Carvills Lays and Plays 2

[carvillshill]

2.40 Leopardstown 2m5f NCh G1
1 pt each-way

Zaarito

9/2 Paddy Power, Coral.
I fully respect Roberto Goldback here as he operated very well over this C and D last time but 9/4 is about right. I’d be against Weapon’s Amnesty today as I think he needs every yard of 3 miles and if I were Charles B I’d be leaving a bit to work on for the big day in March which will suit him much better. Cousin Vinny can’t jump and Leenabane is a bigger danger but may not have the pace of Zaarito.
fell 4/1 -2 pts.
2.10 2m2f NH G1
1 pt each-way

Whodoyouthink

10-1 gen.
Each-way is very attractive here with the dead 8 against the odds-on Dunguib, who should win barring accidents. I didn’t like Fionnegas the last day and think he saves a bit for himself. This horse put up a taking performance on St. Stephen’s day clocking a good time and has a big
chance of a place. My only worry is if he and Saludos get into a battle for the lead.
4th 8/1 -2 pts.
3.10 2m HH
1 pt win

Kilflora

12-1 gen.
Holding him up to the last minute looked the making of this fella at Cork and he will still be competitive off 3lbs higher here. I’ll be looking to trade out at much shorter in-running as he travels well.
unpl 12/1 -1 pt.
RSA Chase ante post
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Weapon’s Amnesty

14/1 hills
I was surprised to see bookies pushing Weapon’s out after this performance which will have left him spot on for the much more suitable test at Cheltenham where the better ground and longer trip will both be in his favour. Press up at Hills’ 14/1.

[carvillshill]

2.50 Fairyhouse
1 pt win

Jagoes Mills

7/4.
This looks a match and I’d far rather be on Jagoes as Whatuthink took a purler of a fall here the last day and jumped a bit stickily at Leopardstown afterwards- his confidence might be shaken.
Won 13/8 + 1.75 pts.

3.20 Fairyhouse
1 pt win

Saddlers Storm

if touches 3.1 in-running on Betfair.
Much more of my betting now is on Betfair where I will often put a "keep bet" up before the off so that if the horse trades at my price I’ll get matched. The downside is that you’re there to be grabbed if he makes a bad mistake or falls but the risk is I feel worth it. The way this horse is ridden makes it very likely our price will be hit- this strategy worked for me on his last run. I can see him winning here and squeezing in at the bottom of something like the Kim Muir.
Won 5/4 traded at 11 on BF +2 pts.

[carvillshill]

2.35 Gowran
1 pt win

Luska Lad

10/1 gen.
The most likely winner here is Jumbo Rio but I wonder if they have half an eye on the Coral Cup and if he’ll be given a hard race today- he possibly needs a bit further now anyway. Luska Lad has ideal conditions- 2 miles right-handed with give and might be given an easy lead. Betfair traders might well be able to trade out in-running if he is. Muirhead doesn’t win much and Noble Prince is another best over further.
won 7/1 +10 pts.
1.30 Newbury
1 pt win

Inchdaly Rock

3/1 g gen.
Punters who made him a short price to win against a high-class field at Cheltenham have short memories allowing him to trade at 3/1 today. I don’t fully believe the Diamond Harry hype.
3rd 11/4 -1 pt.
3.40 Newbury
1 pt win

Fix The Rib

7.4/1 BF
I remain to be convinced that MMs injury just appeared this season- he has now run 3 races under par and has questions to answer. Voy Por Ustedes needs further and this horse will make them all go from the front under AP.
3rd 6/1 -1 pt.
1.35 Gowran Park
1 pt each way

Save My Blushes

4/1 Hills
Consistent, would have been a good second to Secant Star but for he falling and bringing SMB to a standstill at Leopardstown. This track favours front-runners, notably so at the last meeting.
unpl 11/4 -2 pts.

[carvillshill]

Blue Square Gold Cup Haydock Sat
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Coe

12/1 Hills.
Ran with the choke out in the Welsh National and didn’t get home. Loves Haydock and was second in this as a novice last season. If they can get him settled has even better prospects this year though off a higher mark. Sue Smith going OK.
Unpl 7/1 -1.5 pts.
Grand National Ante Post
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Backstage

25/1 Hills
I’m following Mr Seagull in here as his weight looks fair and he’s a definite runner.
4.00 Lingfield
3 pts win

Aviso

9/1 g. Victor Chandler.
I got that feeling in my water two days ago when I saw this horse declared. We’ll know our fate beforehand as if he starts at this price you can tear up your docket but 9/1 is worth the risk.
Unpl 13/2 -3 pts.

[carvillshill]

Supreme Novices Hurdle
1/2 pt each-way

Get Me Out Of Here

14/1 Tote.
I’m keen to take on Dunguib in the opener so JPs strong hint today that his horse would run here is worth heeding albeit to small stakes- I’ll be topping up when NRNB comes in. He’s sure to be rated in the 150s after the Tote Gold Trophy, which would be good enough most years. There’s always the outside chance they might be tempted by the Champion with Dunguib as well.

[carvillshill]

Ante Post Neptune Inv NH
1.5 pts win 1 pt place

Finians Rainbow

10/1 Paddy P
I have thought a lot of this horse since he hammered Sereth at Newbury. He then didn’t get home in bad ground in the Challow- I think he has a decent chance of revenge on Reve De Sivola on better ground.
Sereth wouldn’t have been tuned up today but Finian’s was mighty impressive again regardless. Paddy Power’s reaction to keep him at 10/1 for the 2m5f novice was surprising and I’ve backed him win and place. He also has Rite of Passage to beat but they are two horses of immense potential and there may not be as much between them as the betting suggests and this horse may be a better jumper.

[carvillshill]

Arkle Chase ante post.
1.5 pts win, 1/2 pt place

Sports Line

12/1 gen.
This is one of the days where work got in the way. I’ve been hovering around the 14/1 Sports Line for a while now after giving him extra credit for his narrow defeat in the Irish Arkle when he went off too fast with Take The Breeze and Major Finnegan both of whom were beaten a furlong. I have a busy day today and someone decides to launch a Sports Line plunge and all that’s left is 12/1. That’s still value IMO as there are doubts about some of the market leaders- Captain Cee Bee’s jumping didn’t inspire me the last day and he’d be very old for an Arkle winner at 9, Sizing Europe has a fatal flaw that the Cheltenham hill might well expose again and I’m already on Sommersby, though it’s not ideal to be lining up off such a massive lay off.

[carvillshill]

3.35 Fairyhouse
1.5 pts win

Mont Tresor

5/1 Hills
Fell 3 out over C and D in a stronger race than this when looking as if he’d have given the progressive Seabass a race. This company is less exacting and he’s a good jumper in the main who looks to be finally fulfilling the promise of his useful pointing form.
fell 4/1 -1.5 pts.

[carvillshill]

Champion Bumper Ante Post
1pt win

Bishopsfurze

16/1 gen.
The Mullins battalions are belatedly starting to appear and I was very impressed with this one at Fairyhouse yesterday. Patrick Mullins isn’t my favourite jockey and he seemed to believe he was riding Dancing Brave on this fella giving him a good 15 lengths to find in the straight which he did to win going away. I get the feeling Patrick likes testing these horses’ acceleration, something I would hate were I their trainer or owner but at least we learnt that this is a smart animal who looks well worth his place at Cheltenham. The performance and the ride reminded me strongly of when Patrick rode Cousin Vinny to win at Punchestown before the bumper in 2008. I would prefer him to Day of a Lifetime who looks more of a galloping staying type.

[carvillshill]

8.00 Dundalk
1 pt win

Wikaala

7/1 Ladbrokes
This horse won a charity race at Folkestone last week under Gordon Elliot’s missus and ran well over hurdles at Christmas so might have an edge in fitness on most of these. Well drawn and stable on form.
2nd 6/1 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

3.10 Navan
1 pt win

Instinctive

14/1 gen.
Ran well against a well handicapped horse last time despite forcing a fast pace. Only one obvious rival for the lead today. Dessie Hughes flying.
unpl 14/1 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

3.30 Clonmel
1 pt each way

Becolark

3/1 Paddy Power
I want to take on Quartetto here who looked to hang and jump left the last day and who took a tired bad fall at the last- there must be a question mark as to whether he’ll be seen at his best today. Darby’s Turn is feared but looks a weak finisher. Becolark’s last third to Kempes and Nicanor is looking better now. He’s a bit onepaced but looks a certainty to be in the 3 and could win.
fell 2/1 fav. -2 pts.

3.45 Leop
1 pt each way

Jaffonien

4/1 Ladbrokes
Cadspeed is one of my favourite hounds and always finds a way to lose. Marlay Park has a poor win record as well so I’m chancing that this horse might improve for his first run at Christmas- he was going well when falling here last year.
3rd 10/3 -0.2 pt.

4.40 Clonmel
0.75 pt win, 0.5 pt place

Johnny Gonzalez

14/1 gen.
Has a great record at the track and ran well last time over an inadequate trip.
PU 14/1 -1.25 pts.
3.15 Leop
0.5 pts each way

Prudent Honour

10/1 gen.
Ran a nice race behind Nuvelli at Gowran in his first handicap, the latter wouldn’t be certain to reproduce that run. Consistent and excellent chance of being in the frame at least.
unpl 7/1 -1 pt.

Grand National Ante Post
2 pts win 1 pt place

Arbor Supreme

40/1 Hills
Hills are slow to react to this horses’ excellent run today over a trip that would have been a bare minimum. This will leave him spot on for Aintree.

William Hill Trophy ante post
1 pt win

Exmoor Ranger

16/1 gen.
I’ll be having more on this when NRNB comes in but I’m a bit afraid this price won’t last. This horse was going well in last year’s Jewson when falling and has been highly progressive since. He has a big chance and fits the weight and age stats for this race.

Feb 2010
Staked 29.25
Loss 11 pts.

[Imperial Call]

Cadspeed is one of my favourite hounds and always finds a way to lose.

I’ve made a packet from laying this hound all year too. Pure doghouse material.

[carvillshill]

Coral Cup Ante Post
2 pts win 1 pt place

Sir Harry Ormesher

16/1 Ladbrokes NRNB.
You’re looking for a lightly-raced last time out winner in this race and SHO fits the bill. He would probably have won at Doncaster the day the race was voided over 2m and won well over 2 1/2 latest coming from well back- a run style that suits the Coral Cup admirably. Alan King is quoted as saying that this is his target but NRNB helps if anything goes awry or if the ground goes too soft.If there is a negative it’s that he ran poorly in his only Festival start in the Bumper, but he’s grown up a bit since then. I like horses who have been chasing in this race- remember Ilnamar? I do

William Hill Trophy Ante Post
1 pt each way

Exmoor Ranger

14/1 ladbrokes NRNB.
Time to top up here as the NRNB has come in with Laddies. Theyb are backing The Package who is surely a plot for this but this horse might have a bit more steel.

Neptune Inv. NH Ante Post
Lay 1 pt each way

Finian’s Rainbow

8/1 Betfair.(only if previously backed at 10/1)
In the spirit of full disclosure I’ve gone off this bet- Nicky Henderson has a terrible record in the race and he doesn’t fit the age stats. I’m happy to leave him as a small winner on the day.

[carvillshill]

Jewson NHCh
1 pt win 1/2pt place

China Rock

12-1 Ladbrokes NRNB
Has decent form in pattern novices and doesn’t look badly treated here. Don’t forget his belting run in the Ballymore last year behind Mikael d’Hagunet, Karabak and just behind Diamond Harry…
Bumper
1/2 pt each way

Bishopsfurze

16-1 Hills
The 16/1 looks to be drying up so worth topping up now.
Supreme NH
1/2 pt each way

General Miller

33-1 Paddy P win stake refund if Dunguib wins
Excellent concession, will be backing a couple more when NRNB comes in with them.
4 mile NH Chase
1 pt each way

Saddlers Storm

14-1 Ladbrokes NRNB
Nibbles around for him this morning- this is the only race he’s entered in- stays longer than the mother-in-law. God had Drumconvis second in this last year.

[carvillshill]

Cross Country Chase Ante Post
1 pt each-way

l’Ami

4/1 Hills
Handicap or not, this looks seriously uncompetitive with only 3 credible contenders in the Bolger 2 and Sizing Australia- it’s 20-1 bar 3. As such evens a place for l’Ami is a gift and he has a chance of turning over his stablemate on better terms.

4 mile NH Nov Ch
1 pt win

Synchronised

10/1 Paddy Power NRNB
Jonjo has a good record in this race and this horse showed he stays well when winning in the mud at Chepstow. His last run at a track that wouldn’t have suited had the look of a sighter and he’s had a decent break since.

Coral Cup
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Lake Legend

14/1 Paddy Power NRNB
Another Alan King hopeful for whom "this has been the plan all year" and whose narrow win from Erzen at Christmas reads well. I don’t mind laying out a lot of cash now with NRNB as these horses won’t start at these prices on the day.

[carvillshill]

3.15 Gowran Park
1 pt win

Perce Rock

12/1 gen.
Bit out of left field but this horse goes well fresh right-handed on soft ground and is given one more chance to show he retains ability against some exposed types. I thought Dooney’s Gate was beaten when falling latest and think he’d be better over further.
Fell 10/1 -1 pt.

Jewson NHCh
1 pt win

The Hollinwell

10/1 Boyles NRNB
Will surely start single figures for Ferdy if he lines up here.

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