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You can safely discount anything that just ran in the 3.30 at Leopardstown. It looked a very good maiden on paper beforehand – it clearly wasn’t.
Titus’ claims for this look shaky.
I don’t think Tartini is entered for the Derby actually! Gord…
I don’t think Tartini is entered for the Derby actually! Gord…
Neither was ‘Golden Horn’ at this stage of precedings Zark but come 18th May at about 3,05pm he will be.
See CRACKSMAN been enter for race nice to see that while the horse i think win arc at 33/1 is the Andre Fabre horse who is
AKHIRO when you think Waldgeist was talk of more of a irish derby type.No shock if this one comes up at Epsom.I was surprised Auckland was favourite for that maiden today. He went off a bit too hard and was desperately disappointing.
Haripour simply looked a slow horse.
You can put a line through Venice Beach for the Derby but he ran a decent race today and much can happen before the St Leger, which looks much more likely to be his level of ability. I felt it gave some encouragement today and I would think he can win a maiden next tine and build from that.
I felt that Venice Beach and the filly Longing in the following race were Aidan’s best runners today. Her stablemate Bound was a poor option today, she had little bits of form from last season but here line of efforts resembled a mobile phone number as most times it seems one of the unraced ones proves good enough. Longing looks a shoo-in for a maiden next time, she looks like big improvement is on the cards from this effort.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve any views on news on Cracksman and Akihiro and could meet each other at Newmarket in the same there owners have won before.Intello for Fabre and Golden Horn.The Gerry Fielden.I hope they not meet each other to be hones unless it is at Epsom.
I don’t think Tartini is entered for the Derby actually! Gord…
Neither was ‘Golden Horn’ at this stage of precedings Zark but come 18th May at about 3,05pm he will be.
I believe there was just a second entry stage, and still they elected not to enter him…
Aidan is on record as not ruling Churchill out of the Derby, unlike Gleneagles (also out of a Kingmambo mare) who was always considered a miler through and through. Churchill’s dam was injured as a 2yo, so never had a chance to run beyond 5f, her sister out of Galileo was a 10f horse (never tried further). And Aloft who was also a Galileo out of a Kingmambo mare (who won a 5f G3 as a 3yo) won the 2 mile Queens Vase. Churchill runs like a horse who would easily get 10f, he relaxes and saves himself, and the great Vincent O’Brien said that 10f horses with great speed can win the Derby.
Churchill looks to me like he’d get the Derby trip unlike his other Dewhurst winners, all of which never went on to Epsom.
Venice Beach is appealing on paper but I’ll wait until nearer the time, it’s not a Camelot/Australia year where the winner is obvious 6 months earlier.
I thought Venice Beach was worth a couple of quid for the St Leger at 50/1. It’s not very often that the top colts end up going to Doncaster and if Venice Beach turns out to be not quite good/fast enough for Epsom he could ultimately take the route to the Leger. At 50/1 it looked worth an early pop.
Could be a good call, Venice Beach surely won’t go Derby?! Early bets on Capri and Eminent remain all for now, may wait until the day.
Added Cliffs of Moher @ 16’s to win
That makes 3 now with
SJL E/W @ 50’s. Win @ 33’s, 25’s & 20’s
Cracksman E/W @ 33’s & 25’sHopefully on the day of the race i’m not looking about for something to get my money back on.
Cliffs Of Moher was a horse I picked out as an interesting Galileo early last year. He looked nothing special on his debut but was totally different next time, blitzing his field from the front.
I was interested in him as a Guineas prospect but all the vibes said he wasn’t going to Newmarket.
I am concerned as to whether he will get a mile and a half, having looked sharp enough over 7F last year. His style of win was atypical of a Derby winner, unless he is going to be another Slip Anchor.
I have a feeling that if Cliffs Of Moher is Aidan’s best shot it might be because he has a slow bunch of stayers again. I described his Derby runners as “Boats” before Golden Horn’s Derby and although that might seem harsh, I genuinely felt they lacked the pace to get involved. Last year most of his Derby team fell apart, leaving U S Army Ranger as his best shot.
The Ballysax seemed uninspiring. Capri looks slow and Douglas MacArthur was hit and miss at best last season. They will probably come on from the Ballysax but I noticed that Rekindling was raised 25 lbs by the Racing Post to try to make some sense of the Ballysax form and that’s a worry for me.
I feel Andre Fabre has as good a hand as any for this year’s Derby. I feel Waldgeist might be considered his best hope but I find it hard to excuse his 3rd place run behind Frankuus. Although Waldgeist gained revenge next time, it was over 10F on very soft ground on 30th October, a real end of season slog and horses in behind, like Capri, Douglas MacArthur and Taj Mahal haven’t really done a lot for the form to be honest. I feel Epsom might not suit Waldgeist unless it is soft ground.
Plumatic is a horse that Andre Fabre holds in high regard. He won his maiden easily and the son of Dubawi clearly is a nice prospect. You would think that they would be unlikely to be able to get more than one run into him before Epsom though, so his next start is going to be key.
I Like Akihiro, the Deep Impact colt only just failed by a short head to catch Jean-Claude Rouget’s Neguev on debut but was hampered as the So You Think colt drifted across the track. The stewards awarded Akihiro the race. It is Akihiro’s next race that makes him arguably as good as anything in the Derby picture at the moment. Like his first race he finished his race really strongly to win well and importantly the future Lagardere winner National Defense was third that day. It looks solid form.
The trouble with Akihiro us that Andre Fabre has stuck him in the Derby but also added that it is partly as a measure to make sure he does not clash with Plumatic. He explained that when you have two good horses you want to keep them apart. I am hoping that that this means Plumatic may run in the French Derby.
Akihiro is being sent to the Fielden, a race that wasn’t much significance on the Derby front in recent times but Golden Horn proved that it can be a stepping stone to Epsom. He is likely to face Cracksman there and you would say the Fabre colt will go off favourite for that race, with his form clearly in excess of the Gosden Frankel colt at this stage.
I have decided to back Akihiro as my first serious bet for the Derby. Churchill is no value and Cliffs Of Moher is short enough in my opinion.
It’s been an uninspiring Derby thus far and I just have a feeling that several of Aidan’s look a bit ponderous this year. Just occasionally the home teams look weak and this may be one vintage where the French have the answer. Akihiro has tended to sit and then finish strongly, which could be a weapon at Epsom.
I feel 25/1 is some value. Not as much confidence as Al Wukair but if Akihiro lands the Fielden, those odds will be long gone.
2017 Derby Akihiro 25/1 is my first proper bet.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As mentioned elsewhere on this forum, Monarchs Glen’s performance at Kempton yesterday was very taking. Immediately cut to a best price of 25/1 for the Derby; he would look to be a serious contender.
Monarchs Glen isn’t entered for the Derby, they didn’t even take advantage of the supplementary stage a week or two ago for some reason. He was running over 1m3f yesterday, so they surely expect him to stay the distance.
Akihiro was not left in the Fielden Stakes. Instead, he runs at Chantilly on Sunday in the Noailles, a 10F Group 3 race. I think Snow Knight won the race back in 1974 before winning the Derby and I seem to recall Bering winning it before meeting Dancing Brave in the Arc back in 86.
4.10 Chantilly Sunday Akihiro puts his reputation on the line.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Monarchs Glen isn’t entered for the Derby, they didn’t even take advantage of the supplementary stage a week or two ago for some reason. He was running over 1m3f yesterday, so they surely expect him to stay the distance.
Gosden has said he’ll head for the classic trial at Sandown. So They must be thinking now if he wins that well then probably goes to the dante and wins that, they’d supplement him. Otherwise not.
He also said that Cracksman goes for the Epsom trial.
The three that interest me most are Ballydoyle’s Cliffs of Moher 12/1, Sir John Lavery 16/1, and Fabre’s Waldgeist 20/1.
Cliffs Of Moher’s victory over stablemate, Order of the Garter has since worked out to be very strong form.The question mark is whether he has enough stamina from his Dam’s side, being out of a Dansili mare who never raced further than 7F, and never won further than 5F. The same question marks hang over Sir John.
I was impressed by the way Waldgeist won when stepped up in trip at Saint-Cloud last October, and I’m hoping she will be Fabre’s main Epsom hope.
I’m going to wait until Churchill blitzes them in the Guineas (hopefully), shortens into stupid prices, and lay him all day whilst filling my boots with this lot.
I’m going to wait until Churchill blitzes them in the Guineas (hopefully), shortens into stupid prices, and lay him all day whilst filling my boots with this lot.
If that arises i think i would join you in laying Churchill as well Voleur
You guys must be soothsayers because for me it’s too early to think about what’s going to win the derby.
I can hardly pick the winner on the day of the race let alone now
You guys must be soothsayers because for me it’s too early to think about what’s going to win the derby.
I can hardly pick the winner on the day of the race let alone now
Lol judge .. these guys are way behind, the jumps pundits on here started discussing who will win the 2018 Grand National about a minute after One For Arthur passed the winning post
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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