Home › Forums › Big Races – Discussion › Irish Derby 2022
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IanDavies.
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- June 20, 2022 at 10:25 #1603347
I want to take Westover on.
He is short enough in the Anye Post market. Yes he was the eye catcher at Epsom and unlucky but sometimes that can be made too much of. I’d have to see what Aidan goes with but Point Lonsdale was crying out to step up in distance and the light campaign to date could help here if its not a setback that has kept him off trackGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
June 20, 2022 at 16:10 #1603377Now either O’Brien hasn’t got any good colts or Tuesday is highly thought of
maybe bothGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
June 20, 2022 at 18:58 #1603389Seeing as his most successful runner in The Derby ran at Royal Ascot last week, it’s perhaps not a complete surprise.
On my numbers Tuesday can beat Westover getting the gender allowance.
And I think she can beat stable mate Stone Age too.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"June 20, 2022 at 19:53 #1603405When there was 8 1/4 lengths between Westover and AOB’s representative Stone Age… And would’ve been more had Westover got out…
Can you imagine what the price difference would’ve been had it been the other way around?
Even if Stone Age was below form at Epsom, it’s asking a lot to make up that amount in just 21 days.
tbh I think AOB has to run Tuesday.
Value Is EverythingJune 20, 2022 at 20:10 #1603409On my numbers, Tuesday beats Stone Age on both his Leopardstown and Epsom efforts.
And as a June foal she is probably still improving.
The Oaks third just won the Prix De Diane, The Derby fifth scrambled home in the King Edward VII – which Classic form has been the best franked so far?
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"June 20, 2022 at 22:30 #1603421I personally would prefer Tuesday to stay away but I wouldn’t read into the Derby form as being lesser than the Oaks form as it currently stands. Nashwa was close enough to Tuesday to warrant the short price in France but she herself scrambled home against a filly who was runner up in a listed race.
Changingoftheguard narrowly held off Grand Alliance at Ascot but they were 4 lengths clear of the rest. They were also both in the Derby, some way behind Westover.
It’s tricky because Westover is short now, maybe odds on if Tuesday isn’t entered but if he was an AOB or Gosden horse, he’d already be 8/15.I’ve had a nibble at 7/4, for the craic.
June 21, 2022 at 11:21 #1603484Surely Ballydoyle don’t risk the filly running, in a stallion-making race? What does that say about their current crop of 3yo colts?
June 21, 2022 at 11:24 #1603485Tuesday been supplemented. She defo running with Ryan riding
June 21, 2022 at 11:37 #1603486I’m taking the 5/2 on Tuesday.
By the time Westover gets going it will be over
NAP of the year..
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
June 21, 2022 at 12:21 #1603487Aidan must think all of his colts are useless to feel the need to run a filly in such an important stallion making race
June 21, 2022 at 12:28 #1603488The two look very well matched. If able to get 5/2 I agree Nathan that’s the value.
Can’t see much of a threat coming from the others. That said, just before the Derby started I saw Stone Age sweating badly and laid some of my saver back; possibly a long way below his best at Epsom. However, can’t be showing much at home if they’re running Tuesday.On Timeform Ratings Westover is 124p and Tuesday (119p + 3 lbs allowance) 122p… At least it was before Nashwa franked the form on Sunday, might have changed now.
…And Westover’s Timeform rating already has 4 lbs added on for the interference. 2nd Hoo Ya Mal rated 120 and he actually finished a head in front of Westover. So with the “p”‘s for improvement likely too and the fact this is a home match for AOB…I’ve backed Westover for the Leger so suppose I will be hoping Tuesday beats him (if Westover is too impressive may sidestep the Leger for Arc).
Value Is EverythingJune 21, 2022 at 12:35 #1603489Also have to bear in mind tactics.
Tuesday has mile pace.
Is Westover capable of making his own running?
If not can see Coolmore pacemakers slowing it down.
No way would Westover beat Tuesday in a slowly run race.Value Is EverythingJune 21, 2022 at 13:06 #1603493I do not think Westover will beat Tuesday no matter how the race is run. I cannot believe how people are still making excuses for the horse. He looks like a slow old boat with no tactical speed to me. I do not even think he will win the St Leger!
June 21, 2022 at 13:21 #1603496Couldn’t care less how Timeform rate the pair, Tuesday starts favourite and Westover doesn’t see which way she went.
Cannot possibly be 5/2 by the Off.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"June 21, 2022 at 13:43 #1603500I like Tuesday, It makes for a good race and she deserves the backers but Westover is getting some harsh evaluation. He was prominent in the Derby and pushed the button to go virtually at the same time as the winner. Desert Crown wins that race any what way but I believe Westover would have pushed him all the way without so much interference.
Good move to put Colin Keane on board, no disrespect to Hornby, it’s just a fact that this guy knows the course inside out.
Anyway, a much more intriguing contest now for sure.June 21, 2022 at 14:07 #1603502I’d like Lionel to win in respect of a particular future target in mind, but trainer is reluctant to run him here on firm ground so participation not certain.
June 21, 2022 at 15:51 #1603510Owners perogative to put up whoever they want but don’t give me the experience of riding the course as an excuse…sorry reason to go with Keane.
Epsom is a much more demanding track to ride in every aspect than the Curragh is (which to my knowledge has never been described as a course that is particularly difficult to ride compared to anywhere else). Apart from getting trapped on the inner or posted out wide (which pretty much applies to most turning courses) there doesn’t appear to be a bias on the round course to trick unsuspecting jockeys.
I know I would much prefer to have a jockey that knows the horse inside and out (Rob has ridden him 4 of the 5 times he has run and no doubt numerous times at home) than put on someone who has never ridden him and might not gel with the horse on the day.
If he does go onto win the race people will hail this as a great decision and assume that the jockey made all the difference (as they will point to Epsom as a failing of the Hornby’s tactical ability), Hornby is fully capable of riding the Curragh and it is a slap in the face to him that the owners don’t think he is skilful/competent enough to figure out how to negotiate the so called ‘riding difficulties’ that the Curragh presents.
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