May 6, 2019 at 21:30 #1432639
AVD running in the derrinstown as well. 3 derby hopes running in the same trial. Very odd!May 7, 2019 at 11:26 #1432737
Had a good look again at the runners this year and after Mount Everest going out I’ve had a bit more on Line of Duty @ 20/1. Be interesting to see how Japan runs on Sunday, but sounds like he will need the run after a little setback and Broome also interesting to note after his 8L Ballysax run, but I don’t think its a great sign AOB is running his 3 main derby hopes all in the same race.
Does anyone have any comments about Quorto? Will he make it back in time for a prep run at all? Otherwise Line of Duty has to be the Godolphin number 1.
What are peoples views on Too Darn Hot? Derby horse or not?May 7, 2019 at 13:36 #1432745
Just different this year as he doesn’t want to travel his best prospects as both AVD & Japan had an easy week a few weeks back.
It’s not the end of the world, there’s an Epsom course at Ballydoyle anyway that they use to work the Derby hopes.
They were planning to scan Quorto at the end of April, so the Derby would be a million i’d have thought.
LOD & TDH meet in the Dante, that will tell us a pile as to Epsom.May 8, 2019 at 12:16 #1432799raymo61Participant
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I have just had a very speculative bet on RAKAN at 100/1 with bet365 because it is entered in the Derrinstoun and if he runs and runs well then he won’t be that price afterwards and he has been well talked of and I am rambling now but was third behind Norway first time out at two!!May 8, 2019 at 12:43 #1432801
That’s not a good sign though Kev, no-one wants to be missing weeks at this stage of the Derby prep. Also why not send Broome to Chester in that case? AOB loves Chester as a trial meeting.
I’m sure it’s not a big thing, but it’s not ideal. My first ever Derby was 2001, Galileo, not a bad start! I’ve missed only one since. My favourite day of the year! Since that derby though, unless a horse has run only twice in its career(making it entirely possible for a big jump up – Workforce 2010 & Ruler of the World 2013) OR it’s a low quality derby as it was in 2017 based on OR, a horse needs to hit an RPR of at least 117/118 in its previous trial race to win the derby.
Unless it was a 2000 Guineas, only 2 of those horses were beaten into 2nd in their trial as well, ie 10/12 had won their trial race(not including 2000 Guineas).
Japan hit 109 as a 2yr old, and after a little set back, is unlikely to hit 117 on Sunday, nor is AVD if he’s had a little set back also. Broome hit 115 in the Ballysax and so we will see if he is good enough to improve on that for Sunday, he might well do, but people question the form of the Ballysax, so let’s see.
No-one is going to be winning the Derby that ran in the Guineas this year, it was not a good race and Madhmoon the only prominent in the Derby betting (aside Magna Grecia who is staying at a mile) will not stay 12F in the Derby IMO.
I’m somewhat surprised Bangkok isn’t going to run again, his 108 Sandown trial winning RPR is way short of what’s needed, so that probably says it all about his chances.
There doesn’t appear to be much in the trials at Chester and Lingfield this week, unless something pulls out somewhat of a surprise impressive win, therefore the winner of the Derby, looks very likely to be coming from the Derrinstown or the Dante. Based on what I’ve said above and looking at the Dante runners still engaged, the dante looks to be a 2 horse race between Too Darn Hot and Line of Duty. (AOB doesn’t really send his Derby prospects to the Dante).
Line of Duty does indeed look like the Godolphin number 1, with Quorto not going to make it and Al Hilalee on something of a recovery mission after a dreadful 2000 Guineas run.
Already a Group 1 winner with an RPR figure of 114 and beautifully bred for the derby, he has to rate as outstanding value at 16/1 still surely?
I backed Masar last year on the basis of his 117 RPR previous race figure and likelyhood of improvement stepping up to 12F. I could not believe the price he was on the day and I cannot believe the price of Line of Duty right now. How can Japan be at 6s and Line of Duty 16s?
Sure, he has it too prove in the Dante that he has trained from 2 to 3, but Charlie Appleby sounds very confident about him and he has always been aimed at the Derby with Charlie Appleby describing him as “an exciting classic prospect” at the start of the season.
The big worry for me is of course Too Darn Hot, who might be way too good, but 4/1 and 16/1 that’s a big difference, but it might be worth at least a saver on Too Darn Hot before Dante day. The other possibility of course, is that this turns into a low quality derby which affects the trends somewhat.
However, I can’t stop chipping away at the antipost odds, had some more at 16/1 this morning.
Line of Duty 16/1May 8, 2019 at 12:51 #1432802
That’s a very good shout Raymo! Loads to do on form, but very well bred for a derby and certainly worth the risk at 100/1! What are Bet365 doing there(unless they know something we don’t!) Everyone else is at 33s, so I’ve had a bit EW also!May 8, 2019 at 13:30 #1432809jackh1092Participant
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What difference does it make whether Broome runs at Chester or Leopardstown Frenchy?
Would like to see Brockhurst run well if he goes on Sunday!
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!May 8, 2019 at 14:11 #1432810
Of course it’s far from ideal to have a small setback this close to the Derby, I was more replying to your comment that the decision to send three is odd.
Broome will be going Derrinstown as a yardstick. With Japan & AVD he doesn’t 100% know where he stands but if he runs Broome he will have a horse to gauge them on.
It’s also why he sends some of his poorer horses over to England, so he can gauge the level of the opposition.
I wouldn’t pay too much attention to those trends myself, Japan only ran three times so can easily take a big jump up as AOBs can easily do.May 8, 2019 at 15:51 #1432813viktors89Participant
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Sir Dragonet destroyed them in the Chester Vase and looks useful. I would take the winning margin with a grain of salt however.May 8, 2019 at 15:58 #1432814raymo61Participant
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I am suspicious as to what he beat Viktor..
And only two starts before the derby is far from ideal AND he needs supplementingMay 8, 2019 at 16:39 #1432817moehatParticipant
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I agree that you can pick holes in his win but Ken Pitterson was raving about how Sir Dragonet looked in the paddock and he ran in the style of my beloved Wicklow Brave [albeit a bit quicker!]. But I think I’ve got a new favourite flat horse. Can’t wait to see him run again ! [and I had 3 pence ew on him, too…]May 8, 2019 at 17:10 #1432820
Looks perfect for the Irish Derby. Will enjoy that stiff finish much better than Epsom for me and a bit of extra time to learn would suit aswell.May 8, 2019 at 17:45 #1432825botchy1Participant
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Got to imagine if Coolmore have a Camelot colt that won a trial like that on it’s second run they will go the Derby route. Pretty scary for the opposition if they don’t.May 8, 2019 at 17:57 #1432826IgorBiscanParticipant
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Looked to me like it got 1st run on Norway as he was boxed in on the turn as he gained momentum and would appear to be fitter of the two… that said it looked good on the softish groundMay 8, 2019 at 18:42 #1432832
Wow that caught me on the hop! Form is suspect but then Ruler of the World didn’t beat much either when he won this in 2013 on only his second race. I’ll be pretty surprised if he doesn’t go to the derby after that personally. Definitely a fly in the ointment!
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