Carvills Lays and Plays 2

[carvillshill]

Galway Plate
1.5 pt win 0.5 pt place

Northern Alliance

12-1 Bet 365
Thankfully both my ante-post punts have made the field and I just want to add one more- there was some doubt if this horse would run here or in the hurdle but they’ve made the right call- he’s one of the few progressive young chasers in it and has a big chance.
NR, stake returned.

Sussex Stakes
1 pt each-way

Paco Boy

best price tomorrow.
I’ll be racing tomorrow in Galway but my strategy will be to back Paco at any 4-1 I see or take the 7/2 if it looks like drying up, with one of the firms going 1/4 first 3. if there are non-runners in the morning it will be win only.
I’ve stated elsewhere that I think Rip Van Winkle is better suited to 10f and a flat track. Ghanaati is feared but Paco has the open Group 1 form in the book and is highly effective in a smallish field like tomorrows- I can’t see him out of the 3 anyway.
2nd 7/2 -.1 pt.

6.25 Galway
1 pt win

Mastern Commander

14/1 Paddy Power
This horse is a Tramore specialist and loves soft ground. Tramore is fairly similar to Galway. Shark Hanlon has his horses in good form and fancies this one tonight in first time blinkers.
4th 11/1 -1pt.

[carvillshill]

Galway Plate
Lay 0.75 pt win

Wins Now

6/1 Betfair
0.75 pt win 0.5 pt place

Knock On The Head

25-1 guaranteed generally
Take advantage of the pricewise hype surrounding our ante post selection to include one more horse- this fella ran a cracker in the Betfair chase at the Punchestown Festival which would put him right in this. He disappointed at Tipp but hadn’t run for a while and may have needed it. He loves soft ground and is over priced- you can get 33-1 with Stan James, have some on for me!
Wins Now unpl +0.75 pts KOTH 2nd 9/1 +2.2 pts (Rule 4)

5.05 Galway
1 pt win .

Tatacoa

11-1 Tote
Good course form, nice draw
3rd 10-1 -1pt.

Goodwood Mile Friday NRNB
1pt win

Marajaa

16/1 Paddy P
Won well yesterday, good draw.
Balloted out (reserve), money back.

[carvillshill]

3.10 Galway
1.5 pts win

Farinelli

3/1 guaranteed available.
A better horse over fences, his last hurdles flop can be excused. Montero surely needs further- I had him much bigger.
3rd 4/1 -1.5 pts.
5.40 Galway
2 pts win

No One Tells Me

5/2 Hills
Won well earlier in the week, much improved over hurdles since being handicapped on moderate Flat form, looks chucked in to me- I make him a 5/4 shot.
2nd 6/4 -2 pts.
5.00 Galway
1 pt win

See You Bob

14-1 gen.
Paul Nolan and the Galway Hurdle, nice light weight- must have a squeak.
unpl 12/1 -1 pt.
3.45 Galway
1 pt each-way

Flame of Ireland

take any show bigger than 10-1, or else take 10-1.
Unlucky latest, ground OK.
3rd 8/1 +1.5 pts

[carvillshill]

6.50 Galway
2 pts win

Sesenta

6/1 Paddy P
Ran a belter in the Ascot Stakes latest, tough game mare, 4lbs rise seems fair to me, better than these.
unpl 9/2 -2 pts.

6.15 Galway
1 pt win

Plaisir d’Estruval

7/1 guaranteed bet 365
A bit speculative but one of the few unexposed young horses in here- most of the market leaders are due their bus passes and Reisk Superman needs better ground and further.
unpl 10/3 -1 pt.

5.10 Galway
1 pt win

Dark Arctic

12/1 Hills
Won well latest, overpriced.
1 pt win

Media Queen

5/1 guaranteed gen.
Solid, good pilot.
unpl 8/1, unpl 4/1 -2 pts.

8.25 Galway
1 pt each-way

Bahrain Storm

3/1 Bet 365, 1/4 123.
Has excellent Flat form and bolted up yesterday in the Hurdle, has a similar chance to the odds-on fav if turning out again.
won 3/1 +3.75 pts.

Taking end of June and July together

Staked 52.5
Loss 3.45.

[carvillshill]

Steward’s Cup Goodwood
1 pt win

Advanced

25-1 Hills, others.
Ran a cracker in the Wokingham, a well-trodden path for winners of this. Looked like you needed to be high yesterday and I’d expect Niel Callan to go far side.
1 pt win

Markab

10/1 gen.
Blasted clear of the near side in the Wokingham, draw might not be ideal but big chance on that run and won’t mind a bit of rain.
unpl 20/1, 4th 15/2 -2pts.

3.30 Galway
1 pt win

My Valley

6/1 guaranteed gen.
A standing dish around here, ran another cracker here earlier in the week.
3rd 9/2 -1 pt.

4.30 Galway
2 pts win

Moonlight Sapphire

8/1 paddy P
A right rick, won’t last long!
unpl 4/1 -2 pts.

2.55 Galway
1 pt win

Paco Jack

7/1 Paddy P
Ran well here behind Natal, one of the few sure to appreciate conditions today
won 7/1 +7 pts (guaranteed odds)

[carvillshill]

4.00 Galway
1 pt win

Maundy Money

6/1 Hills
Good course form and well drawn,especially now stalls 14 and 15 don’t run. Ran very well in the Mile here on Tuesday and this trip will suit even better.
3rd 9/2 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

7.50 Newmarket
1.5 pts win

Native Ruler

2/1 Ladbrokes
This horse ran too free at Royal Ascot and should be better suited by both the drop in trip and the smaller field today. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tom Queally elected to make all.
3rd 7/4 -1.5 pts.

[carvillshill]

3.05 Tipperary
1 pt win

Just For Mary

11/2 guaranteed Ladbrokes
Back to his right trip and proven on the ground must take beating here against a host of non-winners and has-beens. Daring Man is feared most.
2nd 5/1 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes Ante Post
1 pt win

Radiohead

7/1 Bet 365
With the defection of Fleeting Spirit this is starting to look a bit ordinary. I love the 2yo angle in these later season sprints as they get an obscene amount of weight- Kingsgate Native took advantage 2 years ago. I was hoping Sheikh Mo would target Jealous Again here but Radiohead is a decent alternative. I’d have more on but he wouldn’t want soft ground and this summer nothing is certain, however 7/1 looks worth the risk.
3rd 9/2 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

Juddmonte International york Ante Post
1.5 pts win

Mastercraftsman

3/1 gen.
I don’t for one minute think this horse can beat Sea The Stars if he appears on good ground but that is far from certain. Even if the fav makes the gig I think we’ll be able to hedge out without doing too much damage. If Sea The Stars misses the race he’ll be very short- he has no ground issues.
2nd 3/1 -1.5 pts.

[carvillshill]

5.20 Salisbury
1 pt win

Colonel Flay

5/1 guaranteed Paddy Power
What the market fails to price in here is this horse’s effectiveness off a break- he runs his best races fresh and is well suited by today’s conditions. The early non-runners are also no harm as he will be picking his way through from the back. I’m intending to lay may stake back in-running at a short price as he has flattered to deceive before.
3rd 4/1 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

7.20 Tramore
1.5 pts win

Darenjan

7/2 guaranteed Ladbrokes, Betfred.
I was very impressed with the way this horse won a handicap hurdle at Galway having not been seen since last year’s meeting- a top training performance by The Shark. That win makes him a bit better than these ordinary Flat horses and his course form here at Tramore is a bonus. There has been some rain in Wexford but the going is currently yielding and it looks like they won’t get much more- current conditions would be fine and he surely won’t run if it turns soft.
won 2/1 +5.25 pts.

[carvillshill]

Nunthorpe Stakes Ante Post
1 pt win

Radiohead

6/1 Ladbrokes
The risk of soft ground looks smaller now and he’s been confirmed as a definite runner so I want to press up my original bet- 6/1 still looks on the big side to me.
3rd 9/2 -1 pt.

St. Leger Ante Post
Lay 1 pt

Kite Wood

up to 11/2 Betfair.
Horses proven over the Leger trip counterintuitively have a terrible record in the race and there has been an overreaction to his win on Saturday. The Leger looks strong and I much prefer the likes of Age Of Aquarius and Harbinger at this stage.
2nd 9/4 +1pt.

International Stakes
2.5 pts win

Sea The Stars

2/5 guaranteed bet 365
Our gamble of him not showing up didn’t pay off and after Tartan Bearer’s defection I’m happier to hedge by backing the fav than trying to lay Mastercraftsman at nearly 11/4. This leaves STS as a small loser and MC as a small winner.
won 1/4 +1pt.

Ebor Ante Post
1 pt win, 1/2 pt place

Manyriverstocross

16/1 bet 365
Bookies seem to be racting to his draw in stall 20 but i don’t see that as any problem- he’ll be dropped out and will be produced late.
unpl 12/1 -1.5 pts.

[carvillshill]

2:50 York
1 pt win Acrostic best morning price(6/1)
1.5 pt win Lovelace 11-1 Bet365
3rd 5/1, unpl 8/1 -2.5 pts.

[carvillshill]

7:15 Bath
1 pt win

Captain Carey

5/2 guaranteed generally
Showed a nice turn of foot at Windsor and the from looks better all the time. Has course form at Bath which ia a big plus.
unpl 11/4 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

Haydock Sprint Cup Ante Post
2 pts win

High Standing

6/1 Bet 365
This doesn’t look too competitive to me and looks readily reducible to a few at the front of the market, notably the selection and Fleeting Spirit. The filly is quite easy to back at present and would be of some interest nearer the day at current odds but this horse has looked destined for the top this season after impressive come-from-behind performances in the Wokingham and in a Group 3 at Newbury latest. He won’t mind a bit of cut and gets the 6f really well.
3rd 4/1 -2 pts.

[carvillshill]

4.30 Galway
1.5 pt win

The Last Derby

3/1 Bet 365
Wins Now may come out but just over 2/1 with the Rule 4 would still be OK about this horse who impressed me at Kilbeggan last time. He has the edge in class on Steve Capall on hurdles form. I hope Wins Now runs as he ran poorly yesterday and is readily opposed.
3rd 11/8 -1.5 pts

5.15 Curragh
1.5 pts win

Look Busy

7/2 guaranteed gen.
Ladbrokes 4/1 didn’t make it to shop opening but 7/2 is still big about this 5f specialist who showed she handles this ground at Haydock. She prefers a small field where she can pick her way through and won this race last year. I make her about a 2/1 shot in this field. Snaefell is the biggest danger.
unpl 11/4 -1.5 pts

5.00 Galway
2 pts win

Washington Lad

7/1 guaranteed bet 365, 13/2 elsewhere.
Looked the winner of the Galway Plate half a mile out but was collared. Taking a big class drop today and the Plate would be 3 grades above the race that Paco Jack won, so hard to understand the betting.
unpl 6/1 – 2 pts.

3.30 Galway
1 pt win

Silverhand

6/1 Paddy P, Betfred
Has looked as if this step up to 2 1/2 miles will suit. Ground a slight doubt but taking a chance as he showed himself to be in great form with a win on the Flat recently. Eagle’s Pass has a big chance on the book but looks a bit out of form as does Trucker’s Delight, who’s had a lot of racing.
unpl 7/2 -1 pt.

3.45 Curragh
1 point win

Long Lashes

11/4 g Paddy Power
The one major advantage this filly has over the fav is her proven ability to handle the ground, which might be crucial today. Lily Langtry is by Danehill Dancer but has looked very well suited to fast ground so far and the combination of 7f on very testing ground might find her out. I love the way the selection was able to win at Listed level first time out and early on for Godawful is the time to back these horses before they bugger them up.
unpl 5/2 -1 pt.

August
Staked 33 pts.
Loss 8.75 pts.

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