Carvills Lays and Plays 2

[carvillshill]

Grand Annual Chase ante post
1 pt win 1/2 pt place all selections NRNB

Shoreacres

20/1 Paddy P, Tote

You’re The Top

16/1 gen.

Copper Bleu

14/1 gen.

My Moment

40/1 Coral.

Light-weighted improvers are the order of the day in this, many of these may either not run or not get in, but if they do…

Festival Plate ante post
1 pt each-way

I’m So Lucky

16/1 Tote NRNB
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Song Of Songs

14/1 Coral NRNB

[Salselon]

How do you get different stakes (1 pt win, 1/2 pt place) with traditional bookmakers?

[davidbrady]

2 separate bets

1/2 point each-way and then 1/2 point win

[Salselon]

[carvillshill]

World Hurdle without Big Buck’s
1 pt each way

Time For Rupert

10/1 Paddy Power
I’m not totally convinced Tidal Bay is going to reproduce his Cleeve Hurdle run. The vibes are poor about Karabak. I don’t think Sentry Duty will stay. Cousin Vinny can’t jump hurdles or fences. Katchit has gone at the game and War Of Attrition is too old and too slow. Time For Rupert is on the up and ran a belter in the Cleeve in with the big boys for the first time. He will surely improve for the experience and must have a great chance of at least being in the 3 in this market.

Neptune Inv. Nov Hurdle.
1 pt win

Quel Esprit

6/1 Hills.
I must beg forgiveness for some slight aftertiming here as this price has gone tonight since I backed him but there’s a serious head of steam building up behind this smashing grey who can’t have been right when beaten at Leopardstown. The vibes in the past few days are very strong and even the 5/1 might be worth taking as Rite Of Passage is a doubtful stayer and moderate jumper and Peddler’s Cross looks like he might go in the Supreme.

Triumph Hurdle
Lay 1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Secant Star

9/1 Betfair.(If backed previously at 25/1)
Again I’m happy to trade out to leave this horse a decent winner on the day- he’s about the right price now. I would be tempted to back Alaivan on the day if the ground were soft.
Imperial Cup
1 pt win

Aather

9/1 Tote,Boyles, Stan James.
This horse has looked an improved sort on his last 2 starts and may have hit the front too soon at Cheltenham last time. There are few better hold up jockeys than Timmy Murphy who can produce him after the last.
unpl -1 pt.

County Hurdle Ante Post NRNB
1 pt win

Aather

16/1 gen.
If he wins the Imperial Cup he might just sneak into the bottom of the County Hurdle under a penalty which would put him on 10-3. He’d be a decent 16/1 chance then.
NR

[carvillshill]

Cross Country Chase Cheltenham
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Another Jewel

20-1 gen.
Won the PP Hogan well last time which has been a good guide to this race.
Gets lots of weight and may not have the class of JPs two but could easily sneak a place.

[carvillshill]

RSA Chase NRNB
0.75 pt each way

The Nightingale

14/1 Hills
More of a trading bet than anything- I have a feeling that Messrs Nicholls and Mullins will be having a chat this weekend and that only one of this horse and Citizen Vic will run with Ruby on board. That being the case if this one gets the nod he won’t be 14/1. If you have access to 20-1 Citizen Vic that’s also worth taking- I can’t get it.
Supreme NH NRNB
1/2 pt each way

Flat Out

20/1 Paddy P with money back if Dunguib wins, or Betfred equivalent free bet whatever wins!
Anyone who doesn’t have a few punts on the Supreme with these concessions is missing a trick. This is the Mullins second string but with these young unexposed horses I doubt the pecking order is that easy to establish. This dual bumper winner hurdled well on his debut at Punchestown. Lightly raced hurdlers have a good record in the Festival opener.

[carvillshill]

William Hill Trophy
1/2 pt win

Kicks For Free

28/1 Betfair
Festival form is a valuable commodity this week and he has two good previous runs. Paul Nicholls seems fairly sweet on him in his column and if he jumps he’s got an outside chance.

National Hunt Novice Chase
1.5 pts win, 1/2 pt place

Becauseicouldntsee

12/1 gen.
Get the last of the 12/1 before people realise that Nina Carberry is jocked up- sure to start shorter. Better than his last two runs as needs to go left-handed, has decent prospects of staying.

Coral Cup
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Hampshire Express

28/1 Vic C, or 25/1 Paddy P.
Willie Mullins only has this horse for his last two starts and as such may have inherited a well handicapped contender here. He impressed me when winning at Gowran Park and could be well ahead of even his revised English mark.

[carvillshill]

Coral Cup
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Silverhand

33/1 Hills, Betfred.
I think this horse could still be well handicapped at this trip as he has classy 2 mile Flat form. He runs well fresh and Paul Carberry’s holdup stalking style works well in this type of race.

4 mile Chase
1/2 pt each way

Pennek

28/1 gen.
3rd in the Pertemps last year, he’s sure to appreciate the trip and will be staying on when many have cried enough.

Lay 1 pt

Synchronised

8/1 Betfair (if previously backed at 10/1)
My confidence in Jonjo’s is lessened by the drying ground, I’m happy to leave him a small winner and use the stake elsewhere in the race.

Neptune Inv. NH
1/2 pt each way

Ghizao

20/1 Coral, Tote.
I’m a bit anxious about the ground for Quel Esprit and am still keen to take on Rite Of Passage so want another runner here. The good ground may suit this horse better than many shorter in the betting.

RSA Chase
1/2 pt each way

Little Josh

66/1 Hills.
I can’t really justify this bet but every year a big price sneaks into the frame here and NTD’s horse could just improve massively for the step up in trip- if he jumps around that is!

Champion Chase
1 pt each way

Kalahari King

9/2 g. gen.
Looks the only danger to the favourite to me and the ground has come right for him.

Fred Winter
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Stormy Weather

16/1 gen.
Classy on the Flat, looked to be getting his act together the last day- off a handy mark given he was Listed class on the level.

Ryanair Chase
1 pt win

Jack The Giant

33/1 gen.
Nicky Henderson is a master at bringing horses back from extended layoffs. This horse has course form and goes well fresh- he’s not out of it.
1 pt win

Voy Por Ustedes

16/1 gen.
Has seemingly lost the plot this season but if the blinkers work the oracle he’s got a chance over a course and distance that he loves.

[carvillshill]

Kim Muir
1 pt win

Ma Yahab

25/1 gen.
Venetia is my go to trainer for the handicaps at the Festival, this horse disappointed in this race in 08 but has obviously been primed for another go.
1/2 pt each way

Boychuck

14/1 Hills (1/4 1st 5)
Excellent Cheltenham record and top jockey booked.
County Hurdle
1 pt win

Tarkari

16/1 gen.
Sneaks in on 10-3, good winner latest and ran well in what used to be the Pierse, a good trial for this.
1 pt win

Oldrik

14/1 Hills
Ran a stormer in the Imperial Cup, possibly in front too soon, handy weight here.
Foxhunters
1 pt win

Gentle George

20/1 gen.
Promising young hunter, good pilot, will be prominent out of trouble.
Grand Annual
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Safari Journey

20/1 gen.
Lightly weighted consistent novice, stable on fire.

[carvillshill]

Foxhunters
1 pt win

Chestnut Annie

28/1 Hills.
If she can get into a rhythm in front she could run a big race here.
1 pt win

Turthen

16/1 gen.
Second last year, in good form in points.
Martin Pipe CJHH
1 pt win

Meath All Star

14/1 gen.
Didn’t run that bad in Dunguib’s bumper last year and this has always been the plan. Sneaks in under a penalty and rider’s extra claim will help. Love the trainer.
9.20 Wolverhampton
5 pts win

Me Fein

2/1 gen.
No explanation needed.
Won 5/6 God bless you Barney! Tom Queally gave me a heart attack…
+10 pts.
Gold Cup
1 pt each way

Denman, Imperial Commander, Cooldine

5/1, 15/2, 10/1.
Kauto looks hard to beat but Gold Cups are funny races sometimes. If two of these make the frame the downside is small and one might cop if the favourite underperforms. You wouldn’t get these each way terms on course!
Midlands National
1 pt win

Ballydub

10-1 Vic C, (11-1 Blue Sq)
If he ever gets his jumping together he’s ridiculously well handicapped. Blinkers and these easy fences might be the charm.
fell 8/1 -1 pt.

Will do a full Cheltenham reconciliation early next week.

[carvillshill]

Midlands National
1/2 pt win

Inoma James

8/1 Hills
I was against this horse last night on the prevailing ground but it’s raining and could be ideal by post time so in a race where Irish horses do very well he’s worth a saver.
1/2 pt win

Lorum Leader

50/1 Betfair
Not completely out of this.
Both unpl -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

Supreme Novices
1/2 pt each way

Get Me Out Of Here

14/1 2nd 9/2 +3 pts.
1/2 pt each way

Flat Out

20/1 unpl 20/1 -1 pt.
1/2 pt each way

General Millar

33/1 fell 25/1 – 1 pt.
Total +1pt.
Disappointed that despite the bismarck Dunguib being sunk I didn’t take better advantage- a straight lay of the favourite would have been better.

Arkle Chase
1 pt win

Captain Cee Bee

12/1
Lay 1 pt

Captain Cee Bee

6/1 unpl 5/2 0
1.5 pts win 1/2 pt place

Sports Line

12/1. Unpl 17/2 – 2 pts.
Total -2 pts.
The first bet I struck on the Arkle this year was on Sizing Europe in November. Unfortunately I deserted him after Leopardstown, a premature move. Total 0

William Hill Trophy
1 pt win

Exmoor Ranger

16/1
1 pt each way

Exmoor Ranger

14/1 b.d. 20/1 -3 pts.
1/2 pt win

Kicks For Free

28/1 0 -1 pt.
Total -4 pts.

Champion Hurdle
1.5 pts win

Solwhit

6/1 unpl 6/1 -1.5 pts.
1.5 pts win

Go Native

6/1 unpl 11/4 -1.5 pts.
Total -3 pts.

Cross Country
1 pt each way

l’Ami

4/1 2nd 4/1 0
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Another Jewel

20/1 4th 16/1 +1.5 pts.
Total +1.5 pts.

NH Chase
1.5 pts win 1/2 pt place

Becauseicouldntsee

12/1 2nd 13/2 0
1/2 pt each way

Pennek

28/1. unpl 16/1 -1 pt.
Total -1 pt.

Neptune NH
1 pt win

Quel Esprit 6/1

fell -1 pt.
1.5 win 1 pt place

Finians Rainbow

10/1
lay 1 pt each way

Finians Rainbow

8/1 unpl 11/2
1/2 pt each way

Ghizao 20/1

unpl 20/1
Total -2.5 pts.

RSA
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Weapons Amnesty

16/1
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Weapons Amnesty

14/1 won 10/1
1/2 pt each way

Little Josh

66/1 unpl 28/1 -1 pt +34.5 pts.

A huge result. In reality I laid a bit back after Solwhit ran moderately as the stable form was questionable.

Champion Chase
1 pt each way

Kalahari King

5/1. 3rd 9/2 + 0.25 pts.
Total +0.25

Coral Cup
2 pts win 1 pt place

Sir Harry Ormesher

16/1 unpl 12/1 -3 pts.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Lake Legend

14/1 unpl 18/1 -1.5 pts.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Silverhand

33/1 unpl 22/1 -1.5 pts.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Hampshire Express

28/1 fell 16/1 -1.5 pts.
Total – 7.5 pts.

Fred Winter
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Stormy Weather

16/1 unpl 10/1 -1.5 pts.
Total -1.5 pts.

Bumper
1.5 win 1/2 pt place

Bishopsfurze

16/1 unpl 20/1 -2 pts.
Total -2 pts.

Jewson
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

China Rock

12/1 4th 9/1 +1/2 pt.
1 pt win

The Hollinwell

10/1 P 12/1 -1 pt.
Total -1/2 pt.

Ryanair
1 pt win

Voy Por Ustedes

16/1 unpl 9/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win

Jack The Giant

33/1 unpl 25/1 -1 pt.
Total -2 pts.

World Hurdle
1 pt each way

Time For Rupert

10/1 w/o Big Buck’s
won +12.5 pts.

Festival Plate
1 pt each way

I’m So Lucky

16/1 unpl 11/1 -2 pts.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Song Of Songs

14/1 fell 10/1 -1.5 pts.
Total – 3.5 pts.

Kim Muir
1 pt win

Ma Yahab

25/1 4th 14/1 -1 pt.
1/2 pt each way

Boychuk

14/1 unpl 10/1 -1 pt.
Total -2 pts.

Triumph
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Secant Star

25/1
Laid 1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Secant Star

9/1. NR
Total 0

County
1 pt win

Tarkari

16/1 unpl 14/1 -1 pt
1 pt win

Oldrik

14/1 unpl 8/1 -1 pt.
Total -2 pts.

Albert Bartlett
1 pt win

Enterprise Park

10/1 P 11/1 -1 pt.
Total -1 pt.

Gold Cup
1 pt each way

Denman, Imperial Commander, Cooldine

5/1, 15/2, 10/1.
2nd 4/1, won 7/1, unpl 10/1. +7.7 pts.

Foxhunters
1 pt win

Gentle George

20/1 4th 10/1 -1 pt
1 pt win

Chestnut Annie

28/1 unpl 22/1 -1 pt.
1 pt win

Turthen

16/1 unpl 10/1 -1 pt.
Total -3 pts.

M Pipe
1 pt win

Meath All Star

14/1 unpl 12/1 -1 pt.

Grand Annual
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

You’re The Top

16/1 P 13/2 -1.5 pts.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Safari Journey

20/1 unpl 12/1 -1.5 pts.
Total -3 pts.

Cheltenham Totals
Staked 63 pts
Profit 17 pts.

The thread did OK but I’m taking some valuable lessons forward to next year:
1. Less NRNB.
The bookies are copping on to this and markets are now very tight in the handicaps- mostly better to wait until the day.
2.Careful of stable form going in and during the meeting.
I put a lot of eggs in the Mullins and King baskets, both struggled a bit. Were I not already on I doubt I’d have backed 2 Alan King horses in the Coral Cup for instance.
3. Less laying back of ante post.
I backed Menorah and Sizing Europe ante post (not on this thread) but laid it all back. I also gave back a good chunk of Weapons. Crazy stuff.
4. Pack in in-running.
I’ve decided I’m not temperamentally suited to in-running betting- having backed Buena Vista at 20 on Betfair I got rid of it all after 2 hurdles when I decided he was running too free. I also laid Dee E Williams for a place in the County deciding he wouldn’t get home (fantastic run to finish where he did!)
5. Previous Festival form, previous Festival form previous Festival form…. Horses like The Hollinwell are at a massive disadvantage aginat the likes of Copper Bleu who have been there before and got the equine tee shirt.

All in all though a big sense of relief to be back well in front on the year thanks to Cheltenham and Barney!

[tbracing]

Cheltenham Totals
Staked 63 pts
Profit 17 pts.

The thread did OK but I’m taking some valuable lessons forward to next year:
1. Less NRNB.
The bookies are copping on to this and markets are now very tight in the handicaps- mostly better to wait until the day.
2.Careful of stable form going in and during the meeting.
I put a lot of eggs in the Mullins and King baskets, both struggled a bit. Were I not already on I doubt I’d have backed 2 Alan King horses in the Coral Cup for instance.
3. Less laying back of ante post.
I backed Menorah and Sizing Europe ante post (not on this thread) but laid it all back. I also gave back a good chunk of Weapons. Crazy stuff.
4. Pack in in-running.
I’ve decided I’m not temperamentally suited to in-running betting- having backed Buena Vista at 20 on Betfair I got rid of it all after 2 hurdles when I decided he was running too free. I also laid Dee E Williams for a place in the County deciding he wouldn’t get home (fantastic run to finish where he did!)
5. Previous Festival form, previous Festival form previous Festival form…. Horses like The Hollinwell are at a massive disadvantage aginat the likes of Copper Bleu who have been there before and got the equine tee shirt.

All in all though a big sense of relief to be back well in front on the year thanks to Cheltenham and Barney!

Well done Denis good return on the festival for you. I’d certainly agree with point 1. Please excuse any after timing but I had a couple of good handicap winners, one being Spirit River who I was able to wait and wait before betting and get good money on at 18/1 on betfair prior to the off. I think there is enough divide in opinion in the handicaps alot of prices can stand up.

Point 5. Definately! It would seem those prepared for the festival previous and shown their capable can be trusted to do well again.

p.s. Did you get your video archive going in the end?

[carvillshill]

Thanks Tim
I’m changing computer this week and may look at the video thing then. I think I might stick to filling the hard drive on the DVD player with the most importatnt stuff though.

[tbracing]

If you need any help with it just drop me a pm.

[carvillshill]

Irish Grand National Ante Post
2 pts win

Saddler’s Storm

8/1 gen.
I’ve had the Irish National in mind for this horse for a long time and I think and hope his trainer has too despite public pronouncements to the contrary. He’s a typical fast improving God horse in the mould of Dun Doire, Royal County Star and others but in my opinion could be even better as he has no kinks- he jumps and travels well and acts left and right-handed. The way he laughed at a mark of 114 the last day at Navan makes me sure he is easily ahead of even his new rating well over a stone higher and I reckon he ran there to ensure he got into this race. He promises to stay really well and my only worry would be ground faster than good, which seems unlikely. I don’t think the current 8/1 will last and I started quietly backing him today with the non-oddschecker firms. I’ve had plenty on but will be topping up if the 8/1 starts to go as I expect it to in the coming days. I expect him to start at half those odds if he lines up off a low weight. I have 3 or 4 more in mind but their prices should hold up until running plans become clearer.
Fell 7/1 -2 pts.

[Author]

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