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Carvills Lays and Plays 2

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Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 159 total)
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  • #11909
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    I’ve decided to have a second go at this to try and change my luck: after my best ever start to the year the last 2 months have been an unmitigated disaster and I’ve given back more than half of my 09 profits. Having to justify my bets on here is excellent discipline and maybe it’ll turn things around.

    1.5 pts each-way Rip Van Winkle 9/2 Hills Coral Eclipse Sat.
    Hills are making a big rick still allowing each-way on this race as there are unlikely to be 8 runners. Take full advantage with an overpriced horse who is no forlorn hope to turn around Epsom form given the improvement APOB’s horses are making with each run.
    2nd 11/2 -0.2 pt.

    2 pts win Fame and Glory 7/1 Tote/Paddy Power Arc de Triomphe
    I can’t believe people weren’t impressed with him yesterday, looks a natural for the Arc to me and has no ground issues.

    If I could just ask people not to discuss the bets on this thread, just clogs it up- PM me instead or contribute on the discussion threads, thanks!

    #237259
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    St. Leger Ante Post
    2 pts win

    Golden Sword

    9/2 Tote.
    I’m banking on a) taking a strong view of the worth of the Irish Derby form some others have downgraded b) reading the mind of Ballydoyle regarding their 3yo colts this year in having bets on the Arc and the Leger this far out. If I were them, Golden Sword would be the natural horse to target at Doncaster and if he does turn up he’s likely to be a warm order if he doesn’t regress during the season. I doubt he has the class to win one of the big all-aged Group 1 races this summer but his form in the two Derbys would be enough to make him a strong favourite in an average Leger.

    7:30 Fairyhouse 7fG3
    1 pt win

    Heart Shaped

    2/1 guaranteed available
    If you watch the video of the Coronation this filly was bang there until the death despite a rough passage. Dropping back to 7f should suit even better and this is a big class drop. It’ll be disappointing if she can’t win this.
    unpl 2/1 -1 pt.

    #237591
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Bellewstown 7:15
    1 pt win

    Doorock

    7/1 guaranteed
    This is a unique track especially the 5f and course form counts bigger here. This horse has won twice over C and D and his 5 draw should be good as he races prominently, which helps here. He’s a little higher than his last win but the class of race is fairly similar.
    Unpl 11/2 -1 pt.

    #237722
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Sandown 2:40
    1 pt win

    Alfathaa

    best morning price (9/1 tonight)
    If you watch the Hunt Cup again this horse suffers a poor run in mid-pack of the stands side group before getting going all to late- some run first time out. He was one of two I took from that race, the other being Nanton, who ran all over the track yet finished one place in front of him.This horse was thought good enough to run in the Guineas last year before losing his way subsequently and can reward the assessor’s generosity in dropping him a pound for the Ascot run.A stiff mile here should be perfect and he should be able to get cover early before a late challenge. Mirrorred is feared but hasn’t been missed by the layers after winning the far side in the Britannia and unlike the selection, has had a dose from the handicapper for his trouble. I fancy Alfathaa to turn the tables on the Hunt Cup second Huzzah who enjoyed a better draw and passage through that race. A bigger danger might be Crackdown, who did a lot of running from a middle draw to lead in the Britannia and might be more effective around a bend from a decent draw for a front-runner.
    unpl 7/1 -1 pt.

    #238053
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    King George Ascot ante-post
    2 pts win

    Conduit

    3/1 bet 365
    I’m taking the view that the Eclipse is the strongest race run so far this season and even though this horse was ultimately well beaten he went down to 2 exceptional colts. I’ve a feeling the opposition may melt away a bit for Ascot over a better trip for him and can see him starting considerably shorter on the day. Sea The Stars is unlikely to be given another hard race so soon and I think they’ll stick to 10f or less with Rip Van Winkle. Fame And Glory will surely be given a mid-season break before targets at the backend. I’d be interested in double-figure quotes about Golden Sword if he’s committed to this but it’s setting up to be another poor renewal and a further nail in the coffin of this being the premier summer middle-distance race.
    won 13/8 +6 pts.

    #238129
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Bunbury Cup Newmarket Friday ante-post
    1 pt win

    Giganticus

    9/1 Victor C.
    Winner of the race in ’07 off 94 and 5th last year he lines up off 98 on Friday after winning the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot. A 7lbs hike looks fair enough and I find it hard to see those behind him reversing the form especially as he loves the July course. his favourite conditions are a straight 7f on good or better in a decent sized field giving him horses to run at- all of which he’ll get on Friday. The sexy horse is Jeremy Noseda’s Captain Brilliance who many will be backing to do a Forgotten Voice but I’d rather have Giganticus at the prices.
    Unpl 9/1 -1 pt.

    King George Ante Post
    1 pt each-way

    Golden Sword

    10-1 Bet 365/Hills
    It looks increasingly likely that this horse will run and he’s overpriced in a weak field. His forcing tactics could be well suited to Ascot and he looks a good bet to at least place.
    unpl 5/1 -2 pts.

    #238481
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    2.00 Newmarket
    1 pt win

    Shamwari Lodge

    13/2 generally
    Worth nicking this price as the first race showed high is at least no disadvantage.
    unpl 11/2 -1 pt.

    July Cup NRNB
    1 pt win 1/2 pt place

    African Rose

    20-1 Hills, Bet 365.
    Looks a big price for a Group 1 winner last year, stiff 6f should suit well. The big doubt is the ground, but I assume they won’t run her if it’s considered too fast- if it rains her price will collapse and good should be OK on this track with its uphill finish. Her draw looks OK in the light of today’s racing as well.
    Unpl 25/1 -1.5 pts.

    2.00 Newmarket
    1 pt win

    Habaayib

    3/1 Betfair
    Much bigger price than expected.
    2nd 9/4 -1 pt.

    #239047
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    1.50 Ascot 7f HCap 3yo
    1.5 pts win

    Secret Society

    best morning price (3/1 tonight)
    This horse ran a belter in the "3yo Hunt Cup" being tugged sharply left from stall 13 to race stand side, then having to switch around that whole group to challenge up the middle. He then possibly hit the front too soon before being collared late. The form of this race is beginning to work out with Brief Encounter who was behind him winning today. His biggest danger may well be the fourth Espiritu but he had a more even passage from his high draw and of the two may be less suited to dropping back a furlong. If there’s a worry it’s the lack of obvious pace in the race but I’m hoping the hard-pulling Feeling Fab is allowed to stride on or that Surour makes it as he did in the Britannia.
    won 10-3 +5pts
    3.10 York
    I’m keen to take on yet another handicap "good thing" here in Riggins- I was underwhelmed with his last win and the fact that he missed Ascot with a setback is no advantage going into a super-competitive race like this one.
    1 pt win

    Unbreak My Heart

    20-1 Tote
    R Fahey, good draw, right age, last 2 runs had the look of preps for this- I predict he could be a steamer tomorrow- can’t see the 20-1 lasting long anyway.
    unpl 16-1 -1 pt
    1 pt win

    Seeking The Buck

    12-1 generally
    Similarly good trends fit- in form, good draw.
    4th 8/1 -1 pt
    3:30 Chester 5f LR
    1 pt win

    Rievaulx World

    best am price (12-1 tonight) (if ground stays fast)
    If ever a horse was made for stall 1 at Chester it’s Rievaulx World. He’s quite simply the fastest sprinter over the first 3f I’ve seen for a while and if he’s not in front around the Chester bend it’ll be because he’s died in the stalls. In-running punters could look to trade out but though he’s got a few pounds to find I’ll probably risk it that he holds on. Lots of rain would be a negative though, watch the weather- may well delete him in the morning if the ground changes.
    unpl 11-1 -1 pt
    5:30 York
    1 pt win

    Striking Spirit

    12-1 guaranteed Boyles
    I don’t know what I’m missing here but this horse looks a huge price to me. He ran a cracker in the Wokingham leading for a long way from stall 20. Previously he had no chance from his draw at Epsom. I had him about a 6/1 chance from what should be a good draw at a track much more suited to forcing tactics.
    won 15-2 + 12 pts

    #239207
    ratpack
    Member
    • Total Posts 96

    Nice start again carvills.

    Curious to know though are you still getting on with these bookmakers at the advised prices (ie Boyles) or are they notional selections as I remember you bemoaning that you were getting closed down/restricted a lot lately?

    #239259
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Luckily I have a Boyles and a Ladbrokes shop quite close and my missus does all the picking up. I also have an agent who has a few men in shops in the UK who I can ring, though starting to use him coincided with an awful run so I left him out for a while- he’s sure to become more important.The only bookies who are still laying me in size online are Bet 365, bless ’em- not sure why!

    #239270
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    4.45 Curragh Rockingham HCap 5f
    1 pt win

    Croisultan

    14-1 guaranteed generally.
    This race has been good to me and 16-1 Rainbow Rising got me off to a flyer on here 2 years ago. I really wanted to have a bet here because I feel there will be a significant draw bias on the soft ground to the low numbers. Even though at first glance the record of 3yos in this race doesn’t look great, one was pipped in 2006 showing they can win. The story apart from the draw with Criosultan is that his record on gd/s or worse is 113621 and his prominent racing style can see him bag the rail and be hard to pass as he stays further than this.
    unpl 14/1 -1 pt.

    #240030
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    5.20 Newmarket
    1 pt win

    Biniou

    9/2 guaranteed available
    Even though there are only 6 runners left here there are a lot of horses who want to lead or be prominent. I don’t think the favourite Equuleus Pictor will act in the dip on the July course and I think Jamie Spencer will be able to drop out and do these late on up the hill- that’s the theory anyway…
    won 4/1 +4.5 pts.

    #240237
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    5.30 Ayr
    1 pt win

    Rocket Ruby

    7/2 guaranteed Bet 365
    Knocking at the door last few starts, early speed should help here against fairly moderate opposition.
    2nd 11/4 -1 pt.

    #240521
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    King George Ante Post
    Lay 1 pt

    Conduit

    7/4 Betfair, if already backed at 3/1 as advised.
    The news that Ryan Moore has made his mind up should allow a lay at this price or shorter in the next 24hrs (has for me anyway). Conduit looks no more than fairly priced to me now and a 1pt exposure is enough for me, especially as I’m also on Golden Sword.
    won 13/8 -1.75 pts.

    #240677
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Galway Plate Ante-Post
    1 pt win 1/2pt place

    Hill Fairy

    33/1 generally.
    I joined in the ante-post gamble on Oslot last year but have some reservations about Mr Nicholls’ representative Roby de Chambre this time: I’m not sure he’ll be at his best on likely testing ground, I’m not sure he wants to go right-handed (though he won one uncompetitive race that way around) and lastly am unconvinced by his jumping- he gets to the other side but isn’t the quickest and the two fences in the dip mightn’t suit him.
    I was hoping Alan King might send King Troy but he doesn’t, so I’ve been watching the market for my other fancy Hill Fairy. There were nibbles yesterday and a bit on the lay side on Betfair so I’m assuming she’s an intended runner. This mare is a previous Galway winner on the Flat over 2m at last year’s festival showing good resolution to stay on well up the hill. She’s only had 3 runs over fences which is a concern but she jumps well and for me ran a great trial over 2m1f the last day when finishing a decent third to Royal County Star and Knight Legend on unfavourable terms at Killarney. The step up in trip should be a bonus given last year’s Flat win and her hurdles form and she’s got a handy 10-3.
    NR -1.5 pts

    #241032
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    Galway Plate Ante Post
    1 pt win 1/2pt place

    Wins Now

    14-1 Hills
    I didn’t think this horse had any chance of getting in the race but a few look likely to defect now because of the soft ground (Majestic Concorde, Northern Alliance) and he just might sneak in. If he does he’s one of the few unexposed chasers in it and he’d be chucked in if recapturing his hurdles form. He’s looked a bit of a slow learner over fences but put it together in a beginners chase at Tipperary latest on soft ground when sluicing up. Slippers Madden will surely ride again and if he gets in he’ll start a single figure price for sure.
    5th 6/1 -1.5 pts.

    #241128
    carvillshill
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2778

    7.35 Galway
    1 pt win

    Spavento

    8/1 Hills
    Solid, ground and trip OK, bit of a worry that she’s 0/14 but doesn’t look ungenuine to me. Overpriced.
    More to follow, this will be a busy week.
    3rd 5/1 -1 pt.
    8.10 Galway
    1 pt win

    Vivacious Vivienne

    8/1 Hills/Bet 365
    Looked much improved for the step up in trip at Bellewstown- looks a real stayer which is what you’ll need tonight. Ground is a concern but she coped with it at Navan in May well enough to give hope on that score.
    unpl 11/2 -1 pt.
    6.20 Galway
    1pt each-way

    Banyan Tree

    7/2 guaranteed Paddy Power
    In what looks a match, I didn’t have as much between the front 2 as the odds-compilers. PPs 1/4 first 3 is an added bonus.
    2nd 7/2 -0.1 pt.
    5.45 Galway
    1 pt win

    Glitter Baby

    14/1 Hills, Bet 365, Ladbrokes.
    I have fond memories of this mare from when she won here last year on the Flat at 20-1. She also has two third places around Galway and obviously loves it there. Ground will be OK.
    5th 10-1 -1 pt.
    7.00 Galway
    1 pt win

    Fisher Bridge

    14/1 guaranteed.
    Decent hurdles form including a win in a valuable handicap hurdle at Fairyhouse make him look well treated here under Nina Carberry. He has form on soft ground.
    unpl 10-1 -1 pt.
    1 pt win

    Sophocles

    16/1 guaranteed.
    Slightly more from left field but he’s won around here and has some really good old bumper form so no forlorn hope.
    unpl 12/1 -1 pt.

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