- This topic has 167 replies, 22 voices, and was last updated 14 years, 9 months ago by
.
- Posts
If he goes for Racing Post he won’t win the guineas next year. having backed him for the race i have.Dewhurst it has to be
Well this is a bit better. I’ve managed to get about 5 more names from the unraced colts on my shortlist and 6 of the 101 have entries at some point this week – Masked Marvel’s the most interesting in my view. Treasury Devil also has a couple of entries on the weekend – he could be a dark horse maybe.
A shame the Mill Reef hasn’t attracted some higher profile names – was hoping to be able to eliminate a couple of fairly unexposed types, but it’ll go down as another negative for Strong Suit. He really has no chance at Newmarket next year.
Frankel’s down to 14/1 for the Derby. Who’s taking these farcical prices…
Edit – Amen and Seville both hold entries for the same maiden as Long Live The King at Listowel.
- Total Posts 17716
Me, I can’t stop lumping – 15% of every winning bet now until end of season is going on backing Frankel for Derby.
A shame the Mill Reef hasn’t attracted some higher profile names…….but it’ll go down as another negative for Strong Suit. He really has no chance at Newmarket next year.
What a truly ridiculous statement.
What a truly ridiculous statement.
Agreed – all these stats (picked and ignored as seen fit) used as a final decider of a race months in advance, particularly for a two year old is indeed ridiculous.
A great day for 2yos, and part of me wonders if we haven’t seen the 2011 Derby winner today.
Treasury Devil ticks absolutely all the boxes so far, he’s done nothing wrong. He’s rated highly, has a high price tag and so far he’s going the right way about showing he’s worth every dollar. 33/1 for the Derby is quite insulting.
Masked Marvel was a 2yo I highlighted earlier in the week as the debutant I was most looking forward to this week and he delivered in decent style. He certainly wasn’t the most impressive debutante you’ll ever see, but he did the job well enough. He’s also one of only 3 2yos on my Derby shortlist to have been given 5 stars by Steve Taplin in his 2 year olds of 2010 book. The other 2 are Suhaili of Michael Jarvis and Trade Commissioner, also of Gosden’s. 40/1 is a fair price with Coral and I’ll been snaffling up some of that and the 33/1 for Treasury Devil tomorrow.
Coastal Bequest finished way down the field in a Yarmouth maiden, cross him off the Derby shortlist.
Unex Dali finished 3rd in the same maiden. He’s on the Guineas shortlist.
Only 1 2yo to be interested in tomorrow – Seelo, again one of Gosden’s. Nothing too exciting mind you, just another Yarmouth maiden. Provided he runs he’s out of the reckoning.
Masked Marvel;
15Sep10 Sandown ( 8 Gd )
He looked well in the paddock and was the least forward of the group. He has only ever had one target; the Derby. He`s a nice horse and we`re very pleased with him. It depends on what Mr Gosden says and how he comes out of the race but we`d like to run again. Williamsaid he felt like a proper horse but we`re not going too get carried away with a maiden win. – Jeremy Brummitt, owner’s representative
Treasury Devil;
15Sep10 Sandown ( 7 Gd )
We always thought well of him and his mother was a Group 1 winner. We very rarely make the decision [to keep colts] and they turn out like this. We always value them and if they don`t make the value then we take them home. It`s very exciting and it`s going to be a long winter. – Madeleine Lloyd-WebberHe and Treasury Devil both earnt the comment ‘quickened’ today as well. Of the last 8 Derby winners, half ‘quickened’ and the other half finished 1st or 2nd in the 2000 Guineas.
- Total Posts 17716
Unex Dali was given a very, very soft ride by Darryl Holland at Yarmouth – challenging the better-fancied, better-backed stablemate didn’t appear to be an option.
He looks a decent sort and is likely a good deal better than we saw yesterday.
Incidentally, how does Masked Marvel compare to Unex El Greco?
In terms of the Derby, Unex El Greco’s eliminated on 2 fronts. Debut at Leceister, a non-Group 1 track and the stamina index figure for his sire, HRE, will, one assumes, be a lot lower than 8.5.
On another level, he lacks any big race entries (bar the Derby). Agiaal, Masked Marvel, Seelo and Treasury Devil, all Gosden’s horses, hold at least a Racing Post Trophy entry.
- Total Posts 17716
Our Andy spotted a cracking filly of John Oxx’s called Alazan who ran a couple of days ago. Well worth a look with aview to the future. Despite the opposition being lesser for want of a better word, this girl looks as good as any 2yo filly I’ve seen this season.
Seelo wins and as such…is eliminated by virtue of debuting on a non-Group 1 track.
I noticed this last year actually. After the Guineas + Oaks entries came out I went through and eliminated those who didn’t fit the trends and made a shortlist for each race and I noticed that quite a few of those won both prior to and after the Classics I had them shortlisted for.
And I know it’s a ‘short’list of 99 horses from 420-odd initial entries, but Unex El Greco + Tazahum both won recently at 12/1, Frankel at a shortish price, Treasury Devil + Masked Marvel yesterday at short prices, Seelo today after being well-backed. I think for the remainer of this season I’ll have a virtual quid on every 2-year-old from my Derby shortlist that runs and see what happens. Just a shame I missed the two 12/1 shots above but oh well.
There are 3 fillies on my shortlist, all of whom are owned by Godolphin and the first of them runs tomorrow – Rumh. Entered in a Fillies’ maiden at Newmarket.
And that’s the only 2yo on my Derby shortlist that’s entered over the next 3 days. The list is now down to 98 runners – take out the French-trained, the ‘unattractive’ Classic trainers and the Galileo-sired and we’re left with 60-odd, so a fair way to go yet.
I’d also like to make a correction – I misread Masked Marvel’s in-running comment last night. He didn’t ‘quicken’ – the comment was referring to the leader at the time who did ‘quicken’.
I decided not to take the 40/1 on offer with Coral as he was 39/1 on Betfair this morning, although he’s back into 24/1 now, so I’ll do him tomorrow morning. I did snaffle £5EW on Treasury Devil at 33/1 EW 1-2-3 1/4 though.
Thought I’d mess around and see if I couldn’t shorten the shortlist any further while I wait for files to transfer around external hard drives…
Visited the Godolphin website to try and find out names for some unnamed colts I had on my list. Of the 10 or so Bin Suroor Derby entrants on my shortlist, not one of them is recognised as being in training according to their website. Genius Beast’s on there, as are Rumh and Mariner’s Lodge, so clearly I’m searching on the correct page. Very strange. There are also a few colts listed as having Sheikh Mohammed as the owner who don’t have a trainer list – again, I’ve checked these on Godolphin.com and nothing pops up.
Presuming they remain not in training – and I very much doubt they’d pop up suddenly – that’s 9 Bin Suroor horses I can scratch off the list and 4 unnamed colts that don’t have a trainer listed.
A couple of Royer-Dupre-trained animals on my shortlist have Irish Derby entries while several don’t, so I presume I can forget about those too.
O’Brien has 3 entrants who are still unnamed and hold no other entries for any other races, including the Irish Derby. I presume they won’t be doing anything either.
Those 2 trainers combined account for a further 10 runners.
So preliminarily eliminating all of those from my shortlist of 97 leaves me with a much more manageable 74.
4 other French-trained horses, a Muir-trained entrant and one from Perrett’s yard too – a further 6 to be ‘eliminated’. And then 11 Galileo juveniles! A shortlist of 52. Of course none of these are serious rules that I’m adhering too, but it at least gives me a group to concentrate on. I’ve also had to add one to my shortlist – a Dubawi colt. Dubawi’s stamina index figure’s gone up as more of his horses have run and as such now qualifies as a Derby sire. Shamardal also does (currently 8.3) and I looked through his progeny that I’d eliminated as well. But there’s just the 1 Dubawi colt who’s not even showing a trainer.
Masked Marvel’s been given a RPR of 83 for his debut success – not mindblowing by any means. Treasury Devil’s been given 96 for his easy Sandown win, showing an improvement of 12lbs from his debut.
Well it looks like being a sensationally boring week for the 2yos given that we’re almost 1 week away from the final month of the season.
As I see it, 3 2yos on my shortlist have entries for this week; Frankel, Mariner’s Lodge and Long Live The King.
I’m extremely surprised that so few raced juveniles remain on my shortlist. Of the 97 or so 2yos, only 5 of them have actually run.
It could be a very murky Derby picture if Frankel gets beaten on Saturday.
Here we go! Garde Cotiere is entered! At Newbury on Tuesday with Ryan Moore supposedly down to ride.
Albert Bridge is entered in the same race, while from the perspective of the Guineas, Mantoba and Unex Dali are entered too.
We obviously have Frankel on Saturday, while Long Live The King could be down to race on the weekend too – entered in a Gowran Park maiden and the Beresford. I’d be surprised if he went to the Beresford to take on Casamento given he’s had just the 1 run and finished 2nd.
Though i got 33/1 for Frankel in the derby i hope Amen comes out soon i do get him out on the track AOB
And Zarkava.Do you think Native Khan is a derby horse i know he is not entered but his trainer does supplement horses like Snow Fairy.Could he be a derby horse or just a 2000 guineas horse
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.