April 22, 2019 at 19:34 #1419162
Re MG staying, it is a decent argument on reflection. I still would never back a horse to win as a main bet that’s breaking 20 year trend stats, but I’m happy to be convinced to have a saver on MG. However, okay, lets say MG is a miler and a strong miler as you normally need to be in an Eng Guineas and he’s got no problem getting the trip. He’s also a Group 1 Winner and if he has some of the best 2 year old form on offer, why, as an AOB horse has he been so weak in the market, even now with the race cut up a lot he’s still not that strong? That rarely happens with AOB horses unless they are not that good, no? Mike, interested to know(having backed MG) do you think he will be first or second string for AOB?
Maybe I’m a bit harsh on Persian King then GT, I’m just not that convinced about French horses generally lately, purely a feeling rather than anything I can strongly back up at the moment. Given what you say, if PK was really good though, connections would be more confident he’d win and he would probably go the Eng 2000 right? Winning an Eng 2000 has a bigger value than Fre 2000 for future stud purposes etc or is that not really the case or too simplistic a view? I guess all things being equal, what would they rather win, Eng or Fre Guineas?
Jack, what’s the penalty rules on the Jersey exactly?April 22, 2019 at 19:41 #1419163
Line of Duty really weak on the exchanges and Calyx is still trading at around 17s, surely after JG comments, they won’t re-route him to the Guineas now TDH is out?! Or can they?!!!April 22, 2019 at 19:45 #1419165
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frenchy it doesn’t matter to me if he is first string or second string. Second string AOB horses have won classics before when no 1 jock has picked one that either wasn’t as good as he thought, didn’t stay, or had bad luck in running. To me Ten Sovereigns look like a sprinter and Ryan Moore may be on him due to a ‘sexy profile’ and it wouldn’t bother me if he was. In terms of market support MG is getting some blue on oddschecker at the moment. Tbf I was expecting both AOB horses to be shorter than they are just shows the openness of the race and punters not having a strong view at the moment.
I think I may have selected ok with MG and also Skardu at 25-1 so in with a shout. Time will tell.April 22, 2019 at 20:00 #1419168
Jack, what’s the penalty rules on the Jersey exactly?
James Garfield having to shoulder 9 6 for a G2 win, and glorious journey 9 4 for his G3.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!April 22, 2019 at 20:47 #1419174
Sorry slightly off topic, but Jack, do you know why Expert Eye was not penalised last year in the Jersey for his Group 2 Vintage Stakes win?
Mike, that’s true, but only 1 of AOB’s 9 Eng Guineas winners was a second string and none of the last 7, which would worry me if I was backing MG, but fair enough, you might well be right! Let’s see!April 22, 2019 at 21:47 #1419183
I am not 100% sure why he wasnt Frenchy! Maybe someone else does?
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!April 22, 2019 at 22:11 #1419184
Yes Frenchy, I find your question about Calyx quite interesting
Many or most here already see it as definitive he won’t run, but yet it is notApril 23, 2019 at 10:12 #1419417
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Think the Jersey’s conditions are penalties from 1st September, hence EE getting away with the Vintage win in August.
Hein, Calyx has come in for some support on the Exchange for this in the last 24 hours. Hovering around the 12 mark at the moment.April 23, 2019 at 10:16 #1419418
I know Kev, there’s been a massive move in the right direction.
Many here were too blind to see who is the class horse, but he will make them see, if he is allowed toApril 23, 2019 at 10:55 #1419420
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Maybe that plea letter you wrote to Gosden did work Hein.April 23, 2019 at 14:00 #1419451
Jesus Hein listen to yourself I’ve just basically pointed out your Gosden conspiracy theories are nonsense.
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!April 23, 2019 at 15:04 #1419453
Yes Kev, it probably did
Jack, why are you so arrogant? YOU were talking nonsense , as you already presented it as a fact that Calyx would be out.
I didn’t say anything about a conspiracy, I just know that trainer’s talk is very cheap, which also applies to Gosden. Now his former statements have the value of yesterday’s papers, as he finally realized what a jewel he has with Calyx and how false it would be to push him away to sprinting.
As I said Mr. Abdullah will have a big share to this right decision, as in contrast to Oppenheimer, he hasn’t only got piles of money, but also experience and wisdom as an owner.April 23, 2019 at 15:24 #1419454
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Anyone who’s had a decent AP bet on Calyx will be willing him to run won’t they, I think Hein is just feeling more optimistic about Calyx with the recent betting trends and winding us all up a bit
What would be your second choice Hein if Calyx did’t run?
When you look back at the early pages of this Thread with all the bickering and name calling that went on, a lot of which was unnecessary, deleted by the administrators, and out of which has come virtually nothing that we are discussing today. Its heartening that now we are getting into the race with less than two weeks to go and some really interesting discussions are developing
I doubt there is conspiracy being plotted, although I do love a good mystery but…
John Gosden has only won The Guineas once in its running but he seems to cause more uncertainty and scrambling of markets around his top drawer horses than any other flat racehorse trainer…so much so that you wonder what Calyx and even Kick On have been showing him that TDH has not.
Used to think that AOB was the Prince of smoke and mirrors but I think JG has now crowned himself King.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...April 23, 2019 at 16:27 #1419457
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Even if he does run it will be some feat to win 1st time out in a classic after a long injury absence.April 23, 2019 at 17:20 #1419458
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JG is full of it isn’t he? It was only a month ago he was telling the RP that the horse wasn’t in fast work yet and they were going steady. The man is a top class BS
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