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1:55 Leopardstown
1 pt win Saludos 14/1 gen. (16/1 Betfred)
I don’t have as much between this whole field as the market and think the front 2 are too short. Jessie’s horses are flying and this fella may have been underestimated after a good win last time. A slight worry is the surfeit of front runners but hopefully he doesn’t have to make it. I’m not a big Some Present fan and Fionnegas might need further on this ground.
2nd 12/1 -1 pt.
2.30 Leop
1 pt each way Mythical Prince 7/1 Paddy Power
I thought he ran a belter first time a 3 miles when touched off by the well-handicapped Operation Houdini, possibly hitting the front too soon. Couldn’t put you off putting him in to lay short in-running as he travels so well. I’m against Moskova on this ground.
unpl 6/1 -2 pts.
2.40 Kempton
1/2 pt win Briareus 14/1 gen.
Goes OK fresh, loves scooting around this track, overpriced.
PU 16/1 -0.5 pts.
1.35 Limerick
1 pt win Richly Presented
Stable flying
PU 11/1 -1 pt.2.45 Punchestown
1 pt win Tropical Island 9/2 Hills
Ran well under similar conditions at Cork, stable going well and faces a few chronic non-winners towards the head of the betting.
unpl 9/2 -1 pt.
2.35 Tramore
1 pt win The Man From Slatt 7/2 gen.
Off a long time but big chance here if within a stone of the ability he showed as a hunter a couple of seasons ago, good track for a front-runner.
PU 4/1 -1 pt.
December
Staked 33
Loss 25.2Leopardstown Hurdle
1 pt win Moville 14/1 Hills, 12/1 others.
I love this race. I landed one of my biggest touches in it with Barker a couple of years ago (tipped up on here at 20-1) and have fond memories of the likes of Xenophon before that. You need a lightly-raced young hurdler here and Moville fits the bill. He showed a really good attitude when battling back to win at Navan a month ago and his rating didn’t suffer. Martin Brassil won’t have been held up having access to the Curragh all-weather. The only doubt is his participation but I can’t resist having a small bet today before decs, I will add more once he’s confirmed a runner. The other doubt is will it be on? Only the man above knows that!
Void- race postponed and reopened.Thyestes Chase ante post
2 pts win Beroni 5/1 gen.
The ease of his win in the Troytown (put up here at 12/1) had to be seen to be believed and even a 20lbs hike may not be enough. Showed his well-being with a win over hurdles recently. Looks a grade above these and can defy a slightly higher rating and weight than normally wins this.
unpl 7/2 -2 pts.RSA Chase Ante Post
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Weapons Amnesty 16/1 Hills
This looks a good market to get involved in as there are a lot of short-priced horses who have either yet to go over fences or to be confirmed to run here (Long Run, Diamond Harry, Mikeal d’Hagunet). Long Run surely should run in this but owners have the last say. I still think he will and will be having at least a saver on Betfair in case he turns up. Weapons Amnesty won the three mile novice at the Festival last year and is totally game and genuine as well as adaptable to ground conditions. My impression is that he might have a little bit more pace than Pandorama on goodish ground. he is also held up, which might be an advantage in a race likely to be strongly run. His jumping is not faultless but is improving with each run.
Arkle Chase ante post
Lay Captain Cee Bee 6/1 Betfair (if already backed at 12/1) to lose 1 pt.
Just as I thought the post-race 12/1 was too big, his current price is surely too short in what looks the hottest novice race of the Festival. I’d like to save my stake and have it on one of the many dangers closer to the race.Triumph Hurdle ante post
1 pt win, 1/2 pt place Secant Star 25/1 Coral
I was very impressed with this ex-French horse on his first start for Willie Mullins at Leopardstown when he had the race in the bag until distracted by a shadow at the final flight and overjumping. He had jumped really well to that point. Of course he needs to improve on the bare form but could well do so and the 25/1 is disappearing.1.00 Fairyhouse
1 pt win Grange Alainn 7/2 Paddy Power
I harbour some doubts as to the value of the form of The Hurl’s wins and to whether he’ll get home at 3 miles in this ground especially as he’s inclined to miss a few hurdles. The top one stays really well and can capitalise if the fav disappoints.
2nd 9/4 -1 pt.
2.00 Fairyhouse
1 pt each way An Cathaoir Mor 4/1 Vic, Bet 365.
I wasn’t as impressed as some with Cousin Vinny’s chase debut and the form of this horse’s run last time couldn’t be working out better given the subsequent runs of Zaarito and Captain Cee Bee. He’s nailed on to be placed with a clear round.
won 3/1 +4.8 pts.2.05 Naas
1 pt win Telenor 3/1 Ladbrokes
Pundits and the trainer are blaming the bad mistake that Alpha Ridge made at Leopardstown for his poor showing but his goose was cooked a fence before that when he jumped slowly and lost his position suddenly in the manner of a horse that had gone wrong. As such there must be a doubt if he can rock up here 3 weeks later and give his best. In any case I was very taken with Telenor’s win the last day when he jumped well and looked like another stayer in the Notre Pere mould for the Dreaper/Conway axis.I’m hoping he might get his own way in front and make it a true test.
3rd 9/4 -1 pt.1.05 Naas
Lay 1 pt Cadspeed libility 0.8 pts.
Has looked a bit iffy to me in close finishes and worth taking on even in a weak race.
2nd 5/6 +1 pt.Leopardstown Hurdle ante post
1/2 pt win, 1/4 pt place C’est Ca 20-1 Corals
This race has a different shape to it since it was reopened and Willie Mullins stuck in Ebaziyan who will keep the weights down for his other runners. Traditionally you need a light weight here and I have a few in mind but it’s worth tucking away a bit of 20-1 about C’est Ca as he has attracted some support today. He wasn’t given a hard time behind his stablemate at Fairyhouse on his first run for a long time and has some bits of form as a 4yo which make him potentially well handicapped.
3rd 10/1 +0.75 pts.Leopardstown Hurdle
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Gallant Light 33/1 gen.
Jessie Harrington’s charge fits the age and weight profile of winners of this and looks a big price to me- his form behind Luska lad isn’t too shabby.
Unpl 14/1 -1.5 pts
1 pt win Steviemac 11/1 Hills,Coral (12/1 bet 365)
To me the most solid of those at the front of the market, the manner of his wins mean he’s still reasonably handicapped.
unpl 10/1 -1 pt.Champion Hurdle ante post
1.5 pts win, 0.5 pts place Solwhit 6/1 Ladbrokes.
Outside this thread I’ve already backed Solwhit for the CH at a mouthwatering 25/1 with Cashmans after the Aintree Hurdle last year. I love his attitude and he showed great tenacity again today between the last 2 flights to shrug off Sublimity. I don’t know why he is still underrated but Ladbrokes post-race 6/1 is too big for a horse almost guaranteed to run his race. As long as there is a bit of give and plenty of pace on he’s sure to be there at the last when a lot of the talking horses like Binocular and Zaynar have cried enough. Myself and my buddies have already booked the Daffodil on the Tuesday night for the Solwhit party!Skybet Chase Doncaster Sat
1 pt win 1/2 pt place Khachaturian 16/1 Hills
You need a lightly-raced low weightd horse here and Donald McCain’s has just crept in with 10-3. You also need a strong stayer and he is, looking last time at Newbury as if he needed the step back up to this trip. Has a good attitude and sure to go well.
1 pt win Exmoor Ranger 9/1 Ladbrokes.
Similar profile, only weakness is his tendency to belt one- sure to have had plenty of schooling since his last run and won’t be far away with a clear round.Bets void racing abandoned- both tipped by Pricewise 2 days later by the way!
January
Staked 11.75 pts
Loss 0.5 pts.Blue Square Chase Doncaster Sat ante post
1 pt win 1/2 pt placeLeo’s Lucky Star
12/1 Coral, Tote.
David Pipe has been in great form since the freeze and this fella looks the type of unexposed sort that wins these kind of valuable handicaps.
fell 4/1 -1.5 pts.Champion Hurdle Ante Post
1.5 pts winGo Native
6/1 gen.
I think his fellow Irish raider is by far the biggest danger to Solwhit and want to back him before this weekend’s action in case Binocular flops again and causes them both to shorten. If he gets there in one piece I’ll be trading out around the home bend as I did last year when backing him at 16/1 ante post for the Supreme Novices- he’s bound to be on the bridle as they meet the hill with Carberry’s ass high in the air, but will he find enough to get past Solwhit?Champion Hurdle Ante Post
1.5 pts winGo Native
6/1 gen.
I think his fellow Irish raider is by far the biggest danger to Solwhit and want to back him before this weekend’s action in case Binocular flops again and causes them both to shorten. If he gets there in one piece I’ll be trading out around the home bend as I did last year when backing him at 16/1 ante post for the Supreme Novices- he’s bound to be on the bridle as they meet the hill with Carberry’s ass high in the air, butwill he find enough to get past Solwhit?
Answer NO!
I can see why you are hesitant Carv.
Agree, Go Native has talent, but like many of the stable / jockey’s horses, does not find much under pressure. Probably be a lot of people trying to lay it late. Might be too big a price to lay off if the Racing Post also mention it.Really like Solwhit. Good luck.
Value Is EverythingKachaturian runs at Bangor tomorrow, will go well.
With you on Leo’s Lucky Star at Doncaster, nice low racing weight and a strong traveller.
Go Native has some excellent recent form but the Champion Hurdle looks particularly high class this year, Solwhit is strong, Binocular has been disappointing of late but has solid previous form, Punjabi previous winner but disappointing last time…I’d be tempted to forgive Bincoular as he is still young and hopefully improving and should be in peak form come next month, not too bothered about how he or any other festival contenders run at the weekend to be honest, just a run out for many to find fitness.
4.00 Doncaster
0.75 pts each-wayBay Cherry
7/1 gen.
Leaving this as late as I dare because the price is coming under pressure but sod’s law dictates as soon as I put it up there will be a non-runner buggering up the dead 16. This horse looks sure to stay well and I can’t see him out of the 4 with a clear round.
PU 7/1 -1.5 pts.
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