Derby 2019

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This topic contains 189 replies, has 33 voices, and was last updated by Gingertipster Gingertipster 2 months, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #1432833

    Frenchy15
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    Not a lot Jack, but usually AOB would keep his “number one potential” derby horses apart in trials, which would surely make sense if he thought any 3 of those running on Sunday could win the Derby. I get probably Broome has the experience already of running in the UK and France and this was always the plan and then Japan and AVD had set backs, but outside the Group 1 Guineas, horses don’t tend to win Derbys having finished 3rd & 4th in their trials, pretty much not even 2nd either (discounting a poor renewal in 2017 and Workforce on only his 3rd race in the Derby in 2010).

    #1432835

    Frenchy15
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    Broome will be going Derrinstown as a yardstick….
    Are you suggesting he sends his poorer horses to England for trials to gauge opposition? Not sure thats the case, he has to run his horses somewhere as he has so many and his recent derby winners have a better record in UK trials than IRE trials plus some near misses, US Army Ranger, Cliffs of Moher for example, both ran at Chester and both were AOB first string horses. If anything the Irish trials are less informative as they tend to feature just Irish trained horses, but if he’s doing it to work out his pecking order then that’s my point, as a three he probably doesn’t have a strong derby fancy in there. Maybe I misunderstood what you meant though.

    I should probably change my “its odd” comment, to “its not a good sign”, which it isn’t.

    I wouldn’t pay too much attention to those trends myself, Japan only ran three times so can easily take a big jump up as AOBs can easily do.

    Well up to you obviously on your thought process, but AOBs derby winning horses had already recorded an RPR of 118, 121, 116 & 119 after 3 races (exception being the poor Derby of 2017 and Ruler of the World who ran only twice and even then he’d recorded a better RPR(112) than Japan has done.

    I’ve got some money on Japan antipost at 25s, so I’m not against him at all, but he has a lot to do from here now after a small setback and if he doesn’t run a decent race on Sunday to near a 117/118 rating, I’ll probably discount him.

    #1432837
    hein bollow
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    Broome is a lame duck, like so many of this “master”.
    The only thing he’s good at is winning those dubious Guineas.
    I know this statement won’t be too popular with his fanboys, but watch out how the season will proceed :whistle:

    #1432839

    Frenchy15
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    Bit harsh Hein, he’s won 4 of the last 7 Derbys! I’m a big AOB fan for the record, but I tend to agree on Broome, he does look like he will be the type of 3year old that’s hit his mark at around 115 and not improve much and not be quite good enough for a derby. Could be wrong, Sunday will tell and Australia is such a new Sire, that it’s hard to be strong in that opinion

    #1432847
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    as a three he probably doesn’t have a strong derby fancy in there

    Wouldn’t worry about the 3 running vs eachother if they’ve had slight setbacks. He could’ve ran one for example today vs their Vase winner. Could’ve been beat 5Ls on their reappearance and that’s still a nice reappearance..

    I for one wouldn’t be in the Japan camp yet. Haven’t seen anything that makes me think “wow”. Early days.

    Broome is a lame duck, like so many of this “master”.
    The only thing he’s good at is winning those dubious Guineas.
    I know this statement won’t be too popular with his fanboys, but watch out how the season will proceed :whistle:

    Not a AOB fan boy, but isn’t that a daft thing to say? isn’t he as Frenchy says, quite good at winning Derbys too?

    Hein, is there any trainer you actually like? :unsure:

    You criticise Gosden for not running Calyx in a Guineas and then you also criticise AOB for winning them. :wacko:

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1432850

    Frenchy15
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    In isolation it is but in prep for a derby it’s not really. It comes down to what the definition of the setback is and we’ll find out on Sunday. Missing a week and then having to reroute plans is not a good sign however we look at it even if they run a nice reappearance, we’re talking about the derby here in 3 weeks, you need to be pretty tuned up at this point unless it turns out to be a poor renewal or one of them is actually a superstar(unlikely)

    #1432851
    hein bollow
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    Sure folks, there are not a few punters who would follow AOB over a cliff, but that is not a smart thing to do from my POV, as his fame came from his performance in the past, and I wrote elsewhere that his “glory” is more to thank good old Gallileo. But now this stallion is a grandpa, and the last drop of his juice (if you know what I mean) will probably soon be exploited.
    I confirm Gosden to be a very good trainer Jack, but as the wonderful Jac stated rightly, he is not one for the early classics, and I wouldn’t do this mistake to follow him here ever again.
    Then we have Appleby who is a great trainer, but so far not this season, he just has to get back in the driver’s seat first. So my bottom line is indeed, that at this point of the season none of the trainers can be trusted wholy, so my only ante post bet will remain in the Prince Charles Stakes, not for the Haggas form, but for the brilliance of SOC :whistle:

    #1432853
    hein bollow
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    By the way, there is at least one sole thing that I like about AOB:
    That he calls these money stinking millionaires “lads”!
    “Well, listen Lydia, were absolutely delighted, the lads are over the moon!” :yes:

    #1432854

    Frenchy15
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    You wont like the article in the Racing Post today about the current quality of Galileo’s 2 year olds then Hein!

    #1432855
    hein bollow
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    I don’t know this one yet Frenchy, but then you slightly indicate that he would be still firing :unsure:
    But somewhen not too far away this will come to an end, and will the lads provide any stallion to replace him?
    To my very humble opinion there’s none in sight, would anyone disagree?

    #1432857
    Nathan Hughes
    Nathan Hughes
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    Galileo gets the top mares so it’ll give another stallion(s) a crack to produce better, perhaps?

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1432858
    jackh1092
    jackh1092
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    Hein, i’d probably disagree; but with no certain replacement, as it’s early days for the likes of Camelot + Australia. They look promising don’t they?

    Galileo is 22 and the other “super sire” Dubawi is 18. Neither spring chickens.

    Camelot is the top 2nd crop sire 100 runners- 48 winners.

    I won’t pretend to focus on new sires etc, but i can’t imagine many other owners/breeders have much better to offer?

    Twitter: Jackh1092
    Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

    #1432859
    hein bollow
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    That is at least an optimistic version for the Gallileo fans right Nathan :bye: ?

    #1433021
    hein bollow
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    Jack this is nothing unusual, as you always tend to disagree to what I am saying :yes:
    I am waiting for the day when this will be different, but it might not be too near :unsure:

    #1433022
    hein bollow
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    ..and of course Calyx would have bombed this lame 2000 G lineup, but his trainer was his worst enemy :wacko:
    At least I was right at one thing, as I wrote several months ago that Calyx is the outstanding class horse, not Too Damn Hot :good:

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