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The Prix de Diane is 300 yards shorter and the track is less demanding than Epsom. However, I agree about her being a late foal with a lot more to come. And it could be that the Oaks had more strength in depth.
It’s always a result with question marks on it when a 150-1 shot comes 2nd in a Classic with winning form at 7f…“She’s also a June foal who will still be improving up to six months after others have peaked.”
She’s less than 6 weeks younger than Westover, who has had the same number of career starts as her, though he’s only had 2 starts this year and she has had 4, more than any other runner in the field bar Boundless Ocean.
I think the late foal thing is overstated, plus she doesn’t have a huge frame to grow into. Not saying she won’t win as she may be better than the others at the weights and has been consistent at G1 level, but I don’t think she has the most scope for improvement out of all or even most of the runners.
“No team tactics here then – pretty strong statement from Ballydoyle as to who they thought was the best option to win this race.”
Either because Tuesday is brill, or because their other options were rubbish. We’ll find out soon.
“… at G1 level…”
Consider two hypothetical one mile races:
Race A has Frankel, Brigadier Gerard, El Gran Senor, Warning, Miesque, Zilzal, Dancing Brave, Kingman.
Race B has Rajeem, Simply Perfect, Nahoodh, Music Show, Giofra, Roly Poly, Veracious, Nazeef.
Each of those fields is comprised entirely of Group One winners.
The point is that it isn’t the standing of a race that matters; it’s the standard.
Unusually for him, I think Ian shows more than a bit of one-sided over-confidence here. Maybe it’s due to Tuesday’s Oaks being a rare ante-post victory this year for Chezza. Maybe a case of a big price means not believing what he sees.
Yes Hoo Ya Mal was second in the Derby, but Westover would’ve beaten him fairly easily with a clear run.
Westover would’ve been a clear second in the Derby.Without Emily Upjohn’s stumble and coming wider in the straight, Tuesday would’ve been a clear second in the Oaks.
Yes Tuesday has improvement in her, but the improvement Westover showed from Sandown Trial to Derby was greater than any improvement Tuesday has shown in one race. So up to this point it is Westover who is improving at a faster rate.
Yes the Oaks third (3 1/4 lengths behind) franked the form by winning the French Oaks, but that was at a shorter trip which was expected to help her.
Changingoftheguard franked the form of the Derby. Twice as far behind Westover in the Derby as Nashwa was of Tuesday and would’ve been further than 6 1/2 lengths had Westover got a clear run. Changingoftheguard came out and (not expected to improve and over the same trip) won a Group 2.
Had there been a horse in this race to make it a good test of stamina at the trip I’d have backed Westover today. When the gates open I’ll be hovering over the in-running markets to see who goes on and at what pace. Unless Westover makes the running himself (or at least goes up alongside the front runner to encourage him to go faster) it looks like a slowish pace to me. That should help the horse with most speed, Tuesday (if kept close enough to that pace).
Value Is EverythingAltough changing of the guard won at ascot i still dont think it was a great derby irrelevant of the huge price of the second. The oaks is by far the stronger race with the first 4 very good horses imho. Unless there is a good pace set i cant see westover beating tuesday in a 3 furlong sprint.
“Unusually for him, I think Ian shows more than a bit of one-sided over-confidence here. Maybe it’s due to Tuesday’s Oaks being a rare ante-post victory this year for Chezza.”
Just when I think GT has irritated me beyond redemption, he reminds me why I quite like him actually with a witty well observed remark.
He’s right, I am a bit biased about Tuesday – she did me a rare 2022 ante post good turn at Epsom and I think she’s a filly who hasn’t ever had the credit she deserves.
Also I think it would be sooooo boring here if we all sat on the fence all the time and I’ve never been scared of being wrong.
I saw Westover at Sandown, he ran well, I like the colt.
And he was a bit unlucky at Epsom.
But I do think the Oaks was overall the stronger race and I think the 3lb gender allowance tips it in Tuesday’s favour as I’ve got both her and Westover rated about 115.
We will find out soon enough!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Trouble is the apparent lack of a front runner in this race willing to take them on at a good gallop. French Claim might go forward but this is his first try at 1 1/2 miles and doesn’t exactly look crying out for a step up in distance. So if going to the front French Claim is imo unlikely to set a fast pace.”
GT, obviously the trainer’s aren’t always right but Paddy Twomey was very keen to emphasise after his seasonal reappearance win that the “further the better” for French Claim. He even name-checked a 15f 3yo race for him after that and he said he’d have no problem with it.
Also if there’s a trainer that’s right it’s Paddy Twomey lol!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Westover is a very keen going horse
Rob Hornby did a very good job in the Derby of burying him in mid pack and he settled better
I’d fear he will pull his chance away today in what may get quite tactical
Tuesday wins imo, her one issue is that being drawn 1 she will likely be mid pack on the rail and waiting for gaps too open.
Though her price isn’t exactly drawing me in atm to have a bet
She gets 2/1 or bigger I’d be tempted
Was there much rain fall?
I’m going in again on Tuesday if she goes 2/1
I don’t see too much pace which will suit her more than Westover
Keane does know the course well but so does Ryan Moore and O’Brien farms the race, he knows every blade of grassGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
“Wasn’t Balanchine the last filly to have won an Irish Derby?”
Yes, but can you name the ones that have raced in it since and lost??
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Off the top of my head I think there is 4, 2 for AOB. Qualify and New York Girl (or something similar to that). Qualify won the Epsom Oaks but was way back in both the English and Irish Guineas (although to be fair was keeping on in both) and never landed a blow in the Irish Derby. Tuesday’s better efforts in the Guineas make her a more obvious choice.
I can’t recall there being any obvious male contenders for AOB that year either.
Anyway, has it been a real ambition of AOB to win this race with a filly for some time or does he just not rate his colts at this time?
Because if there ever was a horse to win it for him surely he would have run someone like Minding a few years ago. He did have the 2nd at Epsom that year (US Army Ranger) but the consensus was that it was an average edition of the race.““… at G1 level…”
Consider two hypothetical one mile races:
Race A has Frankel, Brigadier Gerard, El Gran Senor, Warning, Miesque, Zilzal, Dancing Brave, Kingman.
Race B has Rajeem, Simply Perfect, Nahoodh, Music Show, Giofra, Roly Poly, Veracious, Nazeef.
Each of those fields is comprised entirely of Group One winners.
The point is that it isn’t the standing of a race that matters; it’s the standard.”
I can see your point but you missed the word “consistent” when you quoted me. You can get relatively rubbishy G1 races but what are the odds that the 1000 Guineas, the Irish 1000Gns and the Oaks were all rubbish? Rather than a hypothetical race A and race B, consider the average Oaks winner of the past 10 years before Tuesday:
Snowfall, Love, Anapurna, Forever Together, Enable, Minding, Qualify, Taghrooda, Talent, Was. A mix of names, 6 of which went on to win at least one more G1. (One of those who didn’t was Qualify, trained by O’Brien and whose next and last start was in the Irish Derby where she was well beaten, partially answering Nathan’s question).
Tuesday is highly unlikely to be the next Enable. But so far she has held her head up in G1 company 3 times. Westover, once. The others, not or not yet.
“…what are the odds that the 1000 Guineas, the Irish 1000Gns and the Oaks were all rubbish”
This year, I’d say quite short. Inspiral trounced the miling fillies (admittedly, there was no Homeless Songs in the field) without a prep run; okay, Nashwa has given the Oaks form a boost but she was a blatant non-stayer at Epsom.
I’m not convinced by this year’s 3yo filly crop, but I could easily be wrong. Wouldn’t be the first time. 😂
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