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Henry will not go the distance IMO.
I like the Duke because he’s from a family of Lemon Drop Kid and A.P. Indy, so he is bound to at least appreciate American racing (not particularly the surface).
I read somewhere, however, that the Pro-Ride is 87% dirt anyway …
You must be wearing earplugs if you haven’t heard Gosden hype up RP. It’s quite inviting.
Much as I would like things to be otherwse, I don’t see any of the European raiders for this race being in with any sort of a chance.
Two of them won’t stay the 10f, all three are unproven on the surface (although Raven’s Pass may take to it), and I suspect all three are over the top.
It’s hard to look beyond Curlin, Go Between and Tiago. The latter looks an ew tempter at 25/1.
Much as I would like things to be otherwse, I don’t see any of the European raiders for this race being in with any sort of a chance.
Two of them won’t stay the 10f, all three are unproven on the surface (although Raven’s Pass may take to it), and I suspect all three are over the top.
It’s hard to look beyond Curlin, Go Between and Tiago. The latter looks an ew tempter at 25/1.
Why are all the Europeans supposidly over the top yet the likes of Curlin are assumed to have not? Curlin has been running (and travelling) since Dubai this year and his two most recent efforts have been some way below his best. He is racing on a surface connections a few weeks ago said they hated…yet somehow he is bombproof? He is a deserved favourite but there is absolutely no reason why the Europeans should be talked down as much as many are.
I was reading a thread on and American site and they were saying how different Curlin has looked since he came off the steroids and how he hasn’t been running as well
A point made by Nick Mordin recently. http://www.nickmordin.com/usa.htm
That was what I read, sorry, getting it mixed up …. the american site did, however talk about the race that Big Brown was pulled up in [they seemed to think it was steroid withdrawal] and that they are turning against the use of steroids in America because it can cause sterility..also said that Storm Cat has got offset knees which he is passing on to his progeny and that Raise a Native and Mr Prospector produce unsound horses..was really interesting, although was obviously just a personal opinion.
Does anyone know where you can watch all these races live online? I managed last year but can’t remember for the life of me where i found it!
This could be down to whether you believe Curlin is or is not the wonder horse they say he is. He looks the part against those at the other side of the water but is he better than DOM and co?
If DOM hadn’t run against Zarkava he would have many followers here who will no doubt be sick as parrots if he win this.
I can see him running very well but the chances are this will turn out to be more suited to the speed horses.
I wondered about Henrythenavigator and whether he would get this trip or not so I looked back at his race against Raven’s Pass.
What suprised me was that if any of the two are going to get the trip Raven’s looks the most likely.
Perhaps not on breeding but at Ascot he was travelling so well a furlong out he looked as if he could have gone another 2 furlongs without coming off the bridle. Of course he had to quicken up at that point to fight off Henry but he did look to be travelling exceptionally well beforehand. He may just see out this trip.
No one can put them to sleep like Frankie so I am going to take the gamble and back him EW at SP.
Perhaps Curling is a league above these I really don’t know but if he gets into a sprint with Raven’s he”ll have to be everything they claim he is.
1. Raven’s Pass 2. Curlin. 3 Duke of Marmalade
The condition of RP, the way he paraded and the calmness he personified at Ascot last time, makes it very hard for me to back against the horse .
This horse fills me with confidence. He’s bombproof and I really think he’s good enough with it.Curlin for me.
He hasn’t been overly impressive in his last two starts, but I think Asmussen will have him spot-on for this.
The biggest threat may come from the european challengers. The Duke, Henry and Raven’s Pass have all been well campaigned. They need to prove themselves on the surface and the 3YO pair are not certain to stay.
I think Raven’s Pass will prove the strongest of the three. He proved his wellbeing last time out when beating old rival Henrythenavigator. His style of running and preference for fast conditions are a huge plus and he hasn’t been stopping over a mile.
I’ve always said that Duke Of Marmalade is made for the race. However, he looked OTT in the Arc and there is no guaranteed pace in the race, which will seriously count against him. If back to his best, he’ll be very hard to keep out of the frame.
Henry has the assistance of John Velasquez and that is a huge positive. The step up in trip shouldn’t be a problem, neither will the surface. I just doubt whether he has the power to maintain a challenge down the straight. Raven’s Pass had far too much for him at Ascot (pulling away again at he finish) and he too may be feeling the effects of a hard campaign.
I like Casino Drive. He’s a big, imposing horse and there’s more to come. He’s already won on two continents, which is incredible for a horse with such limited experience. I expect him to stay-on down the straight. Proven on the surface.
Curlin has nothing to prove and if he’s back to his best then there’s only one winner. Don’t worry about his last two starts, this is the race he’s been trained for.
I’ll take Curlin to grind out a victory from Raven’s Pass and Casino Drive.
I’ve rated Tiago on top after close analysis.
I shoot my mouth off way too much without substance, and hence resulted in the "Curlin = penalty kick" declaration comment.
In all seriousness, Curlin has not recorded numbers which put him pickets ahead, and he is on debut over the synthetics.
To add to the intrigue, Asmussen’s record over synthetics first go is very poor, and I don’t think you can get away with a slightly lower performance than the top standard Curlin can bring.
If he does bring his A-game and thrives on the syntho, queue up – but he is not backable at 7-5.
Not a race to bet on but if I were I’d be on Raven’s Pass. Henry looks less likely of the pair (with RP) to improve for teh step up in distance,. The Duke is tricky to figure out and I have a niggling feeling that his Arc run was an indication that he’s either not as good as we thought or has shot his bolt for the season. However, I am in no doubt that Mr. O’Brien is more than capable of rendering that last sentence nonsensical. Looking forward to it very much.
Have done Tiago ew, if there’s such a thing as value, he’s it.
What he’s doing at 25/1 I can’t imagine.
He’s fit, fresh and still improving, his warm-up peformance promises a lot more to come.
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Casino Drive for me.
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