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Irish Derby 2022

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  • #1603517
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Agree Epsom is a more difficult course LD, but knowing the Curragh as well as Keane does and how little Hornby does can make a difference..

    Knowing your mount may also be important with some horses, but Westover seems very straightforward so imo less so with him.

    Can understand the decision.

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    #1603519
    Avatar photoCork All Star
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    I believe it is the right decision.

    The Curragh is not that straightforward. If I owned the favourite for a race like the Irish Derby, I would want the best jockey available on board rather than a relatively inexperienced big race rider. Especially when that jockey has ridden far more winners at the track.

    Of course it is tough on Hornby – but he is not the first jockey to get jocked off and he will not be the last. If he has any sense, he will not complain and keep on working hard.

    It is not the end of the world for him. Only two years ago, Tom Marquand got jocked off a favourite for the Derby. No one would think of doing that now.

    #1603523
    Avatar photoChivers1987
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    excuse…..reason. Maybe they weren’t happy with the ride. I agree Hornby is skilful/competent enough but nobody is saying it was a good ride. Tricky, a bit unlucky, fine but someone might have done a better job of it. It’s not that surprising, Keane rides for Juddmonte regularly, has ridden a classic winner for them and in their eyes will get the the right tune out of a horse he hasn’t yet race ridden.

    If it goes well, then great but they’ll get plenty of heat if it doesn’t.

    #1603530
    LD73
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    So had he actual won at Epsom would they have still jocked him off? I seriously doubt it would have even come up.

    As I said I think the knowing the course angle is a bit overplayed for the majority of courses, obviously there are ones that do need knowing like say an Epsom, Beverley, Chester or Goodwood for example and I would imagine there are a fair number of courses in Ireland that take a whole lot more knowing than the Curragh would, which is a big wide open galloping course.

    Had they jocked Hornby off at Epsom for someone with more experience on the course then that would be harsh but fairly understandable but they had no issue with him riding Epsom and I think it is convenient for them using the course experience angle to get Keane on board.

    I would imagine if Westover ends up running in the Arc then Hornby will again be looking on from the sidelines as Longchamp certainly takes some knowing and maybe even Keane would be passed over as well for a local French jockey……

    #1603531
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    Tuesday now favourite in some lists.

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    #1603534
    LD73
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    Makes sense with the allowance she gets

    #1603535
    Avatar photoCork All Star
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    Hornby was never going to get jocked off at Epsom. Why would a big name jockey want to ride a 25/1 chance?

    #1603538
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    If Tuesday never ran in The Oaks, Emily Upjohn wins from Nashwa, subsequent French Oaks winner.

    If Desert Crown never runs in The Derby the race is win by, err, Hoo Ya Mal, with Westover second.

    That tells me all I need to know about which Classic had the more strength in depth this year.

    Desert Crown looks a good Derby winner, but the jury is out on what he beat.

    Tuesday all the way.

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    #1603550
    LD73
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    We are always in that boat of questioning just how good the classic winners are, a lot of times in the weeks following we flip from ‘just an average bunch’ to a little bit later (when form starts working out) well they look a lot better than we originally thought.

    Not sure what to make of the 3 yr olds really, part of me says Inspiral maybe the best 3 yr old miler but then Coroebus had things go wrong for him at Ascot, so can we take that form at face value with them all finishing in a heap?

    After an underwhelming win in the Irish 2000g, it would appear Native Trail is going up in trip as 3 of his 4 big race entries for the rest of the year are all over 10F.

    The Derby was run well over a second faster than the Oaks but the Oaks form (although only one runner has come out since) has been truely franked on a higher level than the Derby where one has won but several others have been beaten – if Westover replicates his Epsom run (or even improves on it which is entirely possible), I think Tuesday will need to improve on her Oaks run even with the sex allowance in her favour.

    Hopefully, we will have a much clearer picture of where the middle distance 3 yr olds stand after the Irish Derby just in time to be scratching our heads over how they will match up against the older brigade when the generations clash.

    #1603555
    Avatar photoCork All Star
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    Hornby is naturally disappointed but it sounds like he has the right attitude:

    https://www.racingtv.com/news/keane-set-for-westover-ride-in-curragh-showdown-with-tuesday

    #1603556
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    No one ever advanced their career by kicking off about a setback.

    Think he’s shown the right attitude and the smart attitude.

    When Westover turns out to be just as much of a canal barge for Keane as it was for him, the rail set guy may well have the ride back again by the Voltigeur anyway.

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    #1603558
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    “Westover is getting some harsh evaluation”.

    ————————

    It’s pretty certain Westover does not have as much speed as Tuesday, Chivers. But given a truly run race is imo right up with Tuesday’s current ability and maybe even a little ahead. Finished with running left in him in the Derby. However, Westover will be more reliant on the pace of the race than Tuesday. Shame the owner hasn’t put / left another horse in there to set the pace. Of the non-Coolmore runners can’t see much pace unless French Claim goes on… And even if he does is more of a speed horse at 12f, so it’s in his best interests not to go that fast. Therefore I can see Stone Age dictating it – so imo the filly should start favourite.

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    #1603559
    Avatar photoNathan Hughes
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    Good luck Chivers.
    I hope I wasn’t being too harsh on Westover. Just wanted to take him on at the early prices and was pleased with the 5/2 skybet were offering this morning about Tuesday. I haven’t got a boylesports account anymore otherwise I’d be going in again.

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    #1603561
    Avatar photoChivers1987
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    Oh I’m not fully on his side for this now. I had a few quid on Westover at 7/4 as the race looked bang average before the supplementation. It’s just become a really intriguing race now and it wouldn’t disappoint me if Tuesday won.

    I just wanted Westover to get a bit more credit so that the race can be billed up as something nearing special. I’ll stick with him, I still like his chances although there will certainly be no topping up for me.

    #1603564
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    “Therefore I can see Stone Age dictating it”

    I doubt if Stone Age will run.

    Ditto Changingoftheguard.

    Eclipse and something like the Princess Of Wales/Grand Prix De Paris/Gordon/Voltigeur respectively next for that pair, I reckon.

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    #1603570
    Avatar photoGingertipster
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    Changingoftheguard won’t run so soon after Ascot but don’t see why Stone Age shouldn’t.

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    #1603572
    Avatar photoIanDavies
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    I thought I read somewhere O’Brien saying he was more likely to run in the Eclipse.

    But he’s been known to say one thing then do another.

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