Betfair Chase 2018

Trainer of BDM to walk the course concerned about the drying ground.

2 days ago he was saying ground won’t matter. Haha.
I’ve never taken any notice of his interviews for last couple of years always the optimist.

What is the bet that he finds the ground faster than the official good (good to soft in places) and pulls him out?

You’re quite right ginger. I was looking at his first run in the autumn and forgot the other one.

I see Nigel Twiston-Davies is now concerned about the drying track. I hope he runs, not so much for the betting side, but he is a fascinating horse, the kind I like. The straightforward ones are the horses you want to own. They consistently run to their mark leaving little detective work to be done for the punter.

Treating Bristol De Mai as a suspect in a fictional mystery, what would Sherlock Holmes say? He has a solid report full of evidence and the starkest fact confronting him is that Bristol De Mai shows what seems his true character only at Haydock. This is obvious and unarguable. The question is why does this happen?

Many of Sherlock’s contemporaries believe that it is not so much Haydock as a track, but the deep ground there he likes. BUT, he has failed to reproduce his ‘evidence’ on deep ground elsewhere. Either the ground at Haydock plays a much smaller part than has been allowed for, or the texture of Haydock’s deep ground differs so significantly from similar going at other tracks that it stands on its own. The trouble with the latter assumption is that our only witness here is Bristol De Mai, and nature has imposed an eternal Fifth Amendment on him.

What of the other matters the horse cannot discuss? Those stomach ulcers. Are they made much worse by racing? Could it be that after a Herculean effort in bad ground that those ulcers flare up so badly the horse needs a long rest before he is comfortable enough to race again? Was his final run at Aintree last season some evidence of this theory? And does the fact that he ran so comparatively poorly immediately after his last two Haydock victories lend that theory even more credence?

Well, you might say, after his first Haydock win he won again. Hmmm, but that was three years ago; were the ulcers there back then? Also, that race was comparatively short at 20f compared to the stamina tests of the other two.

Let’s return to the known evidence – the steeplechase track at Haydock. If we set aside the ground for now, what is it about Haydock that makes it different from the tracks where he hasn’t run so well?

1 It’s left-handed

Interesting . . . 9 out of his top 10 Racing Post Ratings have been achieved going left handed. The only right handed course, Sandown, was down in joint 9th/10th.

2 Haydock’s a galloping track, owing to its long straights.

All but one of his top 10 Racing Post Ratings (Aintree the exception) were gained at galloping tracks.

3 Haydock has easy fences

Does it? They are portable fences, which can be made just as stiff as permanent fences. Not enough evidence at hand of casualties at Haydock or elsewhere to provide any insight.

4 Haydock is a flat track

Of his top 10 Racing Post Ratings, the top four were at flat tracks. Some evidence there but inconclusive.

(NOTE: all Racing Post Ratings based on chase form only)

What of the horse’s style of running, might Haydock particularly suit his natural stride length, especially in the positioning of the fences?

The only evidence to support this would be that Bristol De Mai jumps Haydock better than he does any other track, and gets into a sustained rhythm there that he has never been able to produce elsewhere.

Form detectives will have their own opinions on what aspect is most important in staying steeplechases. My own is that rhythm, by which I mean a sustained rhythm for as long as possible, is the most important aspect – all else being equal. Sustained rhythm cannot happen without good jumping, so that quality is assumed.

So, aside from the solid evidence that he is better going left-handed, the chief suspect in Bristol De Mai’s top performance level is not so much tied to a particular track, but to achieving sustained rhythm. It is likely, I think, that Haydock’s layout and, perhaps the makeup of its fences, provides Bristol De Mai with the ideal conditions to establish a rhythm early in the race and sustain it to the end. His strong record on galloping tracks lends credence, I think, to the benefits of rhythm in staying steeplechases.

Over to you my learned friends.

I still think it is more on the side of the deep ground that he can cope with so much better than his rivals, to him that is like good ground to other horses.

Going that slower pace as well gives him more time to organise himself at his fences, bearing in mind that it takes more effort to jump out of that ground as you are sinking further into the ground on take off and thus places more emphasis on stamina (which I think he has a lot more than people realise). In that regard, I would very much like to see him run in something like a Welsh National (highly unlikely), which traditionally is run on deep ground or even in the National itself in a year or so.

Unless we get a heavy ground Master Oats type Gold Cup year, this Betfair race in deep ground is always going to be his own Gold Cup as in other top races (usually run on better ground) he just isn’t good enough.

You make an excellent case Joe, but…

He has a solid report full of evidence and the starkest fact confronting him is that Bristol De Mai shows what is arguably his true character only at Haydock. This is obvious and unarguable.

…Now you know me better than that.

For sure Bristol De Mai has run to his best at Haydock, but is it any better than a 7 lengths second to Might Bite at Aintree? Or a half length victory over Blaklion giving the runner-up 6 lbs at Wetherby?

Last year’s Betfair Chase might have looked better than anything he’d achieved before, beating Cue Card 57 lengths with Outlander a further 9 away, half to Tea For Two. But Outlander has never shown his form in Britain and Tea For Two reserves his best for sharp tracks (Kempton and Aintree) on better ground and probably found the stamina test too severe (tavelled well to the home straight and then hit a brick wall). Cue Card had fallen only a couple of weeks before and never got in to a rhythm, never jumping or travelling with his usual fluency. Long, long way below form. So Bristol De Mai was the only horse in the race to run to form – was it any better than Aintree Wetherby or previous Haydock efforts? Well another way to look at the form is comparing the following race on that day… A handicap over the same distance was run at a similar pace, on even more cut up ground and was won by Chase The Spud off a mark of 139, carrying exactly the same 11-7 weight as Bristol De Mai and co did in the Betfair. Putting up a time just 10.5 seconds slower than Bristol De Mai. Had the 139 rated Chase The Spud ran in the Betfair Chase and been beaten 10.5 seconds by BDM it would’ve been pretty much what was expected. And… had CTS run in the Betfair it would’ve been obvious no other horse ran anything like their best form… And that was why BDM won by that far. Indeed – for time enthusiasts – considering what time Cue Card, Outlander and Tea For Two must have put up compared to what lesser horses did on the same day in other races – one could say it is obvious and unarguable.

imo Joe, Bristol De Mai is at his best on soft/heavy ground on flat left-handed tracks in races he can either dominate from the front or race prominently with a clear view of his fences. So far in his career he’s got those race conditions most often at Haydock. ie At similarly flat left-handed courses he will be just as effective given the right ground and race position… And – if I am correct – will not run to form given less testing conditions at Haydock. Not that his best form is anywhere near good enough to win if either Might Bite or Native River show theirs. Racing Post rating vastly over-estimates the Betfair performance, anyone with the RP rating in mind is sure to come to the same conclusions as you did.

One can question both Cheltenham runs, yes the ground was suitably heavy in the Cotswold Chase but they changed tactics with him (from front running at Haydock) plus it was his 3rd G1/G2 race on soft or heavy ground in around 2 months and he did have wind surgery immediately after indicating that there was possibly something amiss with him to explain the below par run.

The 161 JLT run was achieved over 2.5 yrs ago against Black Hercules who has obviously had his problems but still hasn’t won another race since (actually beaten over 68L in 3 subsequent starts) and L’Ami Serge who couldn’t win over fences after that but did win two G1s & a G2 race when switched back to hurdles. In hindsight, him getting a 161 rating for that run maybe open to debate and it wouldn’t be the last time that would happen to him in that regard.

4 runs on heavy ground, 3 wins and one 3rd place (in a race where you can question that he had an off day) and a total aggregate winning distance of 95L indicates his ability to deal with those conditions is his biggest attribute…well to me anyway.