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Luxembourg stayed on well to win the Vertem fairly easily. Head carriage isn’t ideal but has a sizable frame to fill in to so should improve at three. However, considering breeding and the way he won today (first to be pushed along before seemingly staying on rather than quickening) looks far more suited by the Derby trip.
If there is a guineas horse today probably Bayside Boy, displayed a good cruising speed before denied a clear run.
Value Is EverythingLuxembourg definitely more of a Derby type GT. I wouldn’t fancy him for the Guineas unless it was very soft (obviously we all take AOB’s comments about “so much natural speed” with a pinch of salt these days). El Bodegon looked good at St Cloud too
Not sure he likes the softer ground. Adele on itv racing pointed it out that his action suggests better ground would suit him. Camelot was best on good/good to soft. I’m sure he has a very high cruising speed but I’m dubious as well as to whether he can win the guineas. I hope they just prepare him for the Derby but the lads will probably go for the guineas first. Will be a better horse next season and reminds a bit of high chaparral.
Camelot’s progeny isn’t that good though is it? Nothing has really stood out from day one. OK, one or two might end up above average but no superstars or season champions. Remember Brentford Hope? I thought he was a potential champion at two but turned out to be mediocre … a nice, smooth traveler with a lacklustre finish. While Luxembourg might or should fare better, he doesn’t strike me as a Guineas nor Derby winner.
Although Luxembourg will ultimately be better at the Derby trip there is nothing to lose from going for the Guineas. Especially if AOB can’t see any other Guineas horse in the yard. However – if fit – I think Point Lonsdale is the better Guineas candidate and biggest threat to the Godolphin duo.
Value Is EverythingPoint Lonsdale looks more a middle distance horse to me. No excuses against Native Trail when Native Trail still looked babyish.
Jesus if you think PL is a faster horse then Luxembourg then good luck with that. Anyone who knows a think or 2 about horses will tell you that his action and his 2 previous runs that he is much better suited to faster going. Let just leave it and see what happens 1st saturday next May. One thing for sure is that Luxembourg is a guineas horse and I would much rather back him at 6 for a trainer who has won the race 9/10 times with first time out horses, than Applesbys. There isn’t much between the 1st 3 in the betting and it all depends on how they progress over the winter.
Wouldnt think luxembourgs a guineas horse myself, did obrien not point to that already? Thought he did, not sure on PL
Will either be able to cope with native trail? I doubt it
For sure Point Lonsdale’s National Stakes second suggests he’ll be better over further, despite travelling reasonably well through the race. National Stakes is 7f, so will be racing over further in the Guineas. Only horse to finish in front of Point Lonsdale at 7f was 2021 Champion 2 year old Native Trail while beating Group 1 winner Ebro River. Yes, I’d expect him to eventually be suited by middle-distances, but the Guineas mile (in May) needs more stamina than mile races further into the season. Sire Australia himself beaten less than 3/4 length in a good Guineas before attentions were switched to middle distances…
Where as Luxembourg does not have such a good action, high head carriage, raced only at 1m and by an even greater stamina influence in Camelot.
Point Lonsdale did not race after the National but – if fit – would imo be Coolmore’s best Guineas candidate.
Value Is EverythingThe 64 million dollar question is who winters the best. With this seasons guineas won by a 16/1 shot and the 1000 guineas by aidens so called second string it won’t be until the beginning of May till we see who is the best on that day. I agree point Lonsdale is the forgotten horse but they will both probably run in the guineas and most likely head to the Derby. It’s over 6 months till the guineas and so much can change in that time.
Pricewise has put up Luxembourg and triple time
He is against native trail thinks he was physically ahead of the other 2yos and the rest will catch up and uses pinatubo as an example
I completely disagree with that comparison though personally, pinatubo was a small compact professional 2yo
Native trail was a big backwards gangly 2yo that took ages to get himself sorted. If he fills that frame he could be a monster. A big horse like him shouldn’t be beating the normal 2yo types really but he did on pure ability to my eye.
The national stakes for instance it took him an age to get himself organised but when he did he took off. In the dewhurst he was the first off the bit but when he got clear and the turbo spooled up he went clear with ease.
I’m on coroebus at a nice price so want him to win but the logic he used to dismiss native trail was wide of the mark imo.
It’s usually a price thing with Segal. And Kealy as well to some extent. Quite often you will there them say the day before the race, “I expect the favourite to win but I’ll be backing/have backed so and so at the prices”.
He is supposed to be “Pricewise” Mike….lol
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I don’t think Charlie Appleby will have the Golden season that he enjoyed last year with his horses but Native Trail will bring home the 2000 Guineas for him.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Coolmore is in a transitional period without the galileos coming through hence godolphin doing well. I’d hope the likes of Johnston,varian or haggas could get involved in more group ones but they don’t seem to have the firepower. I agree Appleby won’t have the same season and the way aidens have been running probably helped by the mild winter means I certainly think they will win the 1000 guineas and have a good chance in the boys equivalent. Until they run you can’t be sure but signs are aidens are ready and he’s won the guineas so many times without a prep run.
Appleby confirms the guineas warm ups for his two stars as the craven for native trail and the greenham for coroebus
Have to say even to my very uneducated eye coroebus looked a stunning big strong horse in the racing TV video
One I’d have in mind for the Sussex stakes and breeders Cup mile, maybe even an eclipse or juddmonte if they want to try 10f
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