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There used to be a saying in racing: “The fittest horse wins the Guineas, the luckiest horse wins the Derby but the best horse wins the St Leger”.
That is obviously not the case now, if it ever was. But I suspect the first bit is true this year.
City Of Troy was unfit in the Guineas. O’Brien admitted it. That is his responsibility.
If he was having problems getting his horses fit due to a wet and cold spring, he should have reacted and given his main hopes a trial.
Lots of his horses have clearly run much better second time out this season.
To try to fob punters off with some excuse that City Of Troy got upset in the stalls when he was the last in is ridiculous.
I’d say he did have cot only 85% and thought he could still win the guineas. He looked much sharper yesterday and the fact he was bombing on after the line suggests there is much more to come. The guineas is gone now so nowt we can do about it. Be interesting to see what he does with his guineas contenders next season. Cue them bolting up without a prep run.🤣
“If the weather meant they couldn’t get him fit enough to do himself justice that’s an act of GOD”.
No, just the weather: in all probability God does not exist.
Running in a trial has its own risks, Nathan. Could set the horse back especially if run on too soft a surface. Risks taking longer to get over the run and missing the main event. Some horses need a run and some don’t. There is no evidence Rosallion needed a run anyway and had they run him at Newbury it could have set him back. If he’d run and not recovered in time for the 2000 I suspect you’d have asked why did he run in a trial?
Yes, had AOB given COT a prep run he may have run better in the Guineas, but he was so far below form there, it would’ve been asking a lot for it to make the difference between winning and losing… And even if he’d run to his two year old form – it would’ve been tight but – imo would not have beaten Notable Speech.
“At his best he’d have destroyed Notable Speech”.
By blaming himself he has conned you and thousands of others (including breeders) that COT would’ve definitely won the Guineas – and done so easily – had he (the trainer) not effed it up.
Job done as far as Coolmore / O’Brien is concerned.
Value Is EverythingCreatures of habit Ginge. Hannon likes to give his guineas horses a prep and O’Brien doesn’t
Rosallion won the Irish guineas, did the guineas set him back? no
Hannon did the right thing as the going was against Rosallion at Newbury
Are you more likely to have a setback in a prep first time out or in a group 1 first time out. I’d suggest the latter because they are normally run hard“suspect you’d have asked why did he run in a trial?”
You suspect wrong
So where do you think COT would have finished in the guineas at his best?
maybe destroyed was too strong a word but I fully expected him to win as did the bookies who had him odds on
what was your 100% book, did you have COT as fav? If you did you expected him to have the best chance to winGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
“By blaming himself he has conned you and thousands of others (including breeders) that COT would’ve definitely won the Guineas – and done so easily – had he (the trainer) not effed it up.
Job done as far as Coolmore / O’Brien is concerned.”Yeh, he’s conned me out of hundreds of thousands future pounds I’m going to be spending buying one of his offspring..
I also said
“yes we all know that Aidan will say what’s best for breeding reasons but still has to shoulder his fair share of the blame if you take the breeding/stallion stuff out of the equation”
Aidan sure pulled my pants down
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
“the luckiest horse wins the Derby”
I think City of Troy was ‘lucky’ because the race was severely depleted by the two big trial winners … Economics not turning up and Hidden Law losing his life. Voyage dumping his rider too
…I am not convinced Economics would have won. I think Haggas’s decision to swerve the race was vindicated.
Maybe O’Brien left City Of Troy undercooked for the Guineas to take the Triple Crown and the St Leger out of the equation.
“So where do you think COT would have finished in the guineas at his best?
maybe destroyed was too strong a word but I fully expected him to win as did the bookies who had him odds on
what was your 100% book, did you have COT as fav? If you did you expected him to have the best chance to win”.
————————–imo City Of Troy would have finished second in the 2000 Guineas had he run to his two year old / 7f form, Nathan… And probably even if he ran to his Derby form too.
It does not matter that I had Notable Speech as second favourite to City Of Troy in my 100% book before the race. Point is imo the form shown by Notable Speech IN THE 2000 GUINEAS means City Of Troy would’ve had to improve to win the 2000 Guineas… And AOB’s “it was my fault” is conning people into believing COT would have definitely won.
Value Is EverythingImo City Of Troy beats Notable Speech in the 2000 Guineas had he run to his two year old form. Because of the proximity of Haatem to Notable Speech.
So you are calling Aidan a con man because he has the horse about 4 lengths better than you think he’d finish judging off his two year old form
What’s 4 lengths a second or twoGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
“And AOB’s “it was my fault” is conning people into believing COT would have definitely won”.
This is certainly true. I wouldn’t go so far as to call Aidan a “con man” but he does talk a lot of rubbish. Maybe COT is the best Derby winner he’s trained. If it was the first time he’d made the claim, we’d believe him but we hear it every year. We don’t know if COT would have won the 2000 Guineas and I doubt he’ll ever run over a mile again so we’ll never even know how good he is at the distance as a 3yo. Nor do we know why he ran so badly at Newmarket, anymore than we know why Auguste Rodin did exactly the same last year.
We’ll also never know where Voyage would have finished but, watching the replay again today, I am even more impressed with his professionalism. Many top jockeys often struggle getting to the rail from an outside draw but he managed it effortlessly! Not sure I subscribe to stilvi’s theory about riderless horses, regardless of the apparent evidence (handicap system is all about influencing results by addition of mere pounds after all) but I love Voyage’s attitude. Perhaps he’ll be another Hethersett!
I can certainly see Voyage winning the first all-age riderless Epsom Derby next year. How much extra will he need to carry, do you reckon?
Terrific post Tonge. It sums up exactly how I feel about the events of yesterday. I like to think that Voyage has a bright future and will relish the next time he runs
Excellent post, Tonge. I also thought Voyage knew his job very well. Let’s see where he goes next.
And AOB has trained over 20-30 best ever horses.Don’t be silly, Nathan.
You can con people into thinking something without being a “con man”.
The point is that by blaming himself he has made people (including potential clients / breeders) think City Of Troy would’ve definitely won the 2000 Guineas had he run to form.
With Notable Speech’s rating for winning the 2000 Guineas it is clear he’d have struggled to beat the Appleby horse..Value Is Everything
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