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Who won an Eider and was 4th in the National
Aside from ND, WC”s sire, Court Cave’s stock have a 25% strike rate at 3m2f (6/24) a further 6 were placed at that trip. No guarantee of course that WC will stay but he shows every physical sign of doing so to my eye.
Your not wrong with your opinion by any means, just my eyes tell me the way he battles on, his style of running hed be suited to the rsa, hes not a vautour (yet anyway) but i dont see why vautour wouldnt have won an rsa? should they have chosen so, the trainer of WC is in the same frame of mind as you are….
But it wont do much damage at the prices to nibble away should they change there mind
His pedigree doesnt worry me
One horse on the distaff side which stayed well at top class level
Anything decent by Court Cave has been best over shorter than 3 miles. A few minor wins at 3, a few placed in staying races but nothing like winning an RSA
Court Cave progeny strike rate by distance
Up to 20f. 8.8%
20f to 24.5f. 11.2%
25f to 36f. 10.84%
Pauling’s decision to run WC right handed on his fencing debut doesn’t fill me with inspiration. His only defeat over hurdles was going right and he did not care for it at all yesterday. He has the technique and athleticism but didn’t always show it, panicking for a while after a bad mistake at the third and having to jump the next two (they came up quickly) as best he could. Nico did well settling him then on the longish run to the next.
The horse has a great engine and I think that could be misleading Pauling about his best trip. He could do with settling down and taking a bit more time at his fences. He ought at least to try him over 3m sooner rather than later.
Court Cave progeny strike rate by distance
Up to 20f. 8.8%
20f to 24.5f. 11.2%
25f to 36f. 10.84%
Yeah but at what level ? Good 2 1/2 milers can win mediocre staying races but not an RSA or a King George.
I agree about Huntingdon being a strange choice but then Pauling was assistant to Henderson and he did the same thing.
I’m rarely that critical about a novice chaser’s first run in public. Trainers can have schooled these horses over fences during their hurdling careers and yet every time they travel to a racecourse, they’ve run over the smaller obstacles. It becomes routine. The first time they go over fences at the track must be a little strange, even stranger when they’re not going in their preferred direction.
He knuckled down to in the home straight so well done to anyone who was given 14-1 on the exchanges at that point.
He reminds me a little of Seeyouatmidnight – another front running 2 1/2 miler who should never have run in the RSA. This is what I said at the time
Agree with you about the JLT for him. Don’t see any reason to step him up in trip, even on better ground. Some horses don’t stay 3 miles on Good just because they stay 2m5f on Heavy.
That was a poor 3 mile point he won at Dromahane when he was all out to win and the Kelso race was muddling to say the least.I was waiting to see what you made of Willoughby’s chasing debut Joe.
I guess that’s a lesson learnt about right-handed tracks, although you’d think Ben Pauling would have known about that tendency from the horse’s work at home. The trainer doesn’t really inspire confidence, does he?
I’m also willing to forgive and don’t think the chasing debut wasn’t as bad as it looked. The jockey was firing him into every fence early on as if he thought he was riding Edredon Bleu, so he certainly must have been pinging them at home in the build-up. Good attitude to keep out the challengers after the last too. We didn’t react by changing his price for anything ante-post. Unchanged for the JLT, RSA and Stayers’ Hurdle.
On another plus point, maybe you’ll get a generous price on him next time, presumably left-handed.
Mark, I had a look at it and the Court Cave progeny do better classwise the more the trip increases but there’s not that much in it. Let me know if you want the full figures.
I don’t know Pauling’s thinking on this horse and given his Warwick performance, of which the most impressive part to my eye was the way he stayed on in soft ground (on RPR that was just 2lbs below his festival win), I cannot see why he’s resisting stepping him up. Much of what the horse does over these shorter trips is just confirming what an engine he has, and he did that again at Huntingdon.
He’d be as well throwing him in to something decent around Christmas so that he has evidence on which to base the horse’s festival target rather than educated guesswork. By the way, much credit to Nico for that ride; the horse showed every sign of losing the place after that blunder at the third and there’s many a jock who’d have handled that differently with potentially dire consequences. He’s a superb steeplechase jock.
Aye, Soldier (my post crossed with yours).
Don’t know that much about Pauling but he posted some schooling videos a while ago on Twitter saying, pretty much, that’ll do him, he’s a great jumper, no need to do any more. I know some trainers take that view and it’s fair enough; I wouldn’t question him just on that. But I still think he went for the wrong race at the festival, daft as that sounds, and Huntingdon was the wrong place to debut his horse, so he’s not inspiring confidence just now and it dilutes my betting appetite for what I think is a potential top notcher.
Was seeyouatmidnight not a close 3rd in the scottish national? I dont see any resemblence myself…
Well handicapped o a tight flat track. He has never won over regulation fences beyond 3 miles.
Making all in an RSA is for only the copper bottomed and Willoughby Court hasn’t even run over 3 miles yet.
I really don’t see the point until he’s out of novice company. He won a Neptune, a race which has often been a pointer towards the Champion Hurdle. He’s a speed horse capable of staying further but 3 miles shouldn’t be on the agenda until next year.
Mulholland made a similar mistake with Shantou Village and racing him in the Albert Bartlett
Couldn’t have been much more impressed with Ballyoptic there. The market wasn’t really speaking for him but he dispelled the worries about his jumping with a pretty much foot-perfect performance. Beat some good yardsticks too.
We’ve clashed it to 12/1 – surprised the other firms weren’t as impressed. Just nibbled in a rung or two across the board. Still some 20/1 available.
I would like to see Bamako Moriviere run here.
Have a feeling he is seen as a long term gold cup horse and this could be the best race for him.
LostSoldier – what price would you offer for him?
I don’t think Bamako Moriviere is held in that sort of regard, just seems to be pot-hunting early season and hasn’t run to 150 yet. 40/1? Something like that.
Fair enough. I happen to think that perhaps he is held in high regard.
Only because in an interview early in the season Ruby said he would like to ride the gold cup winner (obviously) and he doesn’t care which one of Yorkhill, Djakadam or Bamako Moriviere was to win it. Bearing in mind BM is a novice, that sounded like a strange comment for Ruby to make to me. He’s looked very useful since so perhaps Mullins has found a horse far better over fences than hurdles. He couldn’t have been more impressive in the grade 3 on Sunday.
Fwiw, id absolutely take 40/1. Would’ve been happy with 33s if I see it offered.
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