Commonwealth Cup 2017

Home Forums Archive Topics Royal Ascot 2017 Commonwealth Cup 2017

This topic contains 169 replies, has 26 voices, and was last updated by Ghost of Rob V Ghost of Rob V 2 years ago.

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  • #1294326
    hein bollow
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    Could anybody give a word on Mrs Danvers?
    I know she’s a low budget horse, but she couldn’t do more than winning all here races so far.
    She even won the Cornwallis Stakes in a faster time than Quiet Reflection one year before as I read..
    I would be grateful for your opininions.

    #1294328
    Nathan Hughes
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    This was posted today from the trainers website

    Our star of 2016, the 5 times unbeaten 2yo Mrs Danvers, is primed to front that challenge. Can we dream that she can win a Group 1? We will wait and see but in the meantime experiment at 6f at Group 3 level. She has wintered very well anyway and her spring work is so far just as impressive as last year.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1294330
    Middle_Of_March
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    I actually backed Caravaggio antepost for Ascot last year. Was my NAP of the meeting as i knew his time in Ireland on heavy going was superb despite him being a horse suited to the faster surface.

    I also backed him for the Guineas at 12s before Churchill emerged.

    If he fails in the Guineas (if he runs), he could run in this. His speed is so good that only lady eurelia would do him for sheer speed. But I’m pretty sure she’s suited to the minimum trip.

    Blue point is a strange one. Not quite sure what to make of him yet.

    #1294337
    hein bollow
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    Thank you, Nathan for your response!
    It’s a pity that the others here seem to ignore her,
    but as I said earlier, this might be a mistake..

    About Blue Point I kind of agree with March,
    I find this horse far from being a convincing sprinter.

    #1294339
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    Could anybody give a word on Mrs Danvers?
    I know she’s a low budget horse, but she couldn’t do more than winning all here races so far.
    She even won the Cornwallis Stakes in a faster time than Quiet Reflection one year before as I read..
    I would be grateful for your opininions.

    Mrs Danvers was good to me last season. It was one of the highlights of the season for me, on another forum, when I tipped her at 8/1 on 16th July for the Super Sprint at Newbury and doubled her with Michael Bell’s Franklin D at 6/1 over at Newmarket in the handicap.

    Mrs Danvers was backed into 9/2 before winning cosily and Franklin D dismantled his field by 6 lengths, heavily backed from 6/1 into 7/2. I was briefly a hero on that site but people there seem to think you can do that every week and it’s just not possible. Every tipster that ever was, has had dry spells akin to writers block for authors.

    Obviously with 2yo 5f horses the question is whether they were precocious as youngsters or can train on at 3yo. Generally I tend to take the pessimistic view with 2yo sprinters for the following season, probably more so with fillies entered in races against colts.

    Looking at Mrs Danvers and Lady Aurelia we see two filles with a huge spread of opinion on their chances in the Commonwealth Cup. Mrs Danvers varies from 10/1 right up to 20/1, while Lady Aurelia sits between 6/1 and 14/1. Obviously firms disagree about their likelihood of training on.

    Lady Aurelia was a horse I watched making her debut over 4 and a half furlongs last year. She pinged from the stalls and scooted away like a rat up a drain pipe, her ultra low action skimming across the ground like Usain Bolt. I had to wait a long time but when I got odds for her in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot I invested with confidence. I figured her early toe would be hard to match and, despite the rain, she was heavily backed before winning that race in a canter.

    Lady Aurelia seemed to be on oxygen fumes when holding on to win the 6F Prix Morny and I wanted to take her on next time in the Cheveley Park at Newmarket over the same trip. My thinking was that at odds of 4/6 at Newmarket, she might be vulnerable to a finisher in the closing stages. In the end I backed Aidan O’Brien’s Roly Poly at 6/1, only to see her runner up to unfancied stablemate Brave Anna, who got up by a short head at 25/1.

    It is results like that which hurt in Horse Racing. You do the work, take on the bad favourite successfully and then get shafted by the inconsistent stable companion. Brave Anna had won at Royal Ascot by a short head, before running like a horse with three legs the next twice. I had backed Cuff at good odds for that Albany Stakes but she suffered a fracture in that race, which ended her career.

    The chances are that Lady Aurelia is a precocious filly and Lady Danvers may be the same to a lesser extent. I hope I am wrong because she was such a good earner for me last year. In terms of the Commonwealth Cup though, she has not won at the trip yet and she will have to face good colts who have. I would suggest it is better to wait and see where she runs. From there it might give the heads up as to whether she has trained on. That will be a vital factor to overcome before we than ask if she can get the extra furlong and beat colts at Royal Ascot. The chances are that her odds may not deteriorate too much for making a winning comeback with O’Brien’s Caravaggio still likely to be the focus, particularly if he makes a successful re-appearance.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1294340
    Nathan Hughes
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    I wouldn’t worry too much if people ignore her Hein, it means you’ll probably get a good price for your Deutsche Mark.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1294344
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    I wouldn’t worry too much if people ignore her Hein, it means you’ll probably get a good price for your Deutsche Mark.

    Nathan, it’s all Euros now, well apart from us backward Brits. Oh, hold on, were off it seems. Brexit stage left. Oh well, maybe we have a future as a nation, with Scotland independent and still in Europe and adopting the Euro, while England hastily try to reunite the union by begging Scotland back in and working a future based on the Scottish Pound, which was, ironically, routinely refused as legal currency in the past.

    Uncertain times for sure. Keep Calm And Back Blue Point is the advice.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1294348
    Gingertipster
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    Could anybody give a word on Mrs Danvers?
    I know she’s a low budget horse, but she couldn’t do more than winning all here races so far.
    She even won the Cornwallis Stakes in a faster time than Quiet Reflection one year before as I read..
    I would be grateful for your opininions.

    Mrs Danvers is a genuine, lovely filly and – like Steve – she did me a favour too. I’d backed Mrs Danvers on the morning before the Super Sprint at Newbury last year Hein, then when I got to the paddock she was absolutely minute, even by taking in to account of a filly taking on colts she was dwarfed by most of the field. I was a little worried but she had the best form anyway. Remember in a trainers interview, Johnathon Portman thought there was a good chance she’d be best as a two year old.

    Small horses usually reach their peak a lot sooner than bigger individuals and (because of it) often kept on the go as two year olds. Also, to “train on” – ie stand still in their ability/form – a horse needs to make average physical progression from two to three. So not only do small horses peak earlier, but (being small) a lot also do not train on/make average physical progression, let alone actually improve their form as Mrs Danvers needs to to win the Group 1 Commanwealth Cup.

    I wouldn’t be backing Mrs Danvers now, even if 20/1 might look very reasonable as her form stands right now.

    value is everything
    #1294356
    hein bollow
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    Thank you all for the great input, then I better take it back that you ignored her, I was just too impatient.
    Oh no Nathan, the German Mark days are over since 2001, only some Germans dream about a comeback, but this won’t happen as long as Angie is on top.
    I didn’t know that many of you already had joy and success with Mrs Danvers, as I don’t follow this forum long enough, and I am pleased to read this!
    Thank you Ginger, this was new for me with smaller 2 yo horses having a peak at two, this might really be a concern.
    All of you are probably right that this race is a giant step up in class for her, and your bottom line, Steve to wait and see her first races this year will likely be right, I also want to see her act at 6f before I get active.

    I am really astonished why you are so deeply convinced of Blue Point, Steve. My thinking is if he would be such a classy sprinter, he should have never gotten his butt kicked by the Last Lion, but maybe this is unfair to him, because everyone is granted a bad day and even racehorses are only human..

    #1294358
    Nathan Hughes
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    Oh no Nathan, the German Mark days are over since 2001, only some Germans dream about a comeback, but this won’t happen as long as Angie is on top.

    My visit to Dortmund was in 2001 Hein, probably the reason for the change with all that counterfeit Marks I bought the beer with, happy days.
    Liverpool v Alavés, can you name the two Germans in Liverpool’s line up that night.?
    One of them scored the opening goal and the other has critised Klopp lately.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1294362
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    Thank you all for the great input, then I better take it back that you ignored her, I was just too impatient.
    Oh no Nathan, the German Mark days are over since 2001, only some Germans dream about a comeback, but this won’t happen as long as Angie is on top.
    I didn’t know that many of you already had joy and success with Mrs Danvers, as I don’t follow this forum long enough, and I am pleased to read this!
    Thank you Ginger, this was new for me with smaller 2 yo horses having a peak at two, this might really be a concern.
    All of you are probably right that this race is a giant step up in class for her, and your bottom line, Steve to wait and see her first races this year will likely be right, I also want to see her act at 6f before I get active.

    I am really astonished why you are so deeply convinced of Blue Point, Steve. My thinking is if he would be such a classy sprinter, he should have never gotten his butt kicked by the Last Lion, but maybe this is unfair to him, because everyone is granted a bad day and even racehorses are only human..

    I was gutted by that result. I had backed Blue Point at decent odds ante-post, in the belief that Caravaggio would not run. It turned out that I was correct on that score but did not allow for The Last Lion upsetting the plot.

    The Last Lion had been thrashed by Blue Point in the Gimcrack at York and the rumblings from the Johnston yard were that his horse was an early sort who might not train on. I believe The Last Lion was retired to stud after that race, a wise move in my opinion to go out on a personal best high.

    Godolphin had said that Blue Point would be trained as a Sprinter at 3yo, so I was surprised to see the horse aimed at the Dewhurst over 7F. It seemed clear on the day that they got their answer, as he didn’t seem to get home behind Churchill.

    He remains a promising sort. He is a lovely stamp of a colt, who has never run a bad race. By Shamardal, he is by no means a typical 2yo speedster who will not train on. He was never tried at 5F as a 2yo, and he ticks a lot of boxes for me as a well made colt who could specialise at 6F.

    Maybe I will be well off the mark but, all things considered, I think he is excellent value for the Commonwealth Cup at 9/1, for an outfit who had one of their best seasons for a while last year.

    Racing is a tough game but I always feel that backing one at 9/1 and seeing it win, gives you more chances to be wrong in the future, than backing a hot favourite and getting behind the 8 ball with one loser afterwards.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1294368
    hein bollow
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    Yes, this was a brilliant final, and probably a great experience for you, Nathan.
    The latter should be Didi Hamann, the other one I can’t bring to mind admittedly.

    Thank you for your argumentation for Blue Point, Steve, at least it reads quite plausible to me.
    I will definetely follow his first races and re-evaluate him then.
    8ball? I also enjoy playing pool..

    #1294379
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    Yes, this was a brilliant final, and probably a great experience for you, Nathan.
    The latter should be Didi Hamann, the other one I can’t bring to mind admittedly.

    Thank you for your argumentation for Blue Point, Steve, at least it reads quite plausible to me.
    I will definetely follow his first races and re-evaluate him then.
    8ball? I also enjoy playing pool..

    I used to be a reasonable pool and snooker player back in the day. Sadly, they did away with the numbered balls and it became seven reds, seven yellows and a black ball with no number on it in the mid 1980’s. It just wasn’t the same somehow.

    Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.

    #1294415
    Nathan Hughes
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    Marcus Babbel was the scorer of the 1st goal Hein. Such a shame he was struck down by the rare Guillain-Barre syndrome. Within about a space of 3 months He went from being one of the strongest players I’d seen to being a living skeleton that you could of knocked down with a feather.
    Hamann was right.

    Don't Eat The Pie and Don't Buy The S*n
    #1294446
    hein bollow
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    Thanks for helping me out Nathan, I’m not so firm with those Bavarians:-).
    Yes, now I remember fotos of Babbel when he was dramatically ill, that was very sad,
    but afterwards he regained his health and tried his luck as a trainer.

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