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Getting close to the winning post could hear drunken ironic voices from the Grandstand (maybe that was Nathan?)
Not me squire, don’t drink enough to get drunk
perhaps it was Sean Levy shouting that you are running a suicidal pace akin to that of MustadeemGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Yep, I knew as soon as I saw Politologue’s Ascot entry that my bet for this was toast, so I’ve cashed out. The only way he will run in this is if MB, NR and possibly CDO’d legs all fall off between now and Saturday.
I see the owner is still nursing Gold Cup aspirations for him; he’s more likely to get 3m1f round Haydock on good than 3m2f up the Cheltenham hill on unknown going but I suppose it makes more sense to ease him in with a 2m4f Grade 2 than make him chase the big guns this early in the season.
No bet for me in this, hope it’s a good race though. Would love to see Thistlecrack firing on all cylinders again!!LOL Nah, Sean Levy would’ve switched the sprinklers on or run me over, Nath’.
Value Is EverythingMight Bite will get the perfect toe into this from NR and then pick it up after the second last. Evens a treat.
Don’t lay prices generally but tempted to lay BDM. Only scenario i see where he wins is if the rest of them fall.
Although he’s disappointed me more than once, I must back Bristol De Mai. Even admitting to bias I think 7/1 is a daft price for a horse who’s been to Haydock 3 times and won by a total of 111 lengths in two Grade 2s and a Grade 1.
Any fit horse with that track record should not be 7/1 in any field of five, whatever his perceived going preferences.
Are you worried about the ground for BDM? Yes he does well at Haydock but needs very soft or heavy ground to be at his best?
I agree joe, im not BDM biggest fan as i rambled on about last season, but it could vey well be a love for the track as much as is the ground, 7/1 is a silly price regardless.
Cant see NR winning atall
Phil, I’m happy to trade off on the ground as he’d be half the price or shorter in soft/heavy. I think it’s a big assumption that it’s the ground he loves and not the track. He’s been well beaten in deep ground a number of times. Also, he has run really well on decent ground elsewhere.
I hope you’re right and that he pings round and puts it up to them…and that TC is back to his best…and that CDO is the horse Nicholls hopes he is…and that the big two run up to form…and that nobody falls or suffers any other disaster.
Of course those 5 stars are unlikely to align, but if they do my nose is going to be GLUED to the telly. And I haven’t a bean on any of ’em.
This might just be a 5 runner race, but it’s an absolute cracker. Might Bite at his
best, perhaps not even his best, should take this, although a very good case can be made
for Native River, who put MB in his place in the Gold Cup. That was a slog that day and
Native River has stamina to burn. This wont be so stamina dependent, so MB may well get
his revenge. Having said all that, I’m backing neither as I’ve got the same nagging doubt
as Joe, does Bristol De Mai just love it round Haydock or does he absolutely
need it like a bog. If I’m honest I’m not sure, he certainly likes it when flippers and a
snorkel are essential but I think his price is almost an insult for a horse that loves it
round here, has never been beaten round here, and is a very decent animal. 7/1 surely wont
still be there come Saturday
Another fantastic renewal of this race.
BDM has won on good to soft so the ground isn’t necessarily an issue but he was beaten fair and square by Might Bite and Haydock isn’t that different from Aintree so I can’t see why the form would be turned around.
One of the great things about this race is that we don’t have to worry about the pace angle. Also the beauty of the triple crown bonus is that every horse will be primed for this.
It’s so hard to split the first two but if Native River gets into a rhythm and sets a good gallop I can see another Johnson masterclass.
Finally I really want to see Thistlecrack come back. Roll on Saturday.
BdM was walloped 24l in the Aintree Bowl the previous year by Teafortwo and Cue Card so it could be that
– he is a Haydock horse but not an Aintree horse (weird)
– he is not a spring ground horse
or
– he is not a spring time horse (due to gastric ulcers progressively worsening in training, natural prevention- relaxing on summer grass- being better than artificial cure ie Gastrogard papering over the cracks)On Saturday one of those three variables changes from his jawdropping career best performance, the other two stay the same- a lovely experiment- so logically this is the best chance to find out how ground dependent he is.
BDM’s form tells you at the very least he needs the word soft to appear in the ground description to give him a chance:
On heavy ground from 4 runs he has 3 wins and 1 3rd
On soft ground from 9 runs he has 4 wins, 2 2nds, 2 3rds & 1 unpld (1 win in France on very soft before he came to UK)
On good to soft ground from 9 runs he has 2 wins, 5 2nds, 1 3rd & 1 unpld
On good ground from 3 runs he has 0 wins, 1 2nd & 2 unpldUnlike most, he can cope exceptionally well in deep winter ground but the quicker the ground gets the more vunerable he becomes as it doesn’t inconvenience his rivals enough.
Could be that he & NR (maybe even TC) will take each other on up front and if I was Nico I would probably let them get on with it and sit a little bit off them and try and do them for a turn of foot coming to the last (or even after it) rather than going at it with stronger stayers from 2 or 3 out.
Not only do I see negatives for BDM tomorrow I do for Native River. He’s never won first time out for a start and the only win on good ground was a maiden hurdle round Stratford. Surely he’s going to find it too sharp against the favourite unless he finds improvement.
Might Bite is the best staying chaser in the division at present, he should be at his peak at 9 years of age. Ground is in his favour unlike in last years GC, where he still ran a tremendous race.
Even money should be taken, anything bigger (in the morning perhaps) should be smashed into.
Good luck all.
I’m not sure about Nico ( just back from injury ) taking on Johnson ( riding better than ever ) over these fences. Nico’s yet to record a chase win here, although has only two starts over these fences to his name.
Nico’s an excellent jockey but under these circumstances, I’m beginning to side with Native River.
I’ll see what the actual going is like on the day but they’re currently calling it G, G/S in places
Hi All
I go to Haydock every year for this meeting(don’t live far away) and I’m delighted with the field despite it being only 5 horses. I’ll probably back BDM at 7’s for the reasons already given by Steeplechasing. His course record is impressive and taking into account the ground isn’t as it was for his previous wins here I still think 7/1 is worth a punt. I just wonder if him and NR will go at it up front though and leave it for Might Bite to sweep past after the last!
But at the prices I’ll side with BDM
Fascinating race though and really looking forward to it. Good luck all!
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