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I respect Simon but I think his Derby summary is conflated with an observation he made about Anapurna and Pink Dagwood in the Oaks – that the latter made her move too early, expended too much energy at a crucial stage of the race and that’s why she lost. However, both Ryan Moore and Frankie, and also Fallon, have kicked for home at a similar stage and won Epsom Clssics.
It’s an interesting article but I’m not taking it as gospel.Also, most of those who raced prominently in the Derby were inferior horses or non-stayers. Put North Light in that field and he races where Telecaster was and yet wins.
Jockeys on non-Coolmore horses might (seemingly wisely) think with a probability of Sir Dragonet and Broome out the back, it’s in their best interests to slow the field down, allowing (in theory) little chance pacemakers to go off in front. Sovereign is imo the most likely pacemaker and got within 3 lengths of Broome last time out in the Derrinstown. Therefore, if (and I know it’s a big “IF”) getting loose on the lead without going an overly strong pace, his proximity to Broome suggests will have a chance of staying there. Currently 159/1, I’ve had a few quid on. Remember Arabian Queen?!
Unfortunately I didn’t do the same in the Irish Derby.
Value Is Everything
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