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Fair enough, Chezza.
As I said earlier in this thread, I don’t think that this year’s 3yo fillies are particularly good.
The colts may not be superstars, but they don’t need to be; Westover is, in my opinion, the best of them and would beat Desert Crown (all things being equal) were they to ever meet again.
If that is Tuesday’s form I’m a dutchman.
If that is Tuesday’s form then the three year old fillies are the worst there’s ever been.
…And when you think how much better four fillies (Inspiral, Homeless Songs, Tuesday and Emily Upjohn) have been in front of the rest. The rest must be no better than grade 3 handicappers.
Nah,
All horses have an off day and by far the most likely is that was Tuesday’s fifth race in less than 3 months and she just ran below form.
Value Is EverythingAny praise for Westover ought to come from the Piz Badile run rather than Tuesday’s efforts. As Ginge (and others) have said, you’d have to be questioning whether Tuesday has run to her true ability today. Nevertheless, I’d be much more inclined to bet Westover than Desert Crown at current prices (assuming they both meet in their next engagement).
I’m not convinced Tuesday really stays a mile & a half. She had a good ride in the Oaks and was helped with a steady early pace, a bit of luck with her 2 main rivals having problems and still only just hung on. None of her many full sisters excelled at the distance. Minding also won the Oaks but then reverted to shorter distances and I expect to see the same with Tuesday.
I am not sure whether Westover will beat Desert Crown but the King George is shaping up to be a hell of a race. Let’s hope the main players turn up.
“I’d be much more inclined to bet Westover than Desert Crown at current prices.”
Can’t see a turnaround myself. Desert Crown has only run 3 times compared to Westover’s 6 so open to any amount of improvement, and has beaten him already after just 2. :o)
I’d say he’s no superstar, but French Claim will prove himself to be a pretty decent horse over a staying trip and on softer ground. He went from the front and even when having to pass the baton on, he didn’t stop galloping. For me he deserves marked up a little for all we can see Tuesday wasn’t at her best at all.
Good to see Piz Badile back on track with a decent run.
The winners just very good and looks a horse that will gallop most into submission.
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Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!“All horses have an off day and by far the most likely is that was Tuesday’s fifth race in less than 3 months and she just ran below form.”
More than likely. Horses can suffer from burnout and I suspect that Tuesday was feeling the effects of it.
I always thought that, back in 2011, Dubawi Gold suffered a touch of burnout after being campaigned in a similar way.
After yesterday I have both Desert Crown and Westover rated around 120 but, while I think it would be closer than at Epsom, Desert Crown is the one I’d want to be with.
Richard Kingscote took no chances and hit the front a furlong sooner than he needed to IMO.
Westover is a good colt, but I think Desert Crown is a very good one.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Even a conservative view of the form (with second and third not improving much if at all):
On an official ratings scale I’d rate Westover’s Irish Derby at 120
On a Timeform scale 126
Under both scales Westover still has 3 lbs still to find on Desert Crown on my estimation.
Value Is EverythingStrange that after the English Derby I was thinking how Desert Crown reminded me of Nashwan. With a lovely action and turn of foot and beating a massive priced horse into second (in Nashwan’s case Terimon @ 500/1)
In Nashwan’s year there was another top class middle distance three year old, Old Vic.
On Saturday Westover reminded me of his Irish Derby success, a long striding horse grinding his opposition into submission.Value Is EverythingI would rate Westover 123. Why? because he was beaten under three lengths at Epsom by a horse rated 123 after that performance where he suffered plenty of bad luck. He has also improved since as they went a proper end-to-end gallop in the Irish Derby and the time was pretty decent too.
Timeform rate Westover 127 from 124p.
Piz Badile down 113+ from 115p
French Claim up to 110 from 108
Tuesday reduced by 1 lb 118 from 119pWestover now without the “p” remains 2 lbs behind Desert Crown 129p
Value Is EverythingI still think Epsom would have been a toss up on who would have won had Westover had a clear run – Desert Crown might have the more instant change of gear but Westover is not just a relentless galloper with no speed.
The sectionals for both Epsom and the Curragh make for interesting reading, Westover is probably the one that can maintain his kick for a longer period (he had the quickest final 1F sectional in both races) and given his size/stride (he still seemed a little green when he hit the front on Saturday) he could still be open to more improvement than Desert Crown even though he has had more runs, horses learn at different speeds and he just maybe taking longer than Desert Crown is.
I’d like to see a rematch in the King George. In a 5-/6-runner field there could still be a decent gallop, but no hard-luck stories. Both will be better than their current OR.
Tuesday could be one for the Juddmonte.Tuesday is currently the only one Coolmore have got for any race bar the stayers.
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