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Backing the Ballydoyle second string didn’t work for me yesterday but will try again today and I’ve put a bit on Euphoric for this too. I don’t have an account with Unibet who are offering 80-1 so took the next best.
Euphoric 66-1 ew
Ambiente Friendly is imo still a good price @ 10/1 or even 9/1.
The form may not be quite up to City Of Troy’s 2 year old exploits, but COT has big question marks after Newmarket. Both the Godolphin duo of Arabian Crown and Ancient Wisdom may not be as effective given normal Derby ground conditions (particularly the latter). Whereas Ambiente Friendly has this season form which is imo currently better than Arabian Crown (and he’s joint favourite). AF is proven at pretty much the Derby distance and has an action that is bound to be suited by good-firm. Only questions are whether he has already over-performed his breeding – so is less likely to improve as much as the above… And whether his temperament will hold up to the prelims – given he appeared a bit excitable on reappearance. Much better behaved as Lingfield and can at least expect some improvement and – so far – this has been shaping up as a substandard Derby anyway.Value Is EverythingI just got this feeling in the back of my mind that Ambiente Friendly won’t win. Maybe he’s not ‘sexy enough’, maybe something from the Ballydoyle camp will step up on the day.
1st run of the season, last 100 yards the best over the 10f. Knowing how they have been coming on for the run, a contender i would’ve thought.
On the bare form no chance in the Derby but will surely improve from the race. Can see Los Angeles being in the shake up but not sure if he is up to winning it. Will be better over the further distance so can’t be ruled out.
The Derby picture as clear as mud. It’s who comes on from the first runs this season. The coolmore horses all seem to have. Aidan quoted as saying he wasn’t pushing the 3yr olds and letting them come into themselves which suggests another Japan type Derby where horse not quite ready but winning group ones after that. Good luck getting the winner as I’ve no idea just now.
Agree Ginger. In a normal year I doubt he would be good enough – but there has to be a possibility it is only an average Derby this year if City Of Troy does not bring his A game (and that has to be a big if).
I was expecting him to be something like 8/1, so I had to take the 12/1. I doubt an O’Brien or Gosden horse that won a trial by a few lengths would be rated at a double figure price.
Maybe he was flattered but I think he is a sporting bet.
Something about Camelot as a sire puts me off Los Angeles. How long has he been at stud now and Luxembourg is still his best progeny. Did Latrobe fluke an Irish Derby or did I imagine that? I just don’t associate him with very good progeny (at Group 1 level at least).
A lot of his progeny are good looking but a bit heavy topped and I’m not sure how sound they are. Sir Dragonet broke down on the racecourse- destroyed. Santa Barbara broke down in training- destroyed. Sir Erec broke down horrifically in the Triumph – destroyed. Gardens of Babylon “died as a 6yo” apparently (don’t know what happened) and English King, one time well fancied for the Derby, never won a race after the Lingfield trial and was shunted off to Australia after his 3yo season where he ran badly 3 times and was never seen again.
“I just don’t associate him with very good progeny (at Group 1 level at least).”
Luxembourg was favourite for the Derby but got injured. Without that occurrence his 3 year old campaign may have been more fruitful. He might have won it, and an Irish one too, then the conversation about the progeny becomes a little different.
Ancient wisdom 11/1 for me
Rain is coming and hoping he wins the Dante and goes joint fav or fav
Camelot is not a sire I particularly like, but I think Los Angeles has a very good chance of being his best horse to date. Best looking Camelot I’ve seen, with the conformation of one that will go on improving for a long time yet. Has grown over the winter (dwarfed the others in the paddock at Leopardstown). It does make him a slight worry of how he’ll cope with the undulations of Epsom. However, although his form isn’t close to City Of Troy’s 2 year old or Ambiente Friendly’s 3 year old form… it also makes him more likely to improve to a greater extent than those two… And we know how much AOB’s have improved for the run. Doesn’t have the archetypal firm ground action of Ambiente Friendly, but neither imo does he have a soft ground action either. Judged on yesterday’s performance will prove equally effective on a sound surface to the very soft he encountered in France. Both his run style and breeding suggest he’ll be a lot better at 12f+ than 10. I take FF,s comment about being slow. He is slow at 10f compared to many Group 1 horses, but should be suited by 12f, especially this early in his 3 year old campaign. Although having said that, I’d agree the Leger appeals just as much if not more. I’ve had a bit on him for Donny and might go in nearer the time for Epsom.
Value Is Everything“Luxembourg was favourite for the Derby but got injured. Without that occurrence his 3 year old campaign may have been more fruitful. He might have won it, and an Irish one too, then the conversation about the progeny becomes a little different.”
Well..you know the old saying about the circumstances in which your auntie would be your uncle. See my remarks about soundness..and Camelot himself retired unsound. Of course it may turn out that some of the earlier progeny were simply unlucky, and as the sample size increases it might become clear that they are no less prone to injury than any other thoroughbred. We’ll see.
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