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Who knows. I imagine Guineas. Jean Luc Lagadere horses are normally speedsters.
Betfair have added all my horses to their Guineas and Derby markets! Thanks guys! 40s already up for Garde Cotiere to win the Guineas but waiting on a price for the Derby. Would be nice to get 80s before he debuts…
Well a few things running tomorrow. Frankel obviously runs at Ascot. Should win easily. Long Live The King runs again, this time at Gowran Park. Again, he should really win comfortably. Seville debuts in the 2nd division of the maiden – he’s not on my shortlist but I did have an eye on him.
From the perspective of the Guineas, Mantoba and Zain Shamardal have a couple of entries, although the likelihood is that they’re nowhere near good enough. Titus Mills is also down to run in the Tattersalls (spoke briefly to Brian Meehan at Newbury last Friday and he said Tatts or Dewhurst so slight chance he might be diverted) and Roderic O’Connor of O’Brien’s is also entered.
And finally Casamento’s in the Beresford on Sunday. Would need to be supplemented for either the Dewhurst or RP Trophy afterwards if connections felt he were good enough. Certainly a Guineas candidate – despite people thinking that we have Pegasus and his twin brother so far, I’m still not sold at all on that idea and am looking around for a different Guineas prospect and Casamento’s certainly my idea of it right now.
Garde Cotiere as you all know is a horse I’m very much looking forward to. Both Makfi and Footstepsinthesand had their racecourse debuts after this stage of the season and went on to win the Guineas, but it’s a slight concern for me still. However 85s is up there on Betfair now for the Guineas and maybe now I’ll even be able to get a bit of 100s before Tuesday…
Frankel was devastatingly impressive, he really was. Possibly he’s a freak, but then again, did he beat much? Demolished a fairly exposed 2yo but it was about as easy as it could’ve been.
If anything, it was too good. I fully expect him to record a RPR of 122 or higher and if he does, he’ll have all the following against him – Celtic Swing, New Approach, St Nicholas Abbey, Dubawi, Tobougg, Mujahid, Xaar and Alhaarth. All record a RPR of 122+ as a 2yo and were consequently beaten in the 2000 Guineas.
Another thing I worry about with Frankel is the breeding. He could easily fall between the 2 Classic distances. Not quick enough for a mile but a non-stayer of 12 furlongs.
Friday entries are out – again Garde Cotiere’s entered for a 7f maiden at Newmarket, Ryan Moore booked to ride again. Canna of Barry Hills also has an entry. Nothing too exciting entered from the 2000 Guineas perspective.
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Comparing him to Sea the Stars you would have to say he’s the more impressive but that unfortnately as Zarkava points out can count against you.
However Frankel is his own man and there’s nothing to say he won’t progress like any normal horse.
Doubt very much if his speed will all of a sudden disappear and the mile trip won’t be a problem.
This horse looks that good I would expect the 2000 Guineas to be nothing more than a nice pipe opener for the Derby
Totally agree. I’m just slightly saddened that possibly he’ll just be isolated to the 10f division. Cecil seemed very downbeat on his chances of staying 12 – he was saying that the dam was very fast, but I wouldn’t only say that. Plenty of Galileos are out and out stayers, but plenty of them don’t stay too.
Just going through the 2yo ante-post fall-out.
White Moonstone interests me a lot for the Guineas, but not for the Oaks. Oaks winners tend to be very unexposed as 2yos – 10 of the last 16 winners had 3 or fewer starts as a juvenile. Snow Fairy and Casual Look looked fairly exposed as 2yos, Reams of Verse had 4 starts for Cecil and the other 3 were typical Aidan O’Brien fillies, improving several pounds every start.
Another interesting thing – like the Guineas, highly rated 2yos aren’t ideal. It’s a small sample I know, but 12 109+ RPR rated 2yos have run in the Oaks and only Alexandrova won – not only that, but the other 11 were all unplaced. Stamina shouldn’t be an issue being by Dynaformer.
I can’t see anything that could rule her out of the 1000 Guineas reckoning and certainly she’ll be a solid trends pick.
Together got fairly close but I think that’s down to White Moonstone’s laziness more than anything else. It does make Misty For Me fairly interesting in terms of the Guineas though.
Frankel is now impossible to back for either Classic. He is on my Derby shortlist and I am a bit disappointed I’m not in possession of a 33/1 slip for the Derby given the class he’s shown, but at the same time I really doubt he’ll get the Derby trip.
Edit – rather than posting again I’ll just add to this post.
A few other juveniles have maiden entries this week – Albert Bridge and Canna as you’ve already heard, but also Muqtarrib for Tregoning and Midsummer Fair for Al Zarooni.
Mariner’s Lodge has also been given a RPR of just 75 for his debut, a number nowhere near what’s required of a prospective Derby winner.
I thought the Oxx horse is the one to take out of the race looks promosing
Also a David Watchman 2yo is running tomorrow won a listed race on debut at 25/1.Could be a oaks horse next year.
How a teaser stallion got a "promotion" thanks to a little undefeated 2yo gelding. http://www.star-telegram.com/2010/09/23 … ne-go.html
Aces N Kings has several options for where he’ll aim for as a sophomore, but the Derby trail is clearly at the top of the list. I wish him luck.
Took 25/1 this afternoon about Casamento winning both the Beresford and the Guineas. He’ll now go into next year as a very likeable trends pick.
Well following on from the above post I read Tom Segal’s column in the Weekender about Casamento and was very happy to see his upbeat words. Personally I didn’t think it was too impressive but what do I know.
Right, little 2-year-old update.
Albert Bridge ran today at Salisbury – first negative. The second negative is that he finished about 7th. Gone from Derby consideration. Zain Shamardal was trying to break his duck after his promising 3rd on his debut but could only manage the same position. He’s gone from Guineas consideration.
Garde Cotiere is declared for the Newmarket 7f maiden on Friday – Ryan Moore booked. Can’t wait to see him in action. Actually read a little thing about him on the Sporting Life, saying that connections rate him as a Group-class horse and are expecting a very bold show on his debut. I’ve got him at 150s for the Guineas but unfortunately missed the 160s. Well done to that man. Canna of Barry Hills is also down to run in the same maiden.
I decided Mariner’s Lodge debut of RPR76 was just too bad so I’ve taken him off my list. Dildar of Royer-Dupre too. 6th on his debut at Saint Cloud.
Muqtarrib holds entries for Brian Meehan too.
Humphrey Bogart, trained by Aidan O’Brien, has had his name changed to Last Crusade. No idea why. He held entries for this week but not anymore.
A couple of interesting horses down to run in Group 1s over the weekend though.
Treasury Devil, who I thought would run in the Racing Post Trophy or Grand Criterium next over a mile, is down to run over 7f in the Jean Luc Lagadere. I very much hope he doesn’t run because if he does, that means he’s more speed than stamina and therefore more of a Guineas prospect. To be fair his stamina is more speed than stamina and the Derby trip has a huge huge question mark hanging over it. His breeding isn’t fast enough however to qualify him for a Guineas prospect. Bernardini didn’t win any Grade 1s between 5 and 8f, only over 9 and 10f.
Titus Mills is still on my Guineas shortlist by the skin of his teeth. I don’t like April and May foals in Classics and I paid for my harshness when Sea The Stars won at HQ. Titus Mills is an April 7th foal and I just have to forgive him the 1 week. Fallon’s down to ride but he doesn’t say much about the horse in the Weekender.
And actually if he’s not to be the main Guineas horse on my shortlist, then I have no idea who to follow. Only 8 names are on my shortlist – Ansaab, Kota Sas, Raahin, Raymbek Batyr & Unex Dali, all of whom are unraced. Garde Cotiere is too but he’ll be running in 2 days. Titus Mills and Toolain are the other 2. It could well be that the Guineas winner again wasn’t initally entered in the Dewhurst a la Makfi. Maybe the Guineas winner is actually Casamento.
Edit – Down to 93 names now on my Derby shortlist. I’ve separated them into groups of 47 and 46. The first 47 are the ones I’m concentrating on – horses like Garde Cotiere, Masked Marvel, Treasury Devil and Suhaili. The second group of 46 are made up of Royer-Dupre horses without Irish Derby entries, Godolphin/Sheikh Mohammed colts that aren’t listed as being in training, Ballydoyle colts that don’t hold Dewhurst entries, Galileo’s offspring (Frankel in that group) and the unattractive trainers such as Amanda Perrett, Tate and Muir. They’re the ones I’m not fussed about and hardly bothering about.
Looks a very good crop this year so far.
Plenty of talent at the Top end and especially in the colts look some monsters up their.
I can see the season being dominated by the names we are most familar with next season
Frankel
Pathfork
CasementoI was talking to a lad from Mick Halford’s and he told me that Casamento hated the tacky ground on Sunday and that Smullen reckoned he was up there with the best 2yos he’s ever sat on.
Surely the Doncaster race is at his mercy if Frankel and the Godolphin horse go to Newmarket and Pathfork goes to the Breeders Cup. My concern is if he’s supplemented and then wins the Racing Post, the Sheikh won’t be able to resist sending him to Godolphin, especially if Frankel annihilates Saamid in the Dewhurst.
Funny about Sea the Stars he was never VERY impressive .He just beat everything that was thrown at him.I thought that St Nicholas Abbey was very impressive last year in the Racing Post trophy. But he is now yesterdays horse.Being Very Impressive alone is only the start.It can be good. It can mean nothing.
Well what a horrible, horrible disappointment. Garde Cotiere’s 8th on debut eliminates him from both Classics. I was stunned to hear he wasn’t even in the top 3. Canna ironically ran on for 4th but recorded a RPR of just 75 and Michael Hills preferred White Snow or whatever he was called.
So again we’re back to this strange position, whereby just 3 of the 27 named colts in my first Group on the shortlist have run. Masked Marvel looks to be the biggest contender from that lot.
I’m not sure what’s going on with Titus Mills. Meehan told me he’d be going for the Tatts or the Dewhurst, then had a Jean-Luc entry and now he’s been withdrawn. Unless they fancy taking on Frankel. And Saamidd. And Dream Ahead. Then I don’t know what to think.
Frustrating to see Treasury Devil down to run in the Jean Luc. I’d hoped he’d wait for the RP Trophy or Grand Criterium, both Group 1s over a mile.
Mick Halford will supplement Casamento for the RP at Doncaster if he works well this week.
Pathfork will be aimed at the BC Juvenile.
It seems like both these horses are being forgotten about with all the hype surrounding the Dewhurst.
Hello Zarkava,
this is an excellent thread.
I would appreciate your view on the liklihood of Maxios taking up his Derby entry. I read on Mordin’s site that this is his only major entry.
Given his breeding, the Derby distance is likely to suit him much better than the Jockey Club distance.
I acknowledge he is French based but his trainer is English.
What do you think ?
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