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John Gosden’s Frankel colt Erdogan is one of the most intriguing contenders for me. His mother is Dar Re Mi who was an excellent and willing filly in her day. She was the dam of So Mi Dar, who was a leading Oaks contender before her setback.
Dar Re Mi has had a foal to Dubawi since Erdogan and we may see that filly this season. The Fugue was also in foal to Dubawi and had the filly in January 2016. Said to look almost identical to her mother The Fugue’s filly will be fascinating to see when she reaches the racecourse.
In the meantime, it is possible that Erdogan could be capable of matching his breeding and his unknown ability still appeals more to me at 50/1 than some of those whom we have already seen and can safely put a pen through for various reasons at the same odds.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
John Gosden’s Frankel colt Erdogan is one of the most intriguing contenders for me. His mother is Dar Re Mi who was an excellent and willing filly in her day. She was the dam of So Mi Dar, who was a leading Oaks contender before her setback.
Dar Re Mi has had a foal to Dubawi since Erdogan and we may see that filly this season. The Fugue was also in foal to Dubawi and had the filly in January 2016. Said to look almost identical to her mother The Fugue’s filly will be fascinating to see when she reaches the racecourse.
In the meantime, it is possible that Erdogan could be capable of matching his breeding and his unknown ability still appeals more to me at 50/1 than some of those whom we have already seen and can safely put a pen through for various reasons at the same odds.
How do you feel about Cracksman, Steve?
I watched Cracksman’s race live on the day. I had actually backed Gosden’s other horse that day, Stradivarius, a son of Sea The Stars, because I felt his experience might play a part. I had pencilled Stradivarius in as a type who might land a maiden late in the season and perhaps be reasonably rated for handicaps at 10F plus as a 3yo but watching him that day he looked like he will need a mile and a half this year.
At the business end of the race I actually felt Wild Tempest was going to prevail initially but Cracksman outstays him in the last half furlong.
This was one of those races worth watching again from the start for clues. Drawn on the wide right as we look at the stalls, Wild Tempest misses the start slightly and the horse drawn in the next stall to him, Bedouin, cuts right across coming out of the stalls and knocks Wild Tempest out wide, further detached from an already isolated draw. Wild Tempest recovers and is prominent most of the way, he never gets any cover and it’s hard to tell if it would have helped him to perhaps race less freely.
If you watch Cracksman and Wild Tempest through the race, it is the winner who comes under urging first, Rab Havlin is nudging him along from more than 3 furlongs out and Wild Tempest appears to be travelling more easily. Looking at the two colts, Wild Tempest has a quicker action than Cracksman and he looks as if he might be a miler, whereas Cracksman takes fewer but longer strides and may be best at 10F+, as a horse who comes with a long and sustained run, where he will stretch, rather than quicken. He steadily reels Wild Tempest in and perhaps the bump at the start and racing without cover took their toll on the runner up late, it certainly can’t have helped that he hung right across the field to join Cracksman in the finish.
I was sufficiently impressed to put both in the notebook, reasoning that they make take different paths this year.
With Frankel, we have yet to see how his progeny will train on and what sort of distance they are likely to be effective over. That makes ante-post betting a little tricky but Cracksman is in good hands and has the similar look to Golden Horn regarding profile and connections. Regarding the strength of the maiden he competed in, Stradivarius won narrowly next time but that will not stack up for Classics. Both the 1-2 from the Newmarket maiden need marked improvement but you can almost set your watch that they will, Wild Tempest is out of the former Gosden inmate Raven’s Pass and you would be surprised if he isn’t decent this season.
You can watch the race here:-
http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20161019/2637393/15748420
As I said, races are often worth seeing several times to pick up more clues to assess the performance.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Great analysis Steve. I’m hoping a few of these Frankels might turn out to be classic contenders this season to prove that he’s not just passing on his precocity and raw talent.
Some of you may have, understandably, missed an interesting debut from a derby entrant on Friday. Giant’s Treasure won in eye catching fashion in the 6.15 maiden at Wolverhampton (replay on the ATR site).
Now obviously the fact he’s debuted on the all weather on a Friday night is probably a slight concern, however, his breeding and the manner of his victory mean that he looks an interesting horse for later in the year to me.
Jack Hobbs won at Wolverhampton and went on to finish 2nd in the Derby so wouldn’t let that put you off, however Richard Hannon training a Derby horse would!
I’m pretty sure Giant’s Treasure holds a Derby entry. Hannon said a few years ago that they are looking into getting more decent middle distance horses in the yard rather than just the good two year olds/sprint miler types. He Ventura Storm(Zoffany) run well in the Leger last year and will probably have more contenders for the Derby as the years go on. Humphrey Bogart ran well in some good races last year and that has to be a good sign for Hannon considering that one was sired by Tagula
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Love the knowledge of you chaps, after 6 months of Jumps racing I literally can barely remember any 2yo horses let alone who’s in the market for these races, being able to read these threads gets me back into the swing of it and
I’m pretty sure Giant’s Treasure holds a Derby entry. Hannon said a few years ago that they are looking into getting more decent middle distance horses in the yard rather than just the good two year olds/sprint miler types. He Ventura Storm(Zoffany) run well in the Leger last year and will probably have more contenders for the Derby as the years go on. Humphrey Bogart ran well in some good races last year and that has to be a good sign for Hannon considering that one was sired by Tagula
Giant’s Treasure is in The Derby Nathan. It would be great for the Hannon’s if they could start getting some good 1 and a half mile horses. For all the expensive horses the O’Briens, Stoute’s, Gosden’s etc get, most of them are pretty poor when you get down to it. None of those stables managed to put forward a really good one last year, in what seemed a modest renewal.
Giant’s Treasure was a nice winner but Jack Hobbs made his debut in December and coming out in March gives the Hannon horse a lot less time to make the improvement towards a Classic that arrives soon enough in the season. I would say a ball park figure of 80 would be what we could give the colt at this stage. I have no idea what the professional raters have given him but that would be roughly where he sits for me at the moment.
I am not averse to the idea of a horse making an all-weather debut but I like to see them move onto the turf fairly quickly and translate the promise to that surface.
I have two Hannon colts from the all-weather in my 20 to follow for this season. I am not sure if they will be aimed at the Derby, one seems highly unlikely based on breeding but I just felt they were two who had a lot more to come.
Funnily enough they made their debuts within an hour of each other at Kempton in December.
The two colts, for anyone interested are:-
MEDAHIM:-
Bay Colt Foaled 2nd April (My dad’s Birthday)
By Kodiac out of Novel Fun
Made debut at Kempton on 7th December in 6F Maiden. He was settled in midfield before he came through going well and quickened up nicely to stretch more than 3 lengths clear in easy fashion. Sire Kodiac is more associated with speed but this looks a well made colt capable of much better. He looks to me that he will act on turf and his Racing Post Rating of 87 can be left well behind. I’ll be disappointed if he can’t move into three figure ratings in time. A 2000 Guineas entry suggests that they think a bit of him and he’s potentially smart. You can watch him here:-
http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20161207/2649705/15834585
Obviously hard to tell how far he will stay but he looks sure to get 7F and it’s not as if he used early speed to put the race to bed. Being able to settle and quicken always means there is more chance of him getting a mile. On balance I would say he would.
SON OF THE STARS:-
Bay Colt Foaled 28th February
By Delegator out of Michelle Shift
This colt made his debut on the same card as Medahim but over 2F further at a mile. Despite the name alluding to Sea The Stars, he is actually by Delegator. This sire went off 3/1F for the 2000 Guineas but in retrospect there was no disgrace in being second to Sea The Stars that day.
Son Of The Stars was pushed along after leaving the stalls to get a prominent position but once there the jockey was happy to settle him in in about third place, tracking the pace. You can see him in the white colours near the rail lobbing away comfortably and you could see he was travelling like the winner from a long way home. Once they start picking up in front he gets pushed to go after them and fairly quickly puts the race to bed. He doesn’t have the turn of foot of Medahim but is more steady in the way he gets away from his field. The further he goes, the better he looks and he is well on top at the line. It was an excellent debut that can be watched here:-
http://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/video/20161207/2649685/15834682
The Racing Post gave him a rating of 80 for this but that seriously underrates his potential in my opinion. He also has a 2000 Guineas entry and clearly already got the mile, looking strong in the finish as well. Again, the fact that he can sit in behind is helpful.
In a year of disappointment from most of the earlier 2yos I feel these two Hannon colts looked as good a prospect as anything he has in the yard. I think both are worth following.
Back to the Derby itself and I cannot recall a year with so much dross in the betting for the race. There is nothing you could confidently back at this stage but tons that you can rule out.
I hope the two colts above are interesting to readers and I am waiting to see where they appear next.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Aidan is on record as not ruling Churchill out of the Derby, unlike Gleneagles (also out of a Kingmambo mare) who was always considered a miler through and through. Churchill’s dam was injured as a 2yo, so never had a chance to run beyond 5f, her sister out of Galileo was a 10f horse (never tried further). And Aloft who was also a Galileo out of a Kingmambo mare (who won a 5f G3 as a 3yo) won the 2 mile Queens Vase. Churchill runs like a horse who would easily get 10f, he relaxes and saves himself, and the great Vincent O’Brien said that 10f horses with great speed can win the Derby.
Churchill looks to me like he’d get the Derby trip unlike his other Dewhurst winners, all of which never went on to Epsom.
Venice Beach is appealing on paper but I’ll wait until nearer the time, it’s not a Camelot/Australia year where the winner is obvious 6 months earlier.
Thanks for putting up those replays Steve, first time I’ve seen them, both very eye catching runs. Nice to know Hannon may have a couple of good ones on his hands. Son of the Stars looked to me as if he wanted everything to go faster and couldn’t wait for the jockey to let him go a bit like walking a pulling dog up to the park and seeing it shoot off when let off the lead. He impressed me more of the two so it will be interesting to see where they end up. I think Son of the Stars would have to relax more if stepping up in trip but that often comes with age and a bit more experience.
I thought of you earlier Steve when my brother popped around and asked me to put on a couple of bets on the Football for him. I saw that Cloth of the Stars was running at Saint Cloud and had a token couple of quid on him. It was a group 3 and he got the job done nicely enough to suggest he has retained his ability for the forthcoming season, he got chased down late on by one but never looked like getting beat and they pulled clear of the rest.
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Aidan is on record as not ruling Churchill out of the Derby, unlike Gleneagles (also out of a Kingmambo mare) who was always considered a miler through and through. Churchill’s dam was injured as a 2yo, so never had a chance to run beyond 5f, her sister out of Galileo was a 10f horse (never tried further). And Aloft who was also a Galileo out of a Kingmambo mare (who won a 5f G3 as a 3yo) won the 2 mile Queens Vase. Churchill runs like a horse who would easily get 10f, he relaxes and saves himself, and the great Vincent O’Brien said that 10f horses with great speed can win the Derby.
Churchill looks to me like he’d get the Derby trip unlike his other Dewhurst winners, all of which never went on to Epsom.
Venice Beach is appealing on paper but I’ll wait until nearer the time, it’s not a Camelot/Australia year where the winner is obvious 6 months earlier.
I thought Venice Beach was worth a couple of quid for the St Leger at 50/1. It’s not very often that the top colts end up going to Doncaster and if Venice Beach turns out to be not quite good/fast enough for Epsom he could ultimately take the route to the Leger. At 50/1 it looked worth an early pop.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Looking at Rivet again, I still can’t see him as a Derby horse.
I backed him ante-post for the Racing Post Trophy at 7/1 in the belief that he was a faster horse than Capri, who I felt was bad value because he seems to lack pace.
Looking towards the Derby before the Doncaster Group 1 and pondering whether Rivet was worth an ante-post I just couldn’t convince myself he would/will stay that far. In the end Capri was pulled out and Yucatan went off favourite in his place. Rivet ended up making all and fending them off that day, runner up Yucatan had looked a dour stayer in the Beresford the time before, when both he and Capri seemed to stay better than stablemate Exemplar in the muddy conditions, with the three of them miles (Well 16 lengths and more) clear of the remainder.
The fact that Rivet led all the way in the Racing Post Trophy is another factor that makes me wonder about him getting a mile and a half.
William Haggas has a relatively poor record in the Classics. It’s not just the lack of winners either but the fact that you would be hard pressed to compile much of a list of horses he has taken to the Classic Races with a genuinely solid chance of winning. Last year he supplemented the million pound Monsun filly Fadillah for the Oaks and mentioned that the owner had been purring on the telephone at the news. Less than a week later William Haggas ruled her out of the Oaks and into a handicap instead, where she scrambled home off 76. She was then beaten in a handicap off her new mark of 79.
William Haggas gets plenty of winners but the quality/prize money ratio to the cost of the horses must be rather low. It takes a lot of three grand maiden wins to pay for a horse who was quarter of a million quid to buy, for example.
Too many negatives for me to back Rivet for the Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’ve taken 180s, 160s and 150s about Barney Roy on Betfair. He’s not actually entered for the Derby yet, but the fact he debuted over a mile and looked to be staying on when winning mean I think he could be a good candidate for this rather than the Guineas.
Interesting race at Leopardstown 3.35 on Wednesday.
Early entries include Haripour ( Harzands Half Brother ) & Auckland who were second and third to Sir John Lavery in that maiden at the back end of last year.Other AOB horses to note among the entries are Belgravia and Venice Beach who are also Derby entries.
Looking forward to how Haripor and Auckland win run. A good show make Sir John Lavery’s credentials alittle more stronger. Ive backed him at 16’s
Venice Beach being backed and would enhance the form of Titus’s win last backend. However Weld’s comments in a recent stable tour on ATR weren’t overly encouraging that he’d run in the Derby and may opt for the Irish 2000 Guineas instead. Not that surprising considering he’s by Dansili that a mile is preferred, but I can see Titus staying the 1m4f considering the way he powered through the Leapordstown mile on soft ground.
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