Carvills Lays and Plays 2

[davidjohnson]

Good old BC. I often think of you carvs when I back one of his off a break. Sweating on Queally though!

[carvillshill]

Cammidge Trophy 2.35 Doncaster
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Pusey Street Lady

best morning price(14/1 gen tonight)
The early Flat season tends to repeat itself and this mare has run well twice before at this meeting. Soft ground is fine. She has a bit to find on ratings, hence her price, but it’s easy to pick holes in some of the market leaders due to ground (Tax Free ) and trip suitability (Redford)
I don’t see the draw having a major impact here and expect them to come middle, unless the first race reveals a big bias.
Unpl 9/1 -1.5 pts.

March
Staked 77 pts
Profit 18pts.

[carvillshill]

Irish National Ante Post
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Alpha Ridge

20/1 Ladbrokes.
Confirmed a runner today by Paul Nolan he looks reasonably likely to stay and isn’t too badly treated. Nibbles around today for Notre Pere suggest he may well run (ground certainly going in his favour) which would mean that the weights wouldn’t rise. he has course form in the Drinmore, where he and Pandorama pulled well clear of a useful field.
PU 8/1 -1.5 pts.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Bluesea Cracker

33/1 Victor C, others.
This is a bit more speculative but again there has been a little money for her on Betfair in the past few days and if she’s declared tomorrow this will look big. She too has course form, a vital commodity in this race and ran a belter in the Leinster National at Naas behind Ballytrim who trades at less than half her price. 9 stone 13 is ideal.
Won 25/1 +37 pts.

The thread moves into profit overall, a fantastic day watching this Cork-trained mare win from our usual possie in the old stone stand near the last fence- small crowd this year though.

[carvillshill]

Power’s Gold Cup
1 pt win

Let Yourself Go

12/1 Boyles, Bet 365.
I love this horse’s bold jumping front-running style and expected him to be around 7 or 8/1 for this. Early quotes of 14/1 have disappeared suggesting he’s an intended runner so it’s worth tucking away the last of the 12s now. I’ll be looking to trade some out in-running as he’s sure to be in front, the only slight doubt is the trip though he won a point first time out. Soft ground is no problem.
PU 6/1 -1 pt. (traded at 2/1 in-running when clear)

[carvillshill]

2,000 Guineas ante post
1 pt win

Awzaan

12/1 Hills
Put up by Pricewise this morning the 12/1 won’t last much longer. Unbeaten at 2 and Mark Johnston in today’s Post thinks the mile will be no problem. Though St. Nicholas Abbey looked special at Doncaster there must be a small doubt if he’ll be as far in front of his contemporaries at 3 and if the Guineas mile will be a sufficient test of stamina for him now.

[carvillshill]

4:05 Fairyhouse
1 pt win

King Of the Refs

best morning price (10/1 Paddy Power tonight)
This horse has been a bit unlucky not to win his last two starts: at Leopardstown he was given too much to do then he hit the front too soon at Gowran, ran around a bit and got chinned. He looks like a thorough stayer and I think tomorrow will belong to the lightweights as the ground will be very testing. Robbie Colgan will ride him out the back and won’t be seen until after the last- I can’t see him going off at more than about 6/1.
unpl 7/1 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

2.50 Fairyhouse
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Cayo Levantando

9/1 Hills
Won well when landing a gamble 2 runs ago, drop back in trip caught him out latest, likely he’s still ahead of his mark with the emphasis firmly on stamina today.
Unpl 11/4f -1.5 pts.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Good Fella

20/1 Ladbrokes
Excellent course form
PU 8/1 -1.5 pts.
Irish National
1/2 pt win

Knock On The Head

100/1 Betfair
Gambled on the day when second in the Galway Plate looking as if further would suit. Hasn’t had condiitons to suit since and trainer has a big association with this race.
fell 25/1 -1/2 pt.
3.20 Fairy/4.20 Cork
1 pt win double

Donna’s Palm, By The Hour

evs, 9/4 W Hill
Two shorties who are slightly bigger than I thought they’d be- I’m not a Mourad fan so see Donna’s having a penalty kick at Fairyhouse and By The Hour just needs to jump safely at Cork to see off some poor rivals.
2nd 11/8, 2nd 7/4 -1 pt.

Topham Chase Ante Post
1.5 pt win 1/2 pt place

Offshore Account

12/1 gen.
I’m still hoping for a miracle that this horse gets into the National having taken three figure prices but he looks certain to miss the cut and end up here. Have a look at his run in last year’s National- he was bang there 2 out before fading having jumped well. I thought he was made for the Beecher this year but he must have had a setback and didn’t travel. He ran a belter in the William Hill and must have a big cahnce in this off 10-7. Charlie Swan is in good form.
Unpl 7/1 fav -2 pts.

[carvillshill]

4:10 Fairyhouse
2 pts win

Tarkari

12-1 Paddy P
There are strong age and weight statistics in this race and this horse fits them best.
5th 10/1 – 2 pts.
Liverpool Hurdle
1 pt each way

Time For Rupert

5/1 Boyles/Paddy P
The proverbial each way bet to nothing and always the chance the fav underperforms.
NR 0
1/2 pt each way

Bouggler

25/1 Hills
May be to his advantage that he missed Cheltenham, and he won here last year. 5/1 the place is huge.
unpl 12/1 -1 pt.
Totesport Bowl
2 pts win

Calgary Bay

20/1 gen.
I thought he ran a belter in the Gold Cup and would much prefer him to Carruthers, who had a hard race there. There must be a major doubt about Imperial Commander repeating his Cheltenham run so soon. Nacarat needs to go right-handed. This is one of the prices of the season for me.
4th 14/1 -2 pts.
1 pt win

What A Friend

10/3 gen.
Again may be in his favour that he comes here fresh- good performance in Ireland last time.
won 5/2 +3.3 pts.

[carvillshill]

Foxhunters Aintree 3.45
1 pt each way

Trust Fund

13/2 Paddy Power paying 1/4 first 4.
Last year’s winner didn’t get the best of runs at Cheltenham and didn’t have a hard race as a result. The winner Baby Run is feared but will need to reproduce a top effort over different fences 3 weeks later, no easy task. there aren’t many runners here so 1/4 first 4 is a gift.
UR 6/1 -2 pts.
1 pt each way

Moncadou

8/1 Paddy Power
Anyone who saw his win around Fontwell wouldn’t have much doubt that he’d handle these big fences.
2nd 16/1 +3 pts (guaranteed odds)
4:20
1 pt win

Safari Journey

8/1 Lads, Corals
Ran OK in the Grand Annual, this track and ground will suit better.
Unpl 8/1 -1 pt.
1/2 pt win

Chaninbar

best morning price (28/1 Tote tonight, will lay me £10 each way)
Not fully exposed over fences and has a chance on his Newbury win 2 runs ago- first time visor also interesting.
Won 20/1 +14 pts.
5:30
1 pt win

Silverhand

best morning price (11-1 tonight)
Was creeping into the Coral Cup when getting hampered. Hasn’t had many chances to tackle the trip over hurdles his Flat form suggests he needs.
unpl 8/1 -1 pt.
Grand National
1 pt win

Hello Bud

50/1 Hills, Corals.
I’m intending to trade out of this bet after the first dozen fences if he’s still there as he’s sure to be prominent under Sam T.D. jumping well (I hope!)
2.35 (Friday)
1.5 pts win

Ogee

5/1 Coral
A previous winner at this Festival he ran really well in the William Hill and this track will suit even better.
unpl 11/4 -1.5 pts.
Melling Chase
1 pt each-way

Forpadytheplasterer

best morning price. (9/2 VC tonight 1/4 first 3)
As I strongly advised his owner Charlie Chawke that this was his race on the way back through Dublin Airport from Cheltenham, I have to back him here! He looks a major improver for a step up in trip and is very consistent.
2nd 4/1 +0.1 pt.
1 pt each way

Kalahari King

4/1 Hills (1/4 1,2,3.)
I was initially a bit against him thinking he wanted faster ground but the memory plays tricks and it’s unlikely to be much worse than when he won the 2 mile novice last year or when he hacked up in a handicap at Doncaster this. He’s also very consisitent and the each way terms are juicy.
Fell 4/1 -2 pts.
Topham Chase 3.45
1/2 pt each way

Always Waining

40/1 gen.
Big price for a horse who ran so well in this last year.
Won 22/1 +25 pts.

[The Ante-Post King]

1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Bluesea Cracker

33/1 Victor C, others.
This is a bit more speculative but again there has been a little money for her on Betfair in the past few days and if she’s declared tomorrow this will look big. She too has course form, a vital commodity in this race and ran a belter in the Leinster National at Naas behind Ballytrim who trades at less than half her price. 9 stone 13 is ideal.
Won 25/1 +37 pts.

Good shout Carv, about time mind,i was beginning to think you were full of S**T! Keep it up!

[carvillshill]

4.55 Aintree
1 pt win

Bob’n You, Carsonstown Boy

20/1,33/1 gen.
Some good weight trends in this race and novices go well.
3rd 11/1, 2nd 16/1 -2 pts.
4.20
1 pt win

Wayward Prince

14/1 available.
I’m a bit worried that Western Leader and Lord Generous might cut each others throats- I have huge respect for Western Leader but this is not a front-runners course. For that reason I was looking for a hold up horse and Ian William’s fits the bill.
won 9/1 + 14 pts.
Saturday 3.25
1.5 pts win

Carlitos

9/1 Hills
Novices do well in this and he’s well thought of at Twisty’s.
PU 13/2 -1.5 pts.
5.00
1 pt win

Magnum Force

best morning price- 14/1 best tonight.
Goes well fresh, at the right end of the weights, trainer in form.
unpl 12/1 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

1.45 Aintree
1 pt each way

Najaf

SP preferably with Ladbrokes (1/4 1,2,3.)
The market looks to be overreacting to his trainer’s fears that he mightn’t recover from Cheltenham. That’s entirely possible but his form is solid, especially his close third in France at this trip in a Grade 1. Peddler’s Cross is solid but there’s just as big a chance he might underperform after his Cheltenham exertions.
3rd 4/1 0
2.50 Aintree
1 pt win

Celestial Halo

BFSP
Most people have sacked him by now but I’m giving him another chance as this race might pan out very well for him. I know I said it isn’t a front-runner’s course but I can see Ruby dictating it and nicking a few lengths between the last two making the rest struggle to get to him- that’s the theory anyway! Nothing else wants to lead as far as I can see though Zaynar might be prominent. Horses who put up big Champion Hurdle performances often bomb out here so 6/1 or so looks too big.
Fell 5/1 -1 pt.
3.25
1 pt win

Seven Is My Number

14/1 guaranteed VC.
Fits the age stats well and is a novice, another positive.
PU 8/1 – 1 pt.
1 pt win

Au Courant

10/1 guaranteed.
Nicky Henderson has a good record in this.
unpl 10/1 -1 pt.
5.00
1 pt win

Black Coffee, Ballybriggan, Dantari and Nearby

all BFSP
Lightweight young horses hold sway here and I’m hoping last year’s result was a one-off.
unpl, unpl, unpl, 4th 20/1 -4 pts.
Grand National result
2 pts win 1 pt place

Arbor Supreme

40/1. Fell 16/1 -3 pts.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Backstage

25/1 BD 25/1 -1.5 pts.
1 pt win

Hello Bud

50/1 5th 20/1 (traded short in-running as predicted) -1 pt.

Aintree
Staked 39 pts
Profit 31.9 pts.

[carvillshill]

Scottish National ante post
1 pt each way

Mobaasher

20/1 Coral,Stan James.
I backed this horse in the 4 miler at Cheltenham and thought he was still going ok when badly hampered by a faller on the final circuit. He’s a funny fish and wouldn’t be the best to overcome adversity so that run can be ignored. He still looks well-in on his classy staying hurdles form and will appreciate the likely good ground. The poorish record of 7 year olds in this is a slight concern but he’s far more experienced than most of that age tackling this contest and if things go his way I can definitely see him involved.
unpl 20/1 -2 pts.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Merigo

25/1 Boyles
Winner of an Eider over this trip and has plenty of good course form. A negative is the ground, which might be too quick but the price more than compensates.
won 18/1 +28.3 pts.

[carvillshill]

Scottish National
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Montero

33/1 Hills, Ladbrokes.
A good staying novice with a preference for good ground he’s only 16 hands but the fences at Ayr aren’t the biggest and this is a fascinating choice of race by his in-form trainer. He’s been off for the Winter but had a couple of pipe-openers over hurdles and should be spot on now.
fell 20/1 -1.5 pts.
1/2 pt each way

Aurora’s Encore

33/1 Paddy Power paying first 5 places.
Comes to life in the Spring and has course form.
fell 20/1 -1 pt.

[carvillshill]

2.45 Ayr
1 pt win

Gloucester

7/1 gen.
Ran better than his finishing position in the County Hurdle and a horse who ran a similar race close to the pace (Dee E Williams) won well off topweight at Aintree.
2nd 6/1 -1 pt.
7.25 Doncaster
1 pt win

Lady Artimisia

7/2 gen.
Marco Botti is worth following with horses he inherits from other trainers and there has been good support for this filly already. Ground and trip look fine.
2nd 7/2 -1 pt.

Champion Chase Punchestown Tuesday
1 pt win

Twist Magic

7/2 Boyles.
Confirmed a runner by PN in the Post, he won this race in ’08 and is far better away from Cheltenham right-handed. There must be a doubt if Forpady will take his chance so soon after Aintree and he’s becoming a bit of a nearly horse anyway. Kalahari King is feared but TM beat him 10 lenghts at Sandown last year and is the fresher horse of the two, KK having endured a fruitless trip to Aintree and a nasty fall. Sizing Europe is a fascinating runner after a huge win in the Arkle and is perhaps the biggest danger- he has to step up again on that form to win this though, and might have been better kept to novice company. The rest don’t look good enough.
refused to race 10/3 -1 pt.
Edit- those kind folk at Boyles are refunding stakes- thanks lads!

[carvillshill]

Champion Novice Hurdle Punchestown Tuesday.
1 pt win 1/2 pt place

Blackstairsmountain

8/1 Paddy Power
This might come a bit soon for General Miller. I wouldn’t have as much between Willie’s two as the bookies do- Blackstairs travelled the better in the Supreme before failing to get up the hill and improved on that on bad ground at Fairyhouse when running all over a decent yardstick in Luska Lad before being mugged after the last. As long as that slog hasn’t bottomed him he’s got every chance here-I’d expect the slightly easier test of this race on better ground to suit admirably and the instructions to be to come very late. I’ll be having more on tomorrow when they all price up but must take a bit of 8/1 in case it doesn’t last.
Won 5/1 +9 pts.

[carvillshill]

Growise Novice Chase Punchestown Tuesday
1 pt win

Saddler’s Storm

10/1 Boyles, VC.
I think it’s significant that God runs him here rather than exploit what still looks a workable handicap mark in something like the Whitbread. He must reckon he can go close here so 10/1 is too big. Good ground is what AJM has always said would suit him best and it was on yielding at Navan that he put up his best performance. He has a bit to find on the bare form there but is highly progressive and can take another big step forward tomorrow. He hadn’t been asked when falling in the Irish National and spared himself a hard race there, jumping some of the fences on the run home at his own speed. Zaarito is classy but error-prone and has to prove he stays, The Midnight Club looks far too short on what he’s done and Jadanli surely won’t enjoy the ground here as much as the bog at Fairyhouse.
Unpl 8/1 -1 pt.

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