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If we were talking about two horses rated 86 and 89, the handicapper wouldn’t be waiting for the same thing to happen a second time before acting accordingly.
On your other point, it’s is farcial that Altior is only rated 1 pound higher than Bristol and 2 pounds higher than Clan Des Obeax. Altior has hammered all of his opposition in almost all of his races and displayed himself as a top class and consistent horse.
Altior has mostly ran in 2,3,4,5 runner fields over basically the same trip all career.
Both Bristol De Mai and Clan Des Obeaux have started over around 2miles, raced over 2 1/2 miles and are now racing over 3miles plus in a variety of field sizes.
If Altior raced against these 2.off level weights over 2miles then altior would win very easily。
If Altior raced against these off level weights over 3m 2f in gold cup I would guess that both would comfortably beat altior.
So on what basis should Altior be much higher rated than BDM or CDO?
I would assume a 3rd champion chase (assuming he wins this year) would be the aim next season.
only way I could see him stepping up in trip is if he gets beat in this years champion chase.
No horse has won 3 champion chases since the eighties (Badsworth Boy) and he was the only triple winner in history.
Think of the legendary double winning.champion chasers such as viking flagship (my fave all time horse pre elegant escape), master minded and Moscow flyer.
Hendo has to go for the 3rd if he can keep altior sound (again assuming he wins the 2nd).
He will have santini as a potential gold cup.horse next year.
Altior has mostly ran in 2,3,4,5 runner fields over basically the same trip all career.
Both Bristol De Mai and Clan Des Obeaux have started over around 2miles, raced over 2 1/2 miles and are now racing over 3miles plus in a variety of field sizes.
If Altior raced against these 2.off level weights over 2miles then altior would win very easily。
If Altior raced against these off level weights over 3m 2f in gold cup I would guess that both would comfortably beat altior.
So on what basis should Altior be much higher rated than BDM or CDO?
That’s not how a handicapper comes to a certain mark tho is it?
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Not even in the slightest jack
Ive tried to explain ratings for two pages now
I give up LOL
CDO 7/1 is a terrible price. How on Earth is he rated 173?. The King George was rubbish. He beat a game 10 year old in Thistlecrack, a horse that’s not suited by kempton or that ground in Native River, a horse that patently doesn’t stay 3m in Politilogue, a Might Bite on the decline and 2 market principals that fell half way round. He is clearly on the up but wouldn’t touch him for this.
Elegant Escape for me Potato At 33-1.
I will also bet Valtor, but I will wait to see if he goes above 33-1
Potato – I’ve heard enough on Altior from Henderson during the last few months to conclude that it’s very likely we’ll see his stable star in next season’s King George.
He’s very much a man of routine and even admitted about a week ago that it was possible he had been too cautious when planning Altior’s season.
My inference there is that others close to him whom he trusts, possibly even the owner and probably Nico, have spoken in favour of the challenge during post-race discussions and his own opinion is changing.Welcome to the winning team Buckers
Charlie how can you say Thistlecrack doesnt like kempton when his career best chase performance came in the king george?
Mark sometimes it’s better off not listening to what trainers and jockeys say. There is no chance Altior will run in a gold cup.
my bad Charlie I misread what you had written.
That would have been some comment had you of made it.
Firstly, I didn’t say Gold Cup.
Secondly, caution is heeded when listening to one comment. Listening to several over a period of time can often give you an edge.As usual, doing a book on this, but unlike previous years I’m approaching the initial entry stage a bit disappointed, as I think I’ve made a bit of an ass of it.
I’ve had my first larger “traditional” bet with the books, and yes Potato, I’m joining Peter and Buckers with Elegant Escape.
Lots of good trials obviously over the Christmas Period, with new contenders emerging, but he was as impressive as the others to me, and I’m staggered that the price held.
The minute he won I thought “Gold Cup”. No, hold on, that’s not strictly true. The minute he won I thought of a big cartoon potato jumping up and down celebrating, but that’s probably got something to do with this place.
The Grand National didn’t even cross my mind for him, it has to be The Gold Cup.
33’s looks too big, but the 25’s NRNB makes more sense.
Elegant Escape 25’s EW NRNB
Welcome aboard Venture.
I would think if he runs in the grade 2 denman next month then he will be no bigger than 14/1 after that race and single figure odds on the day would then become very likely as a few of the big names may well have dropped out by the final decs.
Assuming he wins the denman which of course I do then form figures of
1/2/1/1
Will look very appealing to the general public and will shorten on the day.
Dont think you can go to wrong with 25/1 NRNB.
A very nice bet indeed.
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