The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

Derby 2019

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Derby 2019

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 190 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #1402678
    bozlikebozlike
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1678

    Wouldn’t even slightly Bobby. Dermot Weld is known for bringing a horse along, much in the manner of Sir Michael Stoute. Very rarely does he house a star juvenile, they’re generally a work in progress.

    Rakan wasn’t far enough along to contest a black type event at two and only debuted in October, so he was clearly fairly backward. Sea The Stars’ progeny all seem to follow this pattern also so I’m sure the progression from two to three will be significant :good:

    @TomBarkley87
    topweighttom.blogspot.com

    #1402680
    Bobby BluebellBobby Bluebell
    Participant
    • Total Posts 216

    I wonder will we see him in the Ballysax first?

    #1416888
    Nathan HughesNathan Hughes
    Participant
    • Total Posts 22219

    With Quorto ruled out of the Guineas and seemingly this I’ve fired another bullet in the shape of Line of Duty at 25’s sportsbook and Paddy. He’s gone a similar path to that of Masar and Appleby sounds keen for this race. He’ll have enough speed for the course.
    TDH way too short in the betting for this at this stage, I’m thinking more Dawn Approach than New Approach and not even sure Gosden would take the gamble if he felt he wouldn’t stay.

    Member since March 2008
    #1416912
    Middle_Of_MarchMiddle_Of_March
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2674

    Only one I’m interested in at this stage is Dubai Warrior at 12/1.

    However, it’s a pretty poor price.

    In fact, in a year where TDH is the most anticipated three year old in years, how on earth can bookmakers justify 5 horses at 12s or shorter? After most haven’t even run as three year olds yet? It’s very poor in my opinion.

    I don’t think 12s is a great price for Dubai Warrior but I’m somewhat tempted. Form has taken plenty of boosts already on his debut run and I may just back him. We shall see.

    #1418097
    Illavim
    Participant
    • Total Posts 97

    Liked the way Eminence won his race at Leopardstown, waiting for NRNB before dabbling though.

    #1418102
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1776

    My one worry with Dubai warrior would be that mootasadir is much much better on the all weather than turf

    #1418229
    KevMcKevMc
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1250

    Not sure if you’re aware but Dubai Warrior had a setback and looks like he’ll miss the Dante –

    https://www.skysports.com/racing/news/12040/11695597/gosden-eyes-the-pavilion-stakes-at-ascot-with-calyx

    #1423704
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 972

    Bit late to the party on this thread, but nicely invested anti-post now, took some Japan at 25s last year and also Line of Duty at 33s. Just got on at 33s with Bangkok just as the Sandown Trial went off as the way he was being backed suggested 33s would be big. I’m really fascinated to watch how Australia does with his first crop of 3 year olds this year. He started pretty badly really with his 2 year olds not doing much, but just now showing signs that he will be interesting to follow both this year and subsequent years for the Derby, with Broome winning the Ballysax by 8L and Bangkok winning nicely in the Sandown Trial.

    The one I am most invested in at this stage though is Mount Everest. This horse took a while to learn his racing, but made a rapid improvement in the Grp2 Beresford Stakes finishing a neck second to Japan. The bookmakers made a wild overeaction to that by pricing Japan up at 10s and Mount Everest at 40s for the Derby. So I took the 40s and some more 40s in March. Mount Everest travelled really well that day and probably hit the front too early which meant he got collared on the line by Japan. He’s very well thought of, as he’s gone off 11/4, 4/9, 6/4 & 11/8 in his 4 races so far. AOB said after the Beresford that he will be a nice middle distance colt this year, so clearly being aimed at the Derby and he’s beautifully bred for it. My only concern at this stage is that his brother Yucatan didn’t really progress well from 2 to 3, but he wasn’t as well thought of, certainly in the betting, going of at 10/1, 4/1 & 10/1 in his first 3 races.

    Mount Everest is listed up in the AOB Racing Post stable tour as a Dark Horse. 2 years ago the horse listed as a dark horse was Cliffs of Moher who very nearly won the derby that year.

    ME will need to run a nice trial race in either the Derrinstown or Chester to put himself firmly in with a chance and is now just a 20/1 shot for the Derby, but still a good anti-post in what looks an open derby at this stage.

    Mount Everest 20/1

    #1423756
    IgorBiscan
    Participant
    • Total Posts 49

    I like Constantinople but don’t know if its more of a St leger aim….. though Broome looked impressive in the Bally….

    #1432582
    IgorBiscan
    Participant
    • Total Posts 49

    Does anyone know why Japan is out of the Chester vase??

    #1432584
    bozlikebozlike
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1678

    Igor Biscan, phenomenal username. Thanks for the memories :heart:

    It’s the Derrinstown on Sunday big Igor, he could end up there.

    @TomBarkley87
    topweighttom.blogspot.com

    #1432586
    IgorBiscan
    Participant
    • Total Posts 49

    O’Brien said yesterday that he was going for the Vase, yet today he has been scratched from it ? Guess he must be going there then…

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2019/may/05/aidan-obrien-doubles-up-hermosa-1000-guineas-set-sights-on-derby-horse-racing-tips

    Haha loved Big Igor running round like a headless chicken, he had heart though… :good:

    #1432624
    IgorBiscan
    Participant
    • Total Posts 49

    Mount Everest had a little setback last week which means he is going to have a month off. That means he will be out of the Derby picture but we will have him back at the back-end of the year,” said O’Brien.

    https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/leading-derby-hope-japan-to-start-classic-campaign-at-leopardstown-on-sunday/379513

    #1432633
    Frenchy15
    Participant
    • Total Posts 972

    This season is jinxed! :cry: had my two largest antipost bets ever on Too Darn Hot in the Guineas and Mount Everest in the derby. I think I shall not be playing much antipost at the moment :cry:

    #1432638
    FinalFurlong91
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1776

    Reading obreins comments itll be Interesting to see how Japan and broome are priced up for the derrinstown

    Doesn’t sound like Japan will be given a hard race so broome will likely win

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 190 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.