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I can’t get quite get a handle on any of the 2yr olds so far as regards Classic’s. Pathfork looks top Class but has American owners and Zoffany looked okay but obviously is not regarded as a 2000 Guineas horse hence the price.
Coolmore talent won’t be shown until later this season which is no surprise after the winter as will Oxx’s. Bolger
(cant understand his campaigning of horses). Their is 6 regally bred Montjeu’s still to come out and plenty of Galileo’s and Kingmambo’s(Ballydoyle). IDK its strange year so far .Racing Post Trophy is bound to be a SKY+ race with the best coming out later in the season. The 2000 Guineas could be 6/1 the field come the day
Question for you guys are there any unraced 2yos you waiting to see my horse is Amen has i backed him at 50/1 to win derby.
Darren, my Derby 2011 shortlist contains 110 names.
Until now 4 of them have run.
Even half the horses on my Guineas shortlist are unraced as yet, it’s still incredibly early in the 2yo season. The St Leger meeting is where things will start to pick up the pace.
Malthouse’s dire effort yesterday at Newmarket rules him out of the 2000 Guineas, while Fulgur put in a decent 2nd in a maiden, staying on very nicely, keeping him on the Derby shortlist.
Utley had been ruled out on breeding but his debut 5th rules him out again.
Very surprised to see Fulgur only given a RPR of 76 for his debut on Friday. Looked a decent effort to me but obviously not. Ruled out.
Plattsburgh also ruled out for Al Zarooni owing to him making his debut at Bath.
God this is incredibly tedious. Baby Jock ruled out owing to a 14th on his debut, while Unex El Greco should be ruled out tomorrow afternoon (has an engagement at Leicester). Other than that, not a single unnamed horse now has a name according to the Racing Post and as far as I can see only Long Live The King of O’Brien’s has an entry for the weekend, which to be honest I couldn’t care less about. A Galileo Ballydoyle colt without a Dewhurst entry, brilliant.
Urgh.
Darej is in the running for the Guineas and holds a couple of entries on the weekend – a Conditions and a Nursery.
Titus Mills of Meehan’s has the same Conditions entry.
Mantoba of Meehan’s carries a host of entries on the weekend (was a non-runner in a Newmarket maiden on Friday), and Zain Shamardal, again a Meehan juvenile, has an entry on the weekend too.
The weekend after next should reveal a lot. A couple of decent maidens at Leopardstown and Doncaster, a couple of Conditions events plus a couple of fairly prestigious 7f Group races.
A further note. Just noticed Havant has been quoted at 20/1 for the Oaks so I had a quick gander at her profile.
An early May foal – big negative. Not a deal-breaker, but certainly not something I’d want to see.
Also she’s by Halling. Halling is a great sire but he’s a very consistent, very unexciting sire. He sires nothing but Group 2 and 3 horses. You’ll all point to Cutlass Bay but he’s never beaten anything of worth.
There have also only been 2 Oaks runners sired by Halling since 1995. Something Exciting was 2nd in what was probably the worst Oaks this century so far and Foodbroker Fancy finished 10th in 2001.
Peter Martins had a slight setback and misses the Champagne. Extremely disappointing news. Hope he makes it onto the track again this season. He’d need to be very special to win the Guineas after only 1 2yo run.
I wanted to post something last night but didn’t get the chance. I wanted to say that if Ballydoyle have a Derby horse, then Long Live The King has got a good chance of being it. He ran a decent enough race today, finishing 2nd behind A Word Apart, although it remains to be seen how good the RPR man will rate it.
Nothing else happened today. I see that Zain Shamardal and Mantoba both ran at Salisbury on Thursday in a 1m novice affair, finishing 3rd and 4th respectively (Mantoba beaten 17L by the former). Given their careers are starting off over a mile, I’d suggest they’re not seen as Guineas possibilities.
Eagerly awaiting the debut of Garde Cotiere.
Well a slight oversight from myself. Godolphin had absolutely no initial Dewhurst entries, also no initial Racing Post Trophy or Middle Park entries, so when they supplement one of their horses it’d probably be wise to sit up and take notice.
Janood’s been supplemented for the National Stakes, so I’ve had £4 on him for the Guineas at average odds of 82.5.
The Champagne entries are out and I see only 2 potential Guineas winners on the trends; Saamidd and Toolain. I’m very wary of wide-margin maiden winners, especially if they’re roughly the 18/1 6th favourite. Pathfork’s done infinitely more yet is only 4 points shorter in the betting.
Toolain was extremely unlucky when being beaten by Ecliptic on his debut and that marks him down as a very decent animal since Ecliptic’s put in some great runs with excellent form. The last 2 British winners of the Guineas ran in the Champagne as a 2yo, and actually 3 Guineas winners in the 00s overall. They were all beaten at Doncaster, so defeat on Saturday wouldn’t be a negative at all. I’ve therefore had £4 on him at 50s.
Another potential Ballydoyle Derby horse runs on Saturday. Roderic O’Connor’s down in the National Stakes. While he’s eliminated on my trends by 3 counts, 2 of the counts are my personal views – the fact that he’s by Galileo and he’s a very early April foal. Ballydoyle really do look short on potential Classic hopes for next year but he could be one of them.
A few entries over the next 5 days – Titus Mills runs today in a Listed race at Goodwood. Defeat and he’s out of the Guineas reckoning, Genius Beast’s confirmed for the maiden Coordinated Cut won last year, Tazahum of Stoute’s has a 48-hr dec for a Kempton maiden, Census of Hannon’s has a Ffos Las maiden entry for Sunday and of course we have the Champagne and National Stakes on Saturday – Toolain, Saamidd and Janood the main 3 horses I’ll be watching.
What you think of Nathaniel who is in that same maiden race tomorrow
And when Amen races no idea yet i see being a derby horse for next year
And what you think of Helleiborine to
Zarkava….forgive my stupidity.
But when you look at Foaling date’s. What exactly is the principle you work on. I remember you told me before i forget
Personally i like the look of the entries/Pedigree’s for Seville and also Pirate Chest but that just my opinion
Yeah I had a look at those entries yesterday, Wallace. Was hoping they’d name some unnamed colts on my Derby list but alas no.
The foaling date is not dissimilar to a child going to school. Take the 2000 Guineas for example, run on May 1st. A May 1st foal is going to be exactly 3 years old, whereas a February 1st foal is going to be exactly 3 years 3 months old, ‘10%’ older and more developed.
Darren – Nathaniel is a late-April Galileo foal. The late-April bit is bad enough, but personally I’m trying to steer clear of Galileo colts in the Derby. Bar New Approach in a truly horrendous Derby, only At First Sight has been placed from 12 other runners. Compared to how Montjeu’s progeny have fared in the Derby in a similar time, Galileo doesn’t look good. There’s plenty of evidence to shoot me down with, but Galileo in my eyes seems to sire either 10f specialists (two of whom just about had/has the pace for a mile) or stayers (one of whom just about had the pace for 12f).
Helleborine, again a very late foal (May 19th). Doesn’t affect the fillies quite as much but still a big concern for me. I relentlessly opposed Rainbow View all winter for both Classics purely down to her foaling date (late May). Her pedigree’s also a slight concern, Observatory’s not exactly been a brilliant sire.
Btw, Noseda says Peter Martins is out for the season. Huge shame. That sort of 2yo career is fine for the Derby but it’s a huge ask to win the Guineas after only 1 juvenile start. He’s eliminated from my shortlist.
Personally i like the look of the entries/Pedigree’s for Seville and also Pirate Chest but that just my opinion
Pirate Chest has exceptional breeding but he’s a mid-May foal, will need to be a freak to be involved in the main Classics next year. I would question why he doesn’t have a Dewhurst entry though.
Seville is a much more credible candidate and one I am keeping an eye on, but still, he’s by Galileo, a huge personal negative, and an early/mid-April foal.
(cant understand his campaigning of horses). Their is 6 regally bred Montjeu’s still to come out and plenty of Galileo’s and Kingmambo’s(Ballydoyle). IDK its strange year so far 
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