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Interesting to see Frankel declared for a Conditions event over 7f. Hot little race as well with Farhh in there. I do hope they’re not trying to see if Frankel has the speed for a Guineas…it’s clearly a race Godolphin like. Librettist and Al Zir both won in recent years securing decent RPRs in the process. Might have a couple of quid on him for the Guineas.
Anyway I reckon my Toolain 2000 Guineas is dead already. Looking at the Irish 2000 entries, he’s not entered yet Jarvis has 3 other entrants that are on my shortlist and all of them are unraced.
I’d also say Zain Shamardal is gone as well. An 8f debut is not exactly ideal for a Guineas hope and he’s not entered for the Irish 2000 while Titus Mills from the same stable is.
Cheers Zarkava
Just a quick Point. If you have a maiden winner( my example being the winner of the 2.00 at Doncaster) He was a may foal i think on debut but beat a favorite that had a few months growth etc on him. Does that mean the maiden race was prob not the best or was a very decent performance on debut with the winner and the form should not be turned around?
Yup, Picture Editor had about 3 weeks on Nathaniel.
Could be simply down to speed (sired by Dansili and Galileo respectively, obviously the former was placed multiple times in Group 1s over a mile and has sired some speedy types ie. Delegator), could be down to how precocious he is, could be down to him being simply in a different league quality wise.
Genius Beast eliminated from the Derby reckoning after his 2nd defeat in a maiden. Tazahum is also declared for a maiden at Kempton tonight and as such is eliminated. Picture Editor is a mid-May foal and holds no big race entries, so not interested in his Derby prospects in the slightest.
Disappointing turn out for the Champagne, had been expecting a lot more.
Boyles, Stan James and Hills have decided Frankel’s worthy of being cut in the Derby market to 16 and 20/1. Why? Because he’s running tomorrow in a Conditions event…so so pathetic.
Long Live The King’s in there at 25s for finishing 2nd in a maiden, yet Picture Editor won a decent maiden at Doncaster and is 33s. The odds-compilers must know some good dealers.
Happy in a way i got 33/1 for Frankel with ladbrokes got a quote from them after his maiden win
And Zarkava what you think of the chances of Helleborine winning 1000 guineas next year
Darren – Nathaniel is a late-April Galileo foal. The late-April bit is bad enough, but personally I’m trying to steer clear of Galileo colts in the Derby. Bar New Approach in a truly horrendous Derby, only At First Sight has been placed from 12 other runners. Compared to how Montjeu’s progeny have fared in the Derby in a similar time, Galileo doesn’t look good. There’s plenty of evidence to shoot me down with, but Galileo in my eyes seems to sire either 10f specialists (two of whom just about had/has the pace for a mile) or stayers (one of whom just about had the pace for 12f).
Helleborine, again a very late foal (May 19th). Doesn’t affect the fillies quite as much but still a big concern for me. I relentlessly opposed Rainbow View all winter for both Classics purely down to her foaling date (late May). Her pedigree’s also a slight concern, Observatory’s not exactly been a brilliant sire.
Why can’t you just read my original posts?
Sorry Zarkava i did not see it at 1st
And bookies will cut Frankel today like they did last year with Al Zir when he won a 3 runner race.I think it is not right
Well there we go. Few can argue that that wasn’t a performance worthy of making him 8/1 favourite for the Derby…
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8/1 is profit, don’t stop lumping!
Mr Wilson
Am more happy with 33/1 with Ladbrokes that i got after his maiden.I lump on more on the 20s at Ladbrokes rather than the 8/1
Janood finished last but one, rules him out of contention for the Guineas. Saamidd I thought was extremely impressive in the Champagne, but it’ll take a brave sod to back him ante-post. There’s been no worse stable for the early-season UK Classics recently than Godolphin. You have to go back to 2004 to find his last placed horse and 1999 for his last winner.
Saamidd’s breeding is also not perfect and doesn’t tie in with other winners. His sire is Street Cry, winner of the 10f Dubai World Cup, whereas 15 of the last 16 Guineas winners were sired by horse who’d won a Group or Grade 1 between 5 and 8 furlongs.
There are still 8 or so unraced Dewhurst entrants I’m interested in for the Guineas and none more so than Garde Cotiere. If he’s as good as his entries and breeding suggest, he’ll win the Guineas.
Nothing really happened in terms of the Derby. Census is down to run in a Ffos Las maiden tomorrow and provided he’s not a non-runner that’ll rule him out of the Derby reckoning.
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Stuff the breeding Zark he’s a horse and a half that one.
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Stuff the breeding Zark he’s a horse and a half that one.
Agreed, he’s the 2nd coming of Harbinger – you just can’t write these sort of things.
Stuff the breeding Zark he’s a horse and a half that one.
Totally agree, he’s been extremely impressive so far. But let’s get some perspective. He’s beaten Approve, who’s a decent yardstick, but exactly that – only decent. Purely from a form perspective King Torus is a couple of lengths in front of him and is a lot pacier on breeding.
I also think that we’ve seen a colossal number of 2yos over the past 15 years that everyone has said is the next Pegasus and not a single one has shown that mythical talent on the first Saturday in May at Newmarket. Shall we go through some of them?
Celtic Swing, New Approach, Three Valleys, Canford Cliffs, Alhaarth, Xaar, Mujahid, Giant’s Causeway, Distant Music, Minardi, Tobougg, Dubawi, St. Nick.
I mean look at the stable form in the early season Classics. Cataclysmically bad.
And there are plenty of very unexposed 2yos that haven’t played their hands yet. I may have been a little too quick to dismiss Native Khan’s chances, while Meehan obviously thinks the world of Titus Mills. Add in the likes of Roman Eagle, Head Space, the unraced Garde Cotiere, etc and Saamidd’s chances really don’t start to look worthy of 12/1 quotes.
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Natve Khan is my other horse to follow but Ed Dunlop isn’t daft he’ll send him to Donny for the Racing Post.
What I liked about Saamidd is he was running a bit free early on and it would have been better if Frankie could have covered him up. Instead he took him out to the middle of the course and let him see masses of daylight. Lots young horses in that situation would have been looking around or pulling their jockeys arms out or idling but this horse settled brilliantly well and went into cruise control.
He did ide a bit in front but that’s ok. What Frankie now knows is he can ride him from anywhere in the Guineas and keep out of trouble.
This horse absolutely oozes class and looks abit nipier than Frankel to me and for that reason I’d say the 10/1 available is way too big. But hey! don’t tell anyone I haven’t backed him yet.
One things for sure if there’s a better horse than these two going around it’s hiding itself very well,
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