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Barzalona was confident, only went for the whip very late. I was impressed with the acceleration of Cloth of Stars, he did have the benefit of a previous run and I’m not sure if the others had off the top of my head. Do we know if the Prix Ganay is definitely on the agenda, of those quoted in the odds I think he’d have a very good chance of winning.
*edit – Just checked and Cloth of Stars was the only one of the markets leaders with a previous run this season.
apologies, this is going off topic. Could get moved to Steve’s French thread in horse racing if Admin wish to do so.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
This was so disappointing from MD, her dream really seems to be already over.
Your anticipation that she wouldn’t train on was probably right, Steve, I already had a bad feeling myself and kept my fingers still.
I just don’t understand why you ignored your own warning and nonetheless backed her??
My feeling is that this race is so open that I wouldn’t touch any of the ante post odds.
I know that many of you stick to “value-concept”, but what’s the use if the horse won’t win?
If the Blue Horse
really proves to be so strong, I will bet him on the day for shorter odds..
Just one question to you, Jürgen
, eh Nathan:
What do you see in Harry Angel, why are you so convinced of him?This was so disappointing from MD, her dream really seems to be already over.
Your anticipation that she wouldn’t train on was probably right, Steve, I already had a bad feeling myself and kept my fingers still.
I just don’t understand why you ignored your own warning and nonetheless backed her??
My feeling is that this race is so open that I wouldn’t touch any of the ante post odds.
I know that many of you stick to “value-concept”, but what’s the use if the horse won’t win?
If the Blue Horse
really proves to be so strong, I will bet him on the day for shorter odds..
Just one question to you, Jürgen , eh Nathan:
What do you see in Harry Angel, why are you so convinced of him?My thinking was that this may just have been the only race this season that she might run to form in before improvers from last year had the chance to catch up over the coming months. If she had run to her form of last season I am sure she would have finished at least second today. Winner apart, I don’t think this was a good field. 15/8 would have looked big in retrospect and I only had a small double with Cloth Of Stars, so there wasn’t much to lose in a speculative bet.
Today’s winner Fas was awarded 113 for the win by the Racing Post, so Mrs Danvers would have had to have run the race of her life anyway. Her top rating from last year was 106, while Fas has run 10 lbs above his previous best of 103 on RPRs.
We see it year after year that the fast 2yo fillies do not progress. Tiggy Wiggy was a recent example. The Hannon filly gradually lost her way at 3yo and her last two Racing Post figures in her career were sadly 42 and 71, a million miles from her peak of 117.
I feel it may be a mistake to believe Mrs Danvers can bounce back from this but each to their own.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Haha Hein, Jürgen, love it, did you see Firmino’s goal yesterday..? BOOM…!!
I wouldn’t say I’m convinced as such, it’s a tough game, I don’t bet a lot in monetary terms but like to stick to my own views. Many more on this forum worth taking much more note of and they get things right more than myself but it’s nice when I get one right now and again.
I like lightly raced horses going from 2-3 years, he possibly could have run more but for a niggle.
Not always the case but when they run too much at 2 years sometimes it can be because they have matured fast and don’t improve/progress at 3 years old. The way connections were ultra confident going into the Mill Reef they said to write off the maiden defeat as the horse had tweaked a muscle that day which ruled him out of the Coventry. The smile on the jockeys face Adam Kirby afterward Newbury suggests they think a lot of Harry Angel.
The opposition in the Mill Reef was not of the highest quality but Harry Angel looked visually special to me, Kirby was easy on him aswell, plenty to come this year, hopefully.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Okay Steve, then I’m in the picture about your thinking; I’m afraid we really can forget about her now, as I see today’s competitors quite weak. Are you still redhot on Blue Point?
Maybe the loss against the Last Lion was only a kind of an accident ;-), and he has trained on well. By the way, does train on mean to develop further (you know, I’m not a native speaker..)?
You indicated that Blue Point’s odds will shrink soon, do you stick to this?
Will his jockey in the big race also be W.Buick? Last year many of you stated concerns against this guy, but at least he gave Jack Hobbs a perfect ride, didn’t he? Maybe he has trained on too ;-)?
Glad you liked it, Nathan, of course it was only a joke, as I noticed that you kicked JK out of your avatar. Was that for his performance or his antics?
Back to horses: What would your opinion be on Blue Point?
To be honest Harry Angel doesn’t seem too convincing to me, and I don’t know if Adam Kirby’s grinning is so relevant. At least this crazy guy from racebets, I think his name is Matt, called him a hooligan..Cox and Kirby had a good bit of success last year, they could be slightly underrated. I’ve seen far worse hooligan’s than Kirby. lol
Klopp is fine, just wanted a change, The one I have now is of Thistlecrack, taken by myself. Now the flat season is here I may revert to one of myself with Richard Hannon.
Blue Point is good, is bred to get further which would be an advantage at Royal Ascot over 6f as even although it’s a sprint, they can go very fast from the outset so stamina can still play a part. He’s likeable enough for reasons Steve has already put up but my personal preference would be for Harry Angel.Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Yes Nathan, Kirby is probably a decent jockey, maybe he will step up the ladder further this season?!
Then I’m well informed about your your avatar and am looking forward to your new one.
Thank you for your clear statement, this was very helpful for me as well as Steve’s analysis of Blue Point and I reckon the first races of these sprinters will be very informative and fun to watch.
Maybe I risk an ante post bet after these.
By the way, Mr.Cox has had a double at Windsor today so far..Okay Steve, then I’m in the picture about your thinking; I’m afraid we really can forget about her now, as I see today’s competitors quite weak. Are you still redhot on Blue Point?
Maybe the loss against the Last Lion was only a kind of an accident ;-), and he has trained on well. By the way, does train on mean to develop further (you know, I’m not a native speaker..)?
You indicated that Blue Point’s odds will shrink soon, do you stick to this?
Will his jockey in the big race also be W.Buick? Last year many of you stated concerns against this guy, but at least he gave Jack Hobbs a perfect ride, didn’t he? Maybe he has trained on too ;-)?
Glad you liked it, Nathan, of course it was only a joke, as I noticed that you kicked JK out of your avatar. Was that for his performance or his antics?
Back to horses: What would your opinion be on Blue Point?
To be honest Harry Angel doesn’t seem too convincing to me, and I don’t know if Adam Kirby’s grinning is so relevant. At least this crazy guy from racebets, I think his name is Matt, called him a hooligan..I still fancy Blue Point strongly.
I don’t think he will move much in the market until he runs or Caravaggio makes a less than stellar effort somewhere.
Blue Point has a clear path laid out and we won’t see him until the end of May. In contrast, Caravaggio has already had a change of plan, missing his intended starting point and apparently going to the French 2000 Guineas. In a way, it is hard to see a positive for the Commonwealth Cup coming from that target. This is because, should he win it, he is likely to stay at a mile, while defeat will break his unbeaten cachet. Both scenarios could damage confidence in him at 6F.
I find it astonishing that Fas is not in the Commonwealth Cup betting. He won the race lifted by the horse who went on to win at Royal Ascot last season and I said yesterday that he should head to the Commonwealth Cup. This morning the trainer confirmed that the horse is being aimed at the Commonwealth Cup, yet there is no sign of him in the betting, yet the beaten out of sight Mrs Danvers sits at 10/1 in places.
These so called bookies disgust me. They don’t have a clue really and they have the retired Mehmas in the race. They are continually quoting dead horses and retired horses’ along with horses who are not qualified to run in the race. Stan James had Landfall in the Derby betting for many months despite the horse being a Gelding who cannot be entered for the race. What can you do, I can’t get a bet on a horse I fancy because they are quoting no hopers while a horse with a real chance is not in the betting.
For me “Training on” is a horse who can at least match it’s level from the previous season. You get big improvers, slight improvers and static horses going from two to three, along with those who decline slightly and others who just seem to be well below what they did last year. Sometimes you can see the signs of it late in their 2yo career, regarding potentially failing to go on when they start the following season.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Thank you very much Steve, your analysis was very informative and helpful to me!
My feeling about Blue Point is growing, and I’m glad to read that I have still some time to decide about backing him.
As I mentioned earlier, I’m not such a chaser for the best odds, when the safety of his win increases and I get him for 5/1 or so, I would be content too..Today’s impressive Ponte winner Brian The Snail added to Coral’s book at 10/1.
BetVictor introduce him at a rickety 20/1, which will obviously disappear in the next few minutes.
Today’s impressive Ponte winner Brian The Snail added to Coral’s book at 10/1.
BetVictor introduce him at a rickety 20/1, which will obviously disappear in the next few minutes.
10/1? I doubt your phone lines will be busy.
Nice win for Brian The Snail but he’ll have to find plenty from a Handicap at Pontefract to a Group 1 at Royal Ascot. 10/1 looks skinny to me but each to their own.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Bookmakers have finally tippled that Fas is a player and I popped into Ladbrokes today for a saver on the French Sprinter at 20/1.
Trainer Pia Brandt has said the colt goes straight to the Commonwealth Cup and anticipates no problems in having him fit and ready to go on the day. Apparently she had considered upping him to 7F for a pop at the Djebel but decided against it as he is so fast.
Thoroughbred Daily News gave the following report today:-
“He was in a different league to his contemporaries this time allowed to bowl along in front from the outset by Maxime Guyon. Leaving behind the hot favourite and previously-unbeaten filly Mrs Danvers (GB) (Hellvelyn {GB}) as he surged clear from over a furlong out, he hit the line strong to register a resounding success.
Royal Ascot now looms large on his horizon. “He is so fast,” commented trainer Pia Brandt, who had dismissed plans to step him up in trip for Monday’s G3 Prix Djebel. “He was a little bit more manageable than last time and quickened brilliantly to win in very good style. He is very easy to train and does little in the mornings, keeping his best for the afternoons so it is not a problem keeping him fresh for the G1 Commonwealth Cup [at Royal Ascot June 23]. He will not run in between.”
I think 20/1 is a bit of value. I am not going each-way, as 1/5 odds 1-2-3 makes no appeal as value.
Fas 20/1 (Saver bet) maybe each-way on the day if correct odds and better terms.
Blue Point already advised.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Timeform’s sectionals crew are fapping away about what a decidedly tubby Brian The Snail was able to do off 95 so I wouldn’t say 10/1 is too short. It’s the right price. Just ask the BetVictor guesser who installed him at 20/1 (a price which lasted all of 8 minutes!).
Richard Fahey also confirmed the horse is expected to win the Pavillion Stakes of May 3 en route to the Commonwealth Cup so the likelihood of participation has to be factored into the price.
Timeform’s sectionals crew are fapping away about what a decidedly tubby Brian The Snail was able to do off 95 so I wouldn’t say 10/1 is too short. It’s the right price. Just ask the BetVictor guesser who installed him at 20/1 (a price which lasted all of 8 minutes!).
Richard Fahey also confirmed the horse is expected to win the Pavillion Stakes of May 3 en route to the Commonwealth Cup so the likelihood of participation has to be factored into the price.
10/1 can’t be the right price when 16/1 is available with other firms.
I remember Time Test getting tons of love from Timeform and he never lived up to their inflated rating.
I admit I don’t follow the sectionals. Partly because there is no consistency in the availability.
I prefer to go by the form and that was a modest bunch of horses Brian The Snail gave weight to yesterday. It’s miles from Ponty to Royal Ascot.
Two 25/1 shots followed Brian home yesterday. The second favourite Battered wasn’t much cop and is no world beater anyway. Time will tell. Brian The Snail is a promising sort for sure but at only one point bigger than Blue Point, who hosed up in the Gimcrack and was then 2nd and 3rd in two group 1s, one of which was behind the hot Guineas favourite over 7f, there seems no logic to me in the odds.
A good sort Brian The Snail but I prefer the proven form. As always you have to imagine what Blue Point or Caravaggio would have done against that field off the same weight at Pontefract yesterday.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
IMO if Brian The Snail wins or places in the Pavillion Stakes (he will) and then runs in Commonwealth Cup (trainer confirms he will, barring injury), he’ll go off single figures. Others have stronger chances and he’s not my main bet but I predict he’ll start somewhere around 8/1 on the day. Add a couple of points for ante-post all-in terms and 10/1 or 12/1 feels right. Not a value bet, not stingy – just right.
RE: Time Test – I think Timeform were partly right with their initial opinion but in hindsight they missed a few key family trends. Passage Of Time, Timepiece and a few other siblings all looked on the cusp of stardom before either flatlining or regressing. Poor show from supposedly genius experts to miss something like that, but they are good value for their service on the whole. FWIW one of Timeform’s main faces (I’m sure a few of you know who I’m talking about) often advises his Twitter followers to back blatant palps so perhaps there is a rather unsavoury element creeping into the Sleepy Hollow set.
IMO if Brian The Snail wins or places in the Pavillion Stakes (he will) and then runs in Commonwealth Cup (trainer confirms he will, barring injury), he’ll go off single figures. Others have stronger chances and he’s not my main bet but I predict he’ll start somewhere around 8/1 on the day. Add a couple of points for ante-post all-in terms and 10/1 or 12/1 feels right. Not a value bet, not stingy – just right.
RE: Time Test – I think Timeform were partly right with their initial opinion but in hindsight they missed a few key family trends. Passage Of Time, Timepiece and a few other siblings all looked on the cusp of stardom before either flatlining or regressing. Poor show from supposedly genius experts to miss something like that, but they are good value for their service on the whole. FWIW one of Timeform’s main faces (I’m sure a few of you know who I’m talking about) often advises his Twitter followers to back blatant palps so perhaps there is a rather unsavoury element creeping into the Sleepy Hollow set.
Yes, Brian The Snail could easily be in the Don’t Touch class for Fahey. He started his career similarly unbeaten and at a similar level. Ultimately Don’t Touch won the Ayr Gold Cup and if I recall rightly I had him at 14/1 for that race. The extra worry for me is that Brian The Snail is going for a much tougher race and it’s going to happen three months earlier in the season. Other contenders may still hold the edge in June, while Brian catches them up later.
I don’t use Timeform. I simply can’t afford it and half the fun is using my own opinions. I have a couple of the annuals and they were excellent back in the late 80’s early 90’s. With the internet and information available there nowadays, I would no longer be able to justify buying the Timeform annuals now.
I have always been wary of using time figures for racing, you just can’t apply it with the certainty you could for athletics say. Most of the betting I do is going to be based on potential improvement, so the speed figures matter less in the field I operate in anyway. Some people seem to feel I am criticising Timeform but in reality I am only occasionally questioning some of their thinking. The Timeform Rating and the Offical Handicapper’s rating for Time Test were poles apart. I could never accept he was as good as the Timeform rating.
Timeform obviously have loyal customers and as long as their customers are happy with the service then that is all that matters.
I still feel the French horse Fas is wildly underestimated here. He is an impressive Group 3 winner on the up, he’s a dedicated sprinter who has clearly trained on and is open to improvement. However, the horses miles ahead in the betting from him are a hotch potch of colts and fillies with very uncertain career paths for now and a horse he demolished last time sits at half his odds in places. 20/1 seriously underestimates his potential.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
really proves to be so strong, I will bet him on the day for shorter odds..
, eh Nathan:
really proves to be so strong, I will bet him on the day for shorter odds..
, eh Nathan:
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