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That’s not a good sign though Kev, no-one wants to be missing weeks at this stage of the Derby prep. Also why not send Broome to Chester in that case? AOB loves Chester as a trial meeting.
I’m sure it’s not a big thing, but it’s not ideal. My first ever Derby was 2001, Galileo, not a bad start! I’ve missed only one since. My favourite day of the year! Since that derby though, unless a horse has run only twice in its career(making it entirely possible for a big jump up – Workforce 2010 & Ruler of the World 2013) OR it’s a low quality derby as it was in 2017 based on OR, a horse needs to hit an RPR of at least 117/118 in its previous trial race to win the derby.
Unless it was a 2000 Guineas, only 2 of those horses were beaten into 2nd in their trial as well, ie 10/12 had won their trial race(not including 2000 Guineas).
Japan hit 109 as a 2yr old, and after a little set back, is unlikely to hit 117 on Sunday, nor is AVD if he’s had a little set back also. Broome hit 115 in the Ballysax and so we will see if he is good enough to improve on that for Sunday, he might well do, but people question the form of the Ballysax, so let’s see.
No-one is going to be winning the Derby that ran in the Guineas this year, it was not a good race and Madhmoon the only prominent in the Derby betting (aside Magna Grecia who is staying at a mile) will not stay 12F in the Derby IMO.
I’m somewhat surprised Bangkok isn’t going to run again, his 108 Sandown trial winning RPR is way short of what’s needed, so that probably says it all about his chances.
There doesn’t appear to be much in the trials at Chester and Lingfield this week, unless something pulls out somewhat of a surprise impressive win, therefore the winner of the Derby, looks very likely to be coming from the Derrinstown or the Dante. Based on what I’ve said above and looking at the Dante runners still engaged, the dante looks to be a 2 horse race between Too Darn Hot and Line of Duty. (AOB doesn’t really send his Derby prospects to the Dante).
Line of Duty does indeed look like the Godolphin number 1, with Quorto not going to make it and Al Hilalee on something of a recovery mission after a dreadful 2000 Guineas run.
Already a Group 1 winner with an RPR figure of 114 and beautifully bred for the derby, he has to rate as outstanding value at 16/1 still surely?
I backed Masar last year on the basis of his 117 RPR previous race figure and likelyhood of improvement stepping up to 12F. I could not believe the price he was on the day and I cannot believe the price of Line of Duty right now. How can Japan be at 6s and Line of Duty 16s?
Sure, he has it too prove in the Dante that he has trained from 2 to 3, but Charlie Appleby sounds very confident about him and he has always been aimed at the Derby with Charlie Appleby describing him as “an exciting classic prospect” at the start of the season.
The big worry for me is of course Too Darn Hot, who might be way too good, but 4/1 and 16/1 that’s a big difference, but it might be worth at least a saver on Too Darn Hot before Dante day. The other possibility of course, is that this turns into a low quality derby which affects the trends somewhat.
However, I can’t stop chipping away at the antipost odds, had some more at 16/1 this morning.
Line of Duty 16/1
That’s a very good shout Raymo! Loads to do on form, but very well bred for a derby and certainly worth the risk at 100/1! What are Bet365 doing there(unless they know something we don’t!) Everyone else is at 33s, so I’ve had a bit EW also!
What difference does it make whether Broome runs at Chester or Leopardstown Frenchy?
Would like to see Brockhurst run well if he goes on Sunday!
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Of course it’s far from ideal to have a small setback this close to the Derby, I was more replying to your comment that the decision to send three is odd.
Broome will be going Derrinstown as a yardstick. With Japan & AVD he doesn’t 100% know where he stands but if he runs Broome he will have a horse to gauge them on.
It’s also why he sends some of his poorer horses over to England, so he can gauge the level of the opposition.I wouldn’t pay too much attention to those trends myself, Japan only ran three times so can easily take a big jump up as AOBs can easily do.
Sir Dragonet destroyed them in the Chester Vase and looks useful. I would take the winning margin with a grain of salt however.
I am suspicious as to what he beat Viktor..
And only two starts before the derby is far from ideal AND he needs supplementing
I agree that you can pick holes in his win but Ken Pitterson was raving about how Sir Dragonet looked in the paddock and he ran in the style of my beloved Wicklow Brave [albeit a bit quicker!]. But I think I’ve got a new favourite flat horse. Can’t wait to see him run again ! [and I had 3 pence ew on him, too…]
Looks perfect for the Irish Derby. Will enjoy that stiff finish much better than Epsom for me and a bit of extra time to learn would suit aswell.
Got to imagine if Coolmore have a Camelot colt that won a trial like that on it’s second run they will go the Derby route. Pretty scary for the opposition if they don’t.
Looked to me like it got 1st run on Norway as he was boxed in on the turn as he gained momentum and would appear to be fitter of the two… that said it looked good on the softish ground
Wow that caught me on the hop! Form is suspect but then Ruler of the World didn’t beat much either when he won this in 2013 on only his second race. I’ll be pretty surprised if he doesn’t go to the derby after that personally. Definitely a fly in the ointment!
Not a lot Jack, but usually AOB would keep his “number one potential” derby horses apart in trials, which would surely make sense if he thought any 3 of those running on Sunday could win the Derby. I get probably Broome has the experience already of running in the UK and France and this was always the plan and then Japan and AVD had set backs, but outside the Group 1 Guineas, horses don’t tend to win Derbys having finished 3rd & 4th in their trials, pretty much not even 2nd either (discounting a poor renewal in 2017 and Workforce on only his 3rd race in the Derby in 2010).
Broome will be going Derrinstown as a yardstick….
Are you suggesting he sends his poorer horses to England for trials to gauge opposition? Not sure thats the case, he has to run his horses somewhere as he has so many and his recent derby winners have a better record in UK trials than IRE trials plus some near misses, US Army Ranger, Cliffs of Moher for example, both ran at Chester and both were AOB first string horses. If anything the Irish trials are less informative as they tend to feature just Irish trained horses, but if he’s doing it to work out his pecking order then that’s my point, as a three he probably doesn’t have a strong derby fancy in there. Maybe I misunderstood what you meant though.I should probably change my “its odd” comment, to “its not a good sign”, which it isn’t.
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to those trends myself, Japan only ran three times so can easily take a big jump up as AOBs can easily do.
Well up to you obviously on your thought process, but AOBs derby winning horses had already recorded an RPR of 118, 121, 116 & 119 after 3 races (exception being the poor Derby of 2017 and Ruler of the World who ran only twice and even then he’d recorded a better RPR(112) than Japan has done.
I’ve got some money on Japan antipost at 25s, so I’m not against him at all, but he has a lot to do from here now after a small setback and if he doesn’t run a decent race on Sunday to near a 117/118 rating, I’ll probably discount him.
Broome is a lame duck, like so many of this “master”.
The only thing he’s good at is winning those dubious Guineas.
I know this statement won’t be too popular with his fanboys, but watch out how the season will proceed
Bit harsh Hein, he’s won 4 of the last 7 Derbys! I’m a big AOB fan for the record, but I tend to agree on Broome, he does look like he will be the type of 3year old that’s hit his mark at around 115 and not improve much and not be quite good enough for a derby. Could be wrong, Sunday will tell and Australia is such a new Sire, that it’s hard to be strong in that opinion
as a three he probably doesn’t have a strong derby fancy in there
Wouldn’t worry about the 3 running vs eachother if they’ve had slight setbacks. He could’ve ran one for example today vs their Vase winner. Could’ve been beat 5Ls on their reappearance and that’s still a nice reappearance..
I for one wouldn’t be in the Japan camp yet. Haven’t seen anything that makes me think “wow”. Early days.
Broome is a lame duck, like so many of this “master”.
The only thing he’s good at is winning those dubious Guineas.
I know this statement won’t be too popular with his fanboys, but watch out how the season will proceed Not a AOB fan boy, but isn’t that a daft thing to say? isn’t he as Frenchy says, quite good at winning Derbys too?
Hein, is there any trainer you actually like?
You criticise Gosden for not running Calyx in a Guineas and then you also criticise AOB for winning them.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!In isolation it is but in prep for a derby it’s not really. It comes down to what the definition of the setback is and we’ll find out on Sunday. Missing a week and then having to reroute plans is not a good sign however we look at it even if they run a nice reappearance, we’re talking about the derby here in 3 weeks, you need to be pretty tuned up at this point unless it turns out to be a poor renewal or one of them is actually a superstar(unlikely)
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