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“I am surprised the price for Harris has not “shortened” more.”
Alex Castellanos, one of the US ‘veteran’ pollsters believes that the polling co.s are missing one vital factor.
Namely, a large upswing in Republican registration over last few years
“31 states have voter registration by party, 30 of them in the past four years have seen movement towards Republican party”.I haven’t looked too much into it but I think I read that the Trump vote was underestimated in both 2016 and 2020. You’d like to think that the polling organisations have worked that out by now but they may not have.
Similar to the ‘shy Tories’ phenomenon here, people know it’s wrong but they do it anyway 😉
Harris is 1/3 to get most votes to Trump’s 3/1, but having most votes does not matter.
Only a small number of states really count. It’s 5/7 Trump and 7/5 Harris to “win” the election.I do think some are too ashamed to say they’re voting for Trump.
However, I just hope Harris can get the youth to vote in numbers they never have before.Value Is EverythingThe Democrats have long enjoyed the popular vote advantage. Starting with Clinton in 1992, the only time they’ve lost the popular vote is 2004.
What will be will be I suppose, I’m glad this ridiculous circus is coming to an end. We might finally know at some point this week.
Very early but looks like Harris is going to go close to turning this around with Trump …. It’s going to get messy here
Pick 3 on Saturday champion 2025/2026
HDLG says
Very early but looks like Harris is going to go close to turning this around with Trump
Not surprised, being following the US election for a few months, and the way TRUMP speaks about women is disrespectful. From my understanding more women are voting. IOWA Kamala already have a lead, although Donald won’t except it.
You've got to accentuate the positive.
Eliminate the negative.
Latch on to the affirmative.
Don't mess with mister in between.Trump shortening in the market right now. 4/9 Trump, 9/4 Harris.
Value Is EverythingTrump now 1/500 with some bookmakers. It’s a done deal.
Poor old Grover Cleveland. Another of those obscure, almost completely forgotten American Presidents. About the only thing he is remembered for today is being the answer to the perennial pub quiz question “Who is the only President of the United States to serve two non consecutive terms?” Now he can’t even claim that.
Interesting to note Cleveland won the popular vote in the election he lost but was trounced in the electoral college.
Late Guy Fawkes celebrations kicking off in Moscow judging by all the fireworks, didn’t know they celebrated.
The media doing their best to tell us it isn’t a done deal.
For once I hope a political candidate is lying about what he’ll do because there’s trouble ahead for all of us he isn’t.
Democrats partly to blame, not least the ridiculous decision to even entertain the idea of Biden standing again. That cannot have helped. Would they have put up someone other than Harris given more time to decide?
Trump is their useful idiot and I think they’ll find a way of getting rid of him before his term is up. Long odds on not to be President in four years’ time in my book and probably about 50/50 that he even makes it halfway.
I simply cannot understand this cultlike devotion to him. Any one of the constant scandals that come his way would sink just about anyone else but it just don’t make any difference, if anything it seems to help. Why anyone thinks he gives a damn about them is beyond me.
He’ll take America out of the Paris Climate Agreement as he did before. And possibly NATO. Shame on the Republicans for choosing a populist candidate who they knew would be a vote winner but bad for the country/world. And shame on Biden for not stepping down sooner as he’d promised to do. I can’t watch the news as it turns my stomach listening to Trump. He’d better not come on a state visit here. Farage is going to regret being tied to Clacton now, even though he never bothers to go there.
Remember, he’s a political expert. According to himself.
If Biden would have stepped down sooner it would’ve made no difference, if anything it was too soon. Harris took the lead and was favourite to win for a while as her new face momentum took her to the front. But then policies became centre stage and Trump took the lead back.
America has old fashioned values. If looking at which groups Trump did better than what was expected just a month ago. it was with Latinos, Black Men and White Women. ie Yes, in all those groups the Democrats won more votes than Trump, but Harris didn’t win by as many as expected.
The Latinos in particular have an older belief in family values. And although they came to the country by immigration, did not like illegal immigration… And apparently by Harris’s voting record she can be seen as (whether true or not) one of the most left wing in government. Something many Latinios came to the USA to avoid. The USA is still a very religious country and their religious beliefs did not match with Harris’s abortion policies.
Many Black men believed their chance under a Trump economy was greater than under Harris. For a long time with each election the number of Black men voting Republican has been going up. And Harris being seen as a left wing candidate wasn’t what some were looking for.
I also believe the polls over-estimated the number of White women voting Harris. It seems the economy was more important to them than Trump being a XXXX.
I do also wonder just how much sexism came into this. Whether a religious America was ready for a woman President.Value Is EverythingIt was pretty clear as soon as the votes for Florida came in, that Trump would win this election. Yes, he was always going to win Florida, but did much better than expected in Latino and Black areas. As long as that wasn’t purely because Trump lives in Florida… And it wasn’t.
Value Is Everything
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