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Nice shout with lah ti dar joni, shes definitely progressive enough for this, still very raw but was well in command there
Lot of humming an hawing from the pundits but what do they want to see? Gosden said the ground would be quick enough and that a mile and a half with some cut will be ideal in future. She’s won a shade over 3 lengths and 5 lengths further back to the third. If only all even money shots did that!
It’s only her second run and it’s a trial. We saw Masar winning his trial nine lengths and then beaten next time, we saw Mendelssohn win his trial 18 lengths and then finish last next time. Everybody seems to get a milk bottle in their knickers over wide margin winners and not see that a progression to peak in the Classic is a better method.
A couple of firms showing 13/2 and 6/1 but Lah Ti Dar is generally 4/1 for the Oaks now. Wild Illusion didn’t last long at 16/1 and is 12/1 now after a good Guineas run.
Anyway, I felt Lah Ti Dar might be favourite by 5PM and she is. Happy with 11/1 but it’s a long way off yet. Well done Jonibake on snaring big odds
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Uninspiring Steve? Really? I think this looks like being a high class renewal even at this stage.
Getting worried with September though I have to say. Wanted to see her in the Chester race but she’s not entered.
Laurens might be a bet for this. Certainly bred for the job.
Owner and trainer talking about going for the French Oaks, TG.
Value Is EverythingCashed out one of my September bets and stuck it on La Ti Dar. A saver at the least if September runs.
Massive 180 regards from the previous two pages on Lah Ti Dar for you Steve.
Nothing wrong with that.
Think you’re now correct. Value Is EverythingThanks Ham and Stevie. She did it well enough in the end but I was hoping for a bit more to be honest. Workmanlike but still it looked like a bit of a muddling race and she is still green. The ground at Epsom is unlikely to be as quick and she will improve for the step up in trip. A definite contender at least – I’d quite like to see her run in the Musidora to get her more experience rather than Breakfast With Stars but trust that JG knows best.
Would be good to know what the deal is with September. She hasn’t been entered in any of next weeks Oaks trials so I reckon the next few days will be decisive in telling us whether she will run in the Oaks. I expect to see her entered at York this week – if not I think we can count her out.
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Well done to anybody who got on Lah Ti Dar at a price. I think her price might end up drifting back out a little as we blow through the trials, but she will nevertheless be a leading contender and I’m wishing I had taken Steve’s advice of 11s earlier!
The one who really caught my eye was Happily. I backed her today, but AOB said to the Racing Post:
“Since the start of the season it’s always been the plan to run Happily in the Guineas. She did very well last year and she’s in good form and ready to start off. It’s her first run of the year, and she will improve for the run, but we’re happy with her.”
She definitely shaped like she would improve not only for the run for more of a trip. I also don’t think she handled the dip at Newmarket – she ran on strongest when attacking the finishing hill. I will look through the entries a bit more, but she looks to be Ballydoyle’s best hope and will probably go off a lot shorter than 6s.
I wasn’t going to back Lah Ti Dar but after September missed the Guineas it seemed silly not to take the potential opportunity of sitting with bigger odds this evening.
I maintain it’s an uninspiring race. Nothing there that excites me. The Guineas fillies were pumped by a 66/1 shot. I have my doubts Laurens will stay and September may be a bust this season.
Clemmie has yet to run beyond 6F and is terrible value in my opinion.
Billesdon Brook has been awarded 115 on RPR’s and I don’t think Lah Ti Dar will be too much short of that mark when the dust settles on the Pretty Polly.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
A twitter rumour going about is that she’s had a small setback within the last 7-14 days. Not definitely out of the Oaks but there’s a race against time to get her in the prep race.
I know it wouldn’t happen but is it allowed that she could go straight to epsom? I assume not as I’ve not seen any horse do that on seasonal debut. But the Oaks was her long term target as well rememebr. I just pray she runs in the next couple of weeks.
Of course she would be allowed go straight to Epsom, but whether she could do so and win is another thing altogether. I’d be worried about September myself, as a small filly she should really be well forward at this time of the year, and there’s clearly a struggle to get her fit.
Happily has shaped like she will improve for a step up in trip, but on breeding you couldn’t give her much of chance. Marvellous was tried over 12f, but was well beaten on both occasions and likely a non stayer. Happily is without a doubt a better filly than Marvellous in my eyes, but it’s telling that Aidan wasn’t tempted to try Gleneagles in the Derby despite him being their best 3yo colt that year by some distance. Happily unlikely to take in a trial en route to Epsom, so she will have question marks to answer on the big day.
Lah Ti Dar looked as green as kermit on absinthe again today, as I’ve heard it so wonderfully put, but she remains a filly of huge promise. I think that was a half decent field she put to the sword today, and once again the further they went the better she was.
I’m still holding out on Contingent, who is entered in the Blue Grass Stakes this month. Contrary to the Derby, this looks a wide open Oaks, and I think the Weld filly could go off a lot shorter than the 20/1 currently on offer. The form of her maiden win is working out well, and she has the breeding and the trainer with the know how to get the job done.
Voleur, the following was from the Irish Times last Tuesday. Please remember the Blue Wind entries were made many weeks ago;
Saturday week’s Blue Wind Stakes at the Curragh may see the return to action of Contingent who is already a 20-1 shot for the Oaks on the back of her sole juvenile appearance at Leopardstown last Autumn.
“I had a slight setback with Contingent, nothing major, but she’s probably two weeks behind schedule. The Blue Wind is a definite possibility,” added Weld.Lah Ti Dar was awarded 108 by the Racing Post for her Pretty Polly win, that was just 7 lbs less than Guineas winner Billesdon Brook and a stone higher than her debut run of 94.
Taghrooda recorded a RPR of 105 in winning the Pretty Polly, while Talent scored in the race for a 99 RPR. Both fillies went on to win the Oaks, so in terms of performance level Lah Ti Dar is well positioned, having surpassed two Pretty Polly/Oaks winners from yesteryear.
Talent won the Oaks with a RPR of 115, while Taghrooda scored with a 118 rated performance. If Lah Ti Dar finds 10 lbs between now and the Oaks, she could match Taghrooda’s winning figure.
Others may emerge but who knows how strong they will be. For now, I think Lah Ti Dar is a worthy favourite who could possibly shorten without doing anything.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
September not certain to make The Oaks.
Also mentioned that Happily is likely to go for the Irish 1000G, making her participation in this seeming unlikely.
Nothing special seems to be lurking in the Cheshire Oaks field this year, I’d be astounded should that race throw up a Classic winner.
With defections coming left, right and centre the Oaks is shaping up to be a mightily poor renewal. Lah Ti Dar should really be winning it after that Newmarket performance.
I’m very pleased with O’Briens comments on September. ‘On the way back’ is a positive.
From what I’d heard in the last 48 hours, since O’Brien last mentioned her, she’d had an injury that would rule her out.
In my head, all of my bets and the cash on her had gone down the swanny. O’Brien still believes she could run so that’s good.
I won’t be putting anymore on her for the time being but I won’t be cashing anymore out either. Even though the Bet365 cash out offer on my 25s slips is to double my money.
I agree with Charles about Chester. Looks an awful Cheshire Oaks. As a betting proposition, there’s one horse that screams out to me for that. She could be the only one capable of even running in the Oaks from that field imo. I won’t name her just yet as I’m waiting for all bookies to price the race up tomorrow before I get involved.
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