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Not a very inspiring renewal in my view.
I saw some very bullish statements regarding Presenting Percy earlier this season but I can’t be having him at the odds he is here. I feel there is a chance that his effort behind Our Duke may turn out to be overrated in the coming weeks. I’ll be laying Our Duke in the Gold Cup for sure.
Without getting involved in previous arguments here, I will just simplify by saying that Black Corton looks sure to be thereabouts. He has been in the 1-2-3 in 21 of his 22 runs (albeit a two runner affair once) and that’s an admirable run of form with plenty Chase success built into the form.
I won’t be fretting about Black Corton’s official rating of 155. Might Bite took a rating of 154 into last year’s race and Blaklion was only 150 on OR going into the previous renewal. More important factors for me are jumping ability and experience, allied to the trip and likelihood of running his race.
I’ll stick a few quid on the nose at 7/1 and he’ll be my Placepot horse on the day.
Black Corton 7/1 will do me for an interest. He’s 2/2 at Cheltenham, if a bit lucky when Sizing Tennessee fell but he had earlier beaten the same horse over two and a half miles, when Frodon was way back in third. There seems every reason to assume he will go close.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Shock – horror. Trainer is open with punters, warning the target might change if conditions are different.
Where’s the controversey, Potatoe?
When the ground is very soft not only does a horse need to act on the going, the surface places a far greater emphasis on stamina. Strongly run RSA on heavy could be a similar stamina test to a good ground NH Chase. Strongly run JLT on heavy could be the same stamina test as a good ground RSA. Makes perfect sense not to me.
Value Is EverythingMight bite and blaklion went into the rsa off the back off half the amount of starts black corton has they where improving with every run, whereas black corton has ran to 155 3 times in a row,
Id be disappointed if something cant improve past black corton after how many starts hes had, looks a good irish bunch to me.
Good looking race regardless,
Is Snow Falcon confirmed for the Ultima Tommy? I liked the look of him for the Plate although noticed at present odds it seemed an unlikely target.
Not seen anywhere that he’s confirmed Boz but would be the more suitable of the two races for him imo, and the market would suggest he’ll go there, with a bit of blue about him on Oddshecker. Looks well handicapped to me, a better chaser than a hurdler from what I’ve seen and rated 8 lbs lower over the larger obstacles.
Cheers Tommy. Had him down as a Plate type more as I’m not sure he truly wants 3 miles. Always been a strong traveller over the trip but found wanting at the business end.
De Bromhead wants and thinks Monalee should run in the JLT. Apparently it’s the owners who are pushing that he runs in the RSA.
Silly owners. The trainer knows the horse best.
Potato – Apparently the reason he is going to be in the RSA is because the owner has a large antepost bet from many months ago on Monalee for the RSA.
The Timeform preview was quite tedious last night but one thing they pointed out was that the RSA tends to be won by a more battle hardened type [obviously, there are exceptions]. Thought it was an interesting slant to the race.
Id like to know where they get that stat from moe, as in chase terms the last 6/7 years or so its went to a horse whos had anywhere between 2-5 chase starts. Most of the entries this year and to previous winners their hurdle runs vary but its very similar. Not sure if that qualifies as battle hardened does it?
By battle hardened in the context of this race they mean a horse who has had 3+ runs over fences as opposed to the runners who have had 1-2 runs.
Only one horse in the last 25 years+ has fell in one of there last 3 runs before winning this.
Cross off
Monalee 😉
Al Boum PhotoMight BIte was the exception. Will it be a case of London buses or business as usual this year?
The horse with the highest OR rarely wins this race. Which is hardly surprising as the runners are generally all improving horses.
Its a pointless stat potato, what % of horses win a grade 1 after a fall lto, usually takes a special horse to do that, now im not saying monalee is special, im just highlighting winning the flogas after that fall, falls into a select category
If your analysing or’s you should be taking into consideration that nothing in the kauto star was able to improve past 155 and the winner has been unable to improve on 155 for three consecutive races, that must concern you as to what rate the english runners are progressing ?
Not that i know much potato, but food for thought.
Thats definitely not what battle hardened means in context of any race potato lol, how many runners in this field have had 3 + starts? I havent looked but id assume that would apply to almost all of them. If that was the case then its a pointless stat.
It’s not a pointless stat at all.
None of the runners in this race will have had there jumping put under such pressure before as they will face in this race.
Therefor if a novice has fell recently in a much easier race where they were under much less pressure then the speed, crowd and competitiveness of this race will find out any jumping flaws they have. One mistake in this race and you are in trouble and on the back foot.
And I can assure you this is what battle hardened mean s in the context of this race.
“If your analysing or’s you should be taking into consideration that nothing in the kauto star was able to improve past 155 and the winner has been unable to improve on 155 for three consecutive races, that must concern you as to what rate the english runners are progressing ?”
It doesn’t concern me in the slightest.
Elegant Escapes rating was never going to fly up following an effortless win in a 4 runner prep race, it was just a warm up for this.Black Corton is unlikely to improve again though that said it was unlikely he would improve to get to this level so you never know, though EE has this horse completely covered.
One things for certain Elegant Escape has lots of improvement to come and will without any doubt put up a career best performance in this race.
EE will be a very tough horse to beat in this. This will become more apparent to you as we get closer to the race.
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