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Since my little favourite Whisper, who I was intending to back EW for this, is out, I have added Killultagh Vic at 25s (33s available with Coral but I don’t have a Coral account). Beating Thistlecrack over 3m is good form even if old form.
How Edwulf cheated death – https://igsrv.org/miracle-of-cheltenham—how-horse-cheated-death
Road to respect one of the lays of the festival
– was pretty poor over hurdles only rated high 120’s.
– clearly a better chaser and has been progressive but I just think he’s been in the right race at the right time in the main.
– won a grade one last time but the 2 market principles didn’t turn up at all (sizing John and yorkhill)
– was all out to beat 66/1 shot balko des flos that day
– of the horses he’s beaten before that majority are nowhere near gold cup class and the good horses he’s beaten like outlander is a plodder and would never win a GC
Would love to hear what the positives are for this horse guys. I’m sure there must be some people who rate him.
Let me know would love to hear why you would back such a horseI’ll be laying the place in the gold cup
While I won’t be backing him,especially at the price he is,it’s not hard to make a case for Road to Respect.
Previous festival winner,will love the better ground,has beaten most of the principles already this season and it looks like a poor renewal.
I think he’s got a decent chance of a place.
Have 3 horses for this at 150/1, 150/1 and 140/1. They are Killultagh Vic, Blaklion and Bachasson.
Looks like Blaklion wont go though; which is a shame because his form is working out really well.
greenasgrass and vatour good work picking out Killutagh Vic at those prices!! He’s one I like too but getting a bit short now, may just put him in an accumulator to get a run for my money, obviously he’s not a short price but I only like backing things properly if I’m really confident in them and there’s a few question marks over his head for me which are stopping me, however if I had the prices you guys had I certainly wouldn’t be complaining :D :D
Positive update on killultagh vic today, will probably green out now as im
Not sure if he will shorten all that much between now and the gold cup, unless the likesnof native river have a poor showing tomorrowHoping they run bachasson once more before they give a definite on his target.
Bristol de Mai not heading to cheltenham.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Our Duke possibly running in the Red Mills this weekend over 2 and a half is interesting.
Jessie could be trying to get him to jump faster as he was slowing into some of them at Leopardstown and going down in trip he would need to be faster.
Might meet Presenting Percy in the race, who may also be doing the same exercise at sharpening up a bit.
Just heard an interesting stat on The Final Furlong Podcast. Usually the horse who has had a good consistent prep wins the Gold Cup and horses with a bad prep generally dont win; Lord Windermere being the exception, although that race fell apart with Silviniaco Conti not staying and Bobs Worth pulling up.
Sizing John won Lexus and Irish Gold Cup in the run up to last years Gold Cup.
Don Cossack had 3 wins and a fall in the King George on the way to his Gold Cup.
Coneygree was 3 out of 3 heading into The Gold Cup.
Bobs Worth won The Hennessy before his Gold Cup.Based on that there are 3 horses that are having a great season going into the Gold Cup; Might Bite, Road to Respect and Blaklion. Honourable mention for Definitely Red; who has had a decent prep as well if you leave his seasonal debut out where he was thrashed by Bristol De Mai and Blaklion.
Blaklion probably wont run but 20/1 NRNB is great value.
Might Bite blowing up after the last fence in Cheltenham is something to consider as well.Based on the above theory I’m moving towards thinking Road to Respect is the value bet at 10/1 e/w NRNB.
Horses who have not had an ideal prep and can be ruled out based on the above theory;
Killultagh Vic
Coney Island
Native River
Sizing John
Our Duke
Minella Rocco
DjakadamVautour i’m not a fan of these “Stats” that are rolled out every year to try point out winners at the festival,, when you scratch surface of them its easy to see the flaws, or where they have been made to look goo to fit the race, I used to read so many of them pointing to so many races as narrowing down the field,, I now ignore them mostly
For instance on your ruled out list / or previous winners lit
Killultagh Vic fell last when probably going to win in Ireland,, where is that any worse a prep than Don Cossack falling the King George in his year when probably not going to win
Native river, won fairly soft race on comeback, but I believe was always been held back to be fresh for Gold Cup one run one win gold cup , Bobs Worth similar one run long layoff after Hennessey straight to gold cup
Coneygree – was 3 novice chases was it,, the lack of Novices running in Gold cup would have this one as an outlier,, if a novice was good enough to go Gold Cup you would expect a line of wins next to his name given company it would have ran in
Just something to bear in mind when reading any Stat pointers
for what its worth Native River is the most solid one off the field I feel at the moment,, but would love to see the enigmatic, Might Bite run them into the ground
Yeah, fair enough. I take most of your points but Don Cossack had a much better prep compared to Killultagh Vic. Don Cossack won 3 from 3 over fences before the King George, where he fell. Killultagh Vic was sent off to be a hunter, sent back to Mullins, ran in a 3 mile hurdle, ran through every hurdle and still won, went to Irish Gold Cup and fell. That’s the reason he is in the disregard list.
I have Killultagh Vic at 150s so I hope I’m wrong. Would love to see Killultgah Vic winning it.
If you are correct and Might Bite runs them into the ground; then that will prove the theory
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