2018 RSA Chase

Great news Charlie

Your dream will become a reality and he will get absolutely smashed.

Nope, I hope he gets smashed because I have backed other horses to win the RSA.

I will take any ground

Heavy, soft, gd-soft, good

No excuses Elegant Escape
The birth of the great

PRESENTING PERCY:
No horse has won this race recently coming into it from a mark of 157.
Won the pertemps handicap hurdle last year but no Pertemps winner has ever gone into win a RSA, in fact no Pertemps winner has won a graded race at a future festival chase or hurdles.
Had an extremely hard race last time against Our Duke on heavy. That looked an awful prep run for the toughest race of his life. This will come to soon.
Patrick Kelly has in his career sent 6 horses to uk chases and all 6 got beat. In the last 5 years in Ireland he has won just two chase races (both were this horse).
The guy doesn’t have the experience with chasers and that has clearly shown with the bizarre preperation this horse has had. Running over marathon trips, hurdles and taking on a gold cup horse on heavy ground as a warm up for the RSA.
You can see why this guy only had 2 chase wins in the last 5 years.
Horse has never raced in a grade 1 chase before, was a big disappointment when only 6th of 8 when tried in a grade1 over hurdles. He was beaten in the only graded chase he ran in.
Not up to this level and will be found out.
Was a beaten favourite at evens last time, no winner of the rsa in the last 12 years was a beaten fav last time out.
Has twice been a beaten fav at evens money this season.
In the last 20 years of the RSA 49 horses had there warmup run for this over shorter than 2m 5 and all 49 got beaten. Percy ran over 2m 4f last time.
58 horses have ran at a Cheltenham festival grade 1 having had there warm up run at Gowran park last time – all 58 have been beaten.

On the positive side for PLODALONG PERCY Davy Russel is a great jockey at cheltenham but unfortunately for Irelands ‘greatest hope’ in a race they ‘can’t lose’ looks horrific here. Hyped up Handicapper who is out of his league. Big shock if he can sneak a place here and will be no match for the awesome Elegant Escape.

MONALEE:

In the last 15 years of the rsa only Might Bite fell in one of his last 3 runs and won here. Monalee fell 2 runs ago.
Won a very weak chase on debut where his only serious market rival Invitation Only fell early. The form of this chase isn’t worth the paper it’s written on.
Then fell on his second run.
Did win the grade 1 floggas chase last time but it was a great ride by his jockey who was allowed to dictate a slowly run race from the front. A nice bridle horse but this is not a street fighter and will have no option but to fight if he is to win this race, will not be able to dictate this in a stop start way and is liable to make mistakes in this.
Even his own trainer thinks the horse should be in the JLT but his owners hav selfishly sent him here due to a large antepost bet.
May well sulk in this as he doesn’t get his own way from the front and that could cause mistakes. Likely to be a long long way behind the horse with the heart of a lion Elegant Escape if in fact he even completes.
Just another Irish horse without a chance of winning this race.
A seriously overhyped chaser who will be found out here.

AL BOUM PHOTO:

Another one who fell 2 runs ago, that isn’t what you want in a race where jumping is the ultimate weapon.
Has never raced over 3m, all 7 of the last 8 winners since 2010 had run over 3m over fences, the exception was lord Windermere who was entered that season in a 3m chase but was a non runner due to heavy ground.
Al Boum Photo won a chase over 2m1f, hardly any winners of the RSA ran over that kind of trip in the season they won this race, DENMAN was one of the few exceptions.
This horse has a tendency to jump right and is prone to mistakes. His jumping will be tested to the max in this war of attrition.
Has never raced in the uk before or at Cheltenham festival, 2 potential negatives he may not like the festival and the crowds and he may be a bad traveller. They won’t know til they get here.
There is no guarantee he will stay this far under these conditions at this stage of is career.
His last 2 wins came after a 214 day break and a 73 day break.
Was 2nd in the floggas last time behind Monalee but the form is questionable as only 7 lengths seperated the first 7 home.
On the plus side Willie Mullins is a good trainer and Ruby Walsh is the greatest jockey off all time.
Unfortunately for Al Boum fans that won’t be enough here

DOUNIKOS:

All of the last 9 winners ignore this were rated at least 134+ over hurdles. Dounikos was rated just 124.
Has never raced over 3m in chase or hurdles and this race will be one hell of a test for his first go at this trip.
Was 4th behind Monalee and al Boum Photo in the floggas and they both look higher class than this horse.
24 of the last 28 winners of this race finished either 1st or 2nd last time, Dounikos of course was 4th.
This horse has been sent off 28/1, 14/1 and 25/1 for all 3 chase runs and is out of his league here.

On the plus side gigginstown stud often win big NH races though unfortunately it won’t be this one.

BONBON AU NIEL:

Lacks experience having had just 2 chase starts. Both races were beginners chases.
Willie Mullins is good but this is a huge step up in grade and the lack of experience is key. Could end up being the best of a bad bunch for the Irish though.

FULL IRISH:

Ok so this one isn’t actually Irish trained but it does stand one thing in common with the Irish runners here – He stands no chance of winning.

Great Britain have dominated the RSA Chase with the Irish having Won it just 6 times since 1985.
GB have won the last two in a row and looking at this years Irish runners the treble looks a formality for Team GB.

We will discuss the 4 British runners later on.

https://youtu.be/FEsEm1I-8bk

But for now we take a moment to think quietly about how great Elegant Escape really is.

ALYSSON MONTERG:

There is a better chance the Irish win this race than this horse and that’s how bad this horses chance is in this race.

That leaves the 3 Great Brits fighting out the finish.

3-BLACK CORTON
2-BALLYOPTIC
1-ELEGANT ESCAPE

Black Corton has a big negative to overcome with the curse of the Feltham chase winner in the RSA. This is also his 14th race in 11 months and it’s by far and away his hardest.
Has won both races at Cheltenham though hasn’t looked at his best in those 2 runs.
It’s 1-1 between Black Corton and EE but EE is improving at a rate of knots and his entire season has been based around getting him to peak here. Black Corton has ended up here by default.
Was fortunate to beat EE last time off level weights as EE hated kemptons sharp track and the Tizzard stable was in awful form.
There is no doubt that EE will comprehensively beat BC this time with conditions ideal for the horse with THE HEART OF VIKING FLAGSHIP. When others are crying enough the beast just keeps galloping and is such a natural jumper. A joy to behold watching Elegant Escape in this race.
Heavy ground is no problem whatsoever for this legend. The only horse in history to get SAMCRO off the bridle was EE on heavy ground and this monster of a chaser won effortlessly on heavy ground last time beating the Pipe horse who may well win tuesdays handicap.
This horse is the most natural jumper of a fence I have ever seen in my life. He has a turn off foot to call on if needed though this race will be won by jumping fluently and landing running and being right up for a fight should anything get close to him here.
EE has been bought along brilliantly by Tizzard with 5 runs producing 2 wins and 3 2nds.
Was beaten into 2nd on his chase debut behind Mia’s Storm. The race was a farce with the first half furlong virtually walked and the rest not run much faster except for the race end where the faster hurdler sprinted away from the galloping stayer.
EE though defeated ran with great credit and it was a pleasing introduction to fences.
His 2nd run looks to have come to quickly after his first run of season and he quite possibly bounced when beaten by ballyoptic. Again it was a slowly run race and bally had more speed in the finish and pulled away. Many positives were gleaned from this performance, once again the natural jumping ability and cruising speed of this horse. But still we all cried out for a truely run race over 3miles something EE was yet to encounter.
The legend in waiting then went to Newbury where he landed his historic first chase victory defeating the apparently unbeatable revelation called Black Corton. Elegant Escape jumped superbly and really sent out a big clue for this years RSA. He was getting 3lb from BC but won much easier than the distance suggested.
Next up the first 3 home in the 2018 RSA lined up against each other in the Feltham. The sharp track suited BC and he beat EE who hated the track and who’s trainer was badly out of form at the time. Ballyoptic was another not suited by Kempton and was well beaten.
Ballyoptic had 2 seasons hurdling and would be one of the highest rated hurdlers to win this race. Twist on Davies has won this race twice and Blaklion won the tolworth en route to winning the RSA, Ballyoptic has taken the same path.
Ballyoptic sprang back to form in a wetherby grade 2 chase winning well. This is tougher but he is the big danger horse to EE and should god forbid anything happen to EE then it’s likely to be Ballyoptic who takes advantage and wins this race.

We do have negatives on Ballyoptic though and are not expecting any problems whatsoever for our great champ in waiting.

THE LEGEND
ELEGANT ESCAPE

If anybody seriously thinks that Elegant Escape is getting beat here then you urgently need to pinch yourself because you are dreaming.

Elegant Escape can’t win.
No horse with the enitials E E has ever won the RSA.

I’ve backed Presenting Persy with a saver on Monalee.
I’ll keep an eye on A Boum Photo in the race to see if he jumps better for Ruby, just in case I need another saver.

Combined odds of Evens either PP or M win, looks good to me.

A grade 1 winner vs EE? “The only horse to get samcro off the bridle” LOl

can only imagine how youl feel if samcro got beat before the rsa LOL

SAMCRO made his choices and chose to avoid the chasing great by hurdling.
He is running scared he will either frank the formline or get beat by the NEW SENSATION DUBAI DESTINATION the half brother to the legend ELEGANT ESCAPE.

THERE IS NO ESCAPE
FROM ELEGANT ESCAPE

Nowhere to Run
Martha and the Vandellas (2018 RSA Remix)

Nowhere to run to, Bally , nowhere to hide
Got nowhere to run to, bally, nowhere to hide
It’s not the horses, I’m a running from
It’s the heartbreak for them I know will come
‘Cause I know you’re so good Elly,
but you’ve become a part of racing history
Ev’rywhere I go, the Irish I see ev’ry step they take, the legend takes three yeah yeah
Nowhere to run to, bally, nowhere to hide
Got nowhere to run to, bally, nowhere to hide
I know you’re so good Elly,
A fan of you I’ll always be, oh
Each night as I sleep, into my heart Monalee and Percy creep
I wake up feelin’ sorry I met you, within 12 months We all forget you
When I look in the mirror to comb my hair
I see a quadruple gold cup winner just a smiling there
They got Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide from you Elly
You Got nowhere to run to, bally, nowhere to hide
I know you’re so good Elly, you’ve become legendary
How can I fight a lover, that shouldn’t be, when it’s so deep
So deep, deep inside of me
My love reaches so high I can’t get over it
It’s so wide I can’t get around it, no
Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide from you Elly
Just can’t get away from you baby, no matter how I try to
I know you’re so good Elly, beat the tree for you waits history
Nowhere to run to baby, nowhere to hide, got nowhere to run to baby