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I’d say he’ll stay here, ham; although the JLT looks a much easier race. He has the C&D so they should stick to the plan
THe 4 miler will clearly ruin many a good horse as does the national.
Of the last 12 winners of the 4 miler only 1 of the 12 won next time out with 8 of the 12 unplaced.
9 winners returned to the following years festival with 8 getting beat.Horses who run big races in this race more often than not don’t run to the same height again.
Did the race ruin Native river and would he have stood a better chance in last years gold cup had he gone the RSA route the previous year?
Impossible to answer with certainty this question. Though it is certainly possible the horse may have got 2nd or even 1st in the gold cup had he avoided the 4 miler. We can’t be certain but we would be somewhat foolish to say 100% that 4 mile race didn’t take something out of Native rivers future races.
As for I don’t have NRNB and if elegant escape runs in another festival race I lose my money.
This is not true though it is correct it isn’t nrnb as I wrongly stated.
If the horse doesn’t run at the festivalI get a full refund on my bet.
If it runs in a different race I get my money back as a free betWhether I get a free bet or a refund should Tizzard lose his mind and actually run this potential future gold cup winner in the 4 miler then to me it makes no difference as the money will be reinvested somewhere else at the festival.
“How does EE “clearly” have the beating of BC he only won last time because the weights lol he would be 0/2 against him”
He clearly has the beating of Black Corton for a variety of reasons.
EE hated kempton, he is a big galloping horse and clearly didn’t like kemptons sharp track he was the first horse who looked in trouble in the race.
Black Corton no the other hand is a small horse, small horses have an advantage over big gallopers at sharp tracks.You must also factor in the terrible form of colon Tizzard at the time of the race. Following that race up to the end of January Tizzard had 60 runners and just 4 winners with many many short priced horses getting beat.
Tizzard is coming bang into form right on time for the festival.You must also factor in potential improvement.
Black Corton has had 22 career starts (11 chase starts) and has been kept on the go since APril 2017. This is his 13th race in 11 months. He hasn’t been trained or campaigned for the festival and is ending up here by accident as he has done so well (surprising connections). An awful run is imminent and to say a horse who is unbeaten at Cheltenham doesn’t like Cheltenham may well bring me ridicule but I don’t think Cheltenham suits him.EE has had just 11 career races, just 5 over fences and is open to much more improvement than Black Corton. He has been campaigned with Cheltenham in mind and can be confidently expected to produce a career best run at the festival. The track looks made for this staying chaser.
For me it’s clear that elegant escape has the beating of BC at Cheltenham but it’s all about opinions.
Presenting Percy would be more suited to the 4miler and I would think he will go to that race as he look a more a national type than a gold cup horse.
He has ran twice in grade 2 chases and twice got beaten. He has possibly had the worst campaign in history for a crack at the rsa and it will be a surprise if he could even place in this race.Monalee will almost certainly go for the JLT. Even if he turns up in the RSA he has never won a chase over 3 miles, he has fell in 1 of his 3 chase races, all of his career wins came on either soft or heavy ground (close to certain it will be gd-soft at the festival).
I’m more than happy with my 33/1 on EE and can’t see Presenting Percy, Monalee or Black Corton getting anywhere near him should they all turn up in the RSA.
Mares have a bad record in the race and I can’t remember the last one to win the rsa which must be severely offputting for the chances of shattered love and Miss Storm.
Al Boum Photo has never raced in a chase over 3 miles, has fell in 1 of his 3 races and the only time he ran over 3m at hurdles was unplaced 5/8.
Willie Mullins is a great trainer but I’m out and even the great Ruby walsh would rather take his chance on Invitation Only than this one.
Invitation Only has fell this season, has never ran over 3miles fences or hurdles (did run in a pnt to pnt over this trip)
I find it hard to see this horse outstaying elegant escape here and this will be a real stamina test of a race ran at pace.Elegant Escape should be favourite here in my opinion.
Let’s see what happens to this tug boat?? On the day
Flogas victory worries me slightly vautour, without willoughby court, what does he have left to beat in the jlt that he already hasnt? Id say there is very little he couldnt atm and proven at the distance.
And potato, your a mile off with most of that
We will see wether I am a mile off or spot on in 12 days time.
I predict the latter and your arguement as to why black Corton will beat elegant escape has not entirely convinced me:
“How does EE “clearly” have the beating of BC he only won last time because the weights lol he would be 0/2 against him”
lol 
Its factual what i said though, its not an opinion. 99% of what you said is an opinion
Connections have said presenting percy goes rsa, although i agree the 4miler would be better suited
And your theory about small horses better on sharp tracks and vice versa is nonsense.If you genuinely believe elegant escape on what hes did over hurdles and fences deserves to be fav for this race, then there isnt much else i could say on this, could he win? Of course…. is he or should he be near fav – no, 20/1 is about what hed go ofd IF this field lines up as it is, but its likely to cut up a fair bit.
Do you think fences will bring out 26lengths of improvement to get near monalee of this trip? And i still fail to see why he has the beating of black corton…. you havent explained why thats the case…
My theory on small horses being more suited to sharp tracks and big horses being suited to galloping tracks is in fact factual and common sense.
Do I think fences will bring 26 lengths of improvement?
It’s already bought 16lb of improvement so far for the switch to fences and as a young improving horse there is plenty more to come so clearly the answer is yes??
If you fail to see how EE has the beating of BC then I’m umable to help out anymore as I have explained in detail already.
The 4 miler will clearly ruin many a good horse as does the national.
Hoping Dounikos goes here. Was gaining ground hand over fist in the Flogas despite being interfered with after the last.
Judging by the betting, he looks to be going for the 4 Miler which is a big step up in trip.
In the RP a couple of weeks back it said basically that they would be taking time on deciding his target. The next day Gordon said in his Betfair Blog he goes for the 4 Miler.
If he never ran, it could be a big pointer to Shattered Love
No doubt they will make the right call.
@Potatoe
You said as well that Ruby would not ride Al Boum Photo and instead get on Initation Only. That is incorrect. Ruby will be on both of them; Al Boum Photo in The RSA and Invitation Only in the JLT.
Based on Elegent Escape’s proximity to Monalee in last years Albert Bartlett and Elegent Escaps form with Black Corton; I belive the Irish Novice Chasers are far superior to the English Novice Chasers and I can see a score of 4-0 or 3-1 to Ireland over the 4 Novice Chases
Its not entirely true though theres plenty a small horse who like undulating tracks and theres plenty monsters who can gallop round a sharp track just fine, its an individual thing
No i said 26 lengths of improvement against monalee, not 26 legnths improvement upon his own rating, monalee could be a stone better over fences also, until they race each other you cant assume that hes improved anything over monalee, he has 26 lengths to find on hurdles form only, monalee looks better over a fence than he did a hurdle and has won the strongest grade 1 novice chase this season.
You havent explained in detail why EE has the beating of BC, the facts are that if not for a penalty BC would be 2/2 against EE your assuming a track change would be the answer
Like i said, this field has the potential to cut up a fair amount, but it will need to for EE, as it stands just now 20/1 is about right.
Basing the result of a novice chase on a hurdles race from 12 months ago is flawed logic.
The Chase facts are Monalee is officially rated 155
Elegant Escape is officially rated 153That is a 2 lb difference.
Both have potential for improvement over fences though EE has shown the greatest improvement so far for the switch to fences and we haven’t seen his best yet.I see no logic in quoting some hurdles race form from 12 months ago. It bears no relevance to this race.
I fully agree Monalee was the better hurdler that is indisputable it means nothing in the RSA however.
You seem to be stating that Willie Mullins plans are finalised for both horses. They aren’t this is just your opinion it’s not factual.
I agree it’s borderline pointless talking about Monalee in the context of this race as there is only one place he is going and that’s the JLT.
@potatoe,
You are correct that the plans aren’t finalised but if you read between the lines they said the owners have Bonbon Au Meil and he’s definitely going RSA, which means Invitation Only will go JLT. Al Boum stayed beter than Invitation Only LTO too.
Did the race ruin Native river and would he have stood a better chance in last years gold cup had he gone the RSA route the previous year?
Impossible to answer with certainty this question. Though it is certainly possible the horse may have got 2nd or even 1st in the gold cup had he avoided the 4 miler. We can’t be certain but we would be somewhat foolish to say 100% that 4 mile race didn’t take something out of Native rivers future races.
OMG,
How much “certainty” do you want? 99.9% do you?Native River improves enormously to win the two biggest early season staying handicaps – Hennessey and Welsh National, progressing again for victory in the Denman and finishing third in the Gold Cup. Then yet more improvement on reappearance in this year’s Denman… Improving around a stone and a half from the horse he was (although didn’t show it) in the 2016 NH Chase… And yet you think had he not gone for the 4 miler he may have won the Gold Cup…
Not only did he make masses of improvement after the NH Chase, but the horse that got up on the post to pip Native River for second in the Gold Cup was……… Minella Rocco – The 2016 NH Chase winner – I suppose his amazing improvement would’ve been greater had he not gone for the NH Chase too?
Got to be joking Potatoe?
For Mash get Smash.
Value Is Everything
lol 
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