveller, particularly after taking a good hold. He’s better than that. Second Lusail flattered by setting that pace. Third and fifth My Prospero and Mighty Ulysees have potential to improve… But fifth (who would’ve been first in another stride or two) Majloom hasn’t had much experience and did extremely well to get so close from a poor posi’ and has potential to be right up with the best three year olds.
So disappointing Guineas third got injured, put up a performance good enough to win many a Guineas and everything about him shouts he’d do better over middle distances.
Stone Age looked good in his trial but disappointed in the Derby but then Desert Crown ran a particularly good trial – for a twice raced Stoute three year old. Ditto for a thrice raced Stoutey, looking top class quickening clear two out when winning the Derby. May well do even better held onto a bit longer. Hoo Ya Mal is probably a less than average third placed Derby horse. I say third because that would be his rightful position. The ease of victory and distance (combined) between Desert Crown and Hoo Ya Mal still imo strongly suggests we’ve got a better than average Derby winner and…
Westover improved quite a lot at Epsom hence the starting price. But the distances back to fourth, fifth and sixth – even if those 4th, 5th and 6th put up less than average performances for those positions – suggests Westover is pretty good. For sure would not have beaten Desert Crown (or at least extremely unlikely) but would’ve been a clear second to a well above average Derby winner. At this stage imo Westover deserves to be considered a horse right up to the average second placed Epsom Derby horse.
The French Derby winner Vadeni is also a pretty good three year old.
In summary: The very top three year olds look good to me.
Value Is EverythingRyan will be very much hoping he doesn’t get boxed in on Tuesday like he just did on the acropolis
He did nothing wrong just had absolutely nowhere to go
Congratulations to GT – his St Leger bet is looking alright now, though maybe he didn’t want to win quite that far!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Top performance and could be called the winner a long way from home.
Sometimes you call it wrong and just have to admit it!
Won easy
Disappointing Tuesday couldn’t have at least finished 2nd.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Just laid a bit back of that St Leger bet @ 3/1.
Won too easily and connections may be tempted by the Arc.
Value Is EverythingAs already stated, there is a reason why Balanchine was the last and only third filly overall to win the race in over 100 years. Tuesday is okay, but she only beat 9-10 furlong horses at Epsom.
Yes Ruby
But this didn’t look the strongest race not to tryGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
That will put the what did Desert Crown beat argument to bed. ;o)
Leger winner there i think.
I think the Leger would still be the best chance to add another group 1 for Westover.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Will they go for the St Leger? Connections must be thinking of the Arc now, I would have thought?
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