2000 Guineas 2019

I backed Set Piece each way in the Craven, Jac. That’s interesting you think he was a piece of work short. Way he got in to things from the back of the field (easier than Skardu) very encouraging regarding ability. Disapointingly weakened late-on. Was that due to fitness? If so (first run since early January) could indeed run well in the 2000. I’m in two minds though; 60 it’s fitness, 40 trip. By Dansili out of Kingmambo mare (both speedy milers). Three runs to date all been at 1m and although Set Piece “stays” the mile – shows plenty of speed and possible 7f is his trip? If nominating a race he’ll win/go close I’d have to say the stiff 7f of the Jersey. However, is one I was thinking of taking a chance with but have missed the price.

Ditto Royal Marine Jack. I too saw those big prices after the Craven but – after Persian King shortened – thought RM would miss the 2000.

After backing Calyx and Too Darn Hot, think I’d better leave it until NRNB.

I agree with your reasoning on Ten Sovereigns, Frenchy. I’ve backed him for the Commonwealth Cup.

Ten Sovereigns etc, can see the Sire trend is sometimes important, especially when going up to a mile – and even more so going up from 6f – but the trend should surely be ignored when not appropriate. Yes, Magna Grecia is by Invincible Spirit but out of Cabaret who was herself by Galileo. Cabaret won a 7f Group 3 on soft ground as a two year old but was middle-distance bred. Disappointed all starts on firmer ground at three; including when starting 2/1 favourite for the Musidora. There’s imo stamina enough in Magna Grecia’s pedigree to say a mile should be absolutely no problem; but it’ doesn’t just look no problem, it IS no problem. Close second to Persian King in the Autumn Stakes (pair well clear) before winning the Group 1 Vertem Futurity – both at a mile. So – in his case – why should being by Invinvible Spirit matter?

I’ve been quite impressed with what I’ve seen about Jash. He certainly hasn’t done
a lot wrong, and whilst he hasn’t gone beyond 6F, and hasn’t had a prep run
(both a negative in many a book) he strikes me as a horse who might just improve
for the extra furlong, and hopefully two. I know there isn’t a lot of middle
distance form on his Sire and Dam’s side, but his Sire was by Danehill, who
only finished 1 1/2 lengths behind Nashwan in the 2000 Guineas. Admittedly not
too much to crow about on the Dam’s side, but, and at the risk of clutching at
straws, if you go back a couple of generations on the Dam (Miss Aziza) side,
the name Mark Of Esteem stands out. He wasn’t too shabby himself, being a winner
of the 2000 Guineas.

It’s not so much the middle distance winners going back a bit in his pedigree that
impress me, although if he could take a leaf out of their book it wouldn’t do any harm,
it was the way he breezed through his 1st two races, the 2nd with a penalty and he
literally ran away from the field, coasting home by 9L. Admittedly it wasn’t the
strongest race, but then he took on Ten Sovereigns in the Middle park and in no
way was he disgraced. Both he and TS left the rest in their wake, and neither looked
to be running out of gas at the end. He came from widest out and used up a little at
the start to get more central. He only came side to side with TS just over a furlong
out, and with 100 yards to go he was a length down, but was running on well and went
down by a 1/2 length. Maybe it’s just me, but Ten Sovereigns being 5/2 favourite and
Jash being 25/1 (Boylesports) doesn’t give him the credit he deserves. Okay, he hasn’t
gone beyond 6F, but then again neither has TS. In an interview with Simon Crisford in
February he mentions “our 2000 Guineas hope Jash”, and with no mention anywhere of him
heading elsewhere, I have no reason to doubt that this is the target.

I’ve grabbed the 25s, and I think that with the way the race has opened out, then it’s
not the daftest of shouts.

Still no mention about ADVERTISE on here apart from me!! I am already on ay 20/1 and 16/1 and have just backed him again at 12/1.

This horse has solid form. Won his maiden then ran in two group two’s and two group ones and has never been out of the first two!! To me it seems blindingly obvious that he has a major chance and yet everyone if going on about the flashy horses improving and not a mention of my boy!!

Sorry moan over but I do think this horse has a major major chance in the Guineas and the two horses that beat him Calyx and TDH would both have been strongly fancied if they had turned up here!!
Even now 12/1 is too large!

Hi GT, yes that does need some more explanation. I am definitely not one of these people that takes trends by gospel, but they are good to use as a probability measure vs some human input from a knowledge point of view.

It is a fact that MG would break a 20 year trend if he were to win, but of course it is possible and based on the 2yearold evidence he does stay a mile. That’s the key point for me though, he does stay a mile, but can he truly stay a Classic mile against much better horses well enough to win it? I think it’s probably a fair argument to say that there are different 8F races. Yes MG stays a mile as proven, but can he stay a mile at a classic and win it?

AOB said after the Trophy Stakes, “I always thought if MG got a mile we’d be delighted”, suggesting there was definitely some question mark over it.

His Dam, Caberet never won over more than 7F, in fact when she stepped up further, her form was last, 2nd last, 3rd last, 2nd last. Her dam Witch of Fife, also only won over 7F and when she stepped up her form was 2nd last, 3rd last, last. Out of Galileo though obviously and AOB has also said they will see how the Guineas goes before deciding to step up in trip, suggesting now they think he might get further.

So it boils down to using that trend stat with other probability measures and see how it all stacks up and there are some other negatives.

1. His RPR Trophy Stakes rating of 114 is easily the worst rating in the last 10+ years
2. The fact Persian King isn’t being aimed at this is a negative for MG(based on PK beating MG in the Autumn Stakes), as I deduce that Andre Fabre doesn’t think PK is that good.
3. AOB has been talking a lot about Ten Sovereigns for the Guineas, but not so much about MG, which raised my initial doubts before looking deeper. It suggests TS is the number 1 Ballydoyle hope. That means we have to ask ourselves why a very questionable stayer in TS is ahead of MG a Group 1 winner over 8F already. It’s true Second string AOBs win often enough, but it’s probably not as much as people lead themselves to believe.

So, all that, together with the 20 year Sire trend stat has lead me to ruling out MG as the probability of him winning doesn’t seem great, then factor in his price currently and he’s not value at all I don’t think.

(I didn’t see the exchanges for MG, Botchy, but 13/1 that’s crazy. We have to wonder why that is, but an Invincible Spirit Colt winning the Derby? Surely not.)

Talking of the Jersey Stakes, there’s a great stat to look out for in that. The last 7 winners of the Jersey, all ran to reasonable credit in either the Eng/Ire/Fre Guineas without winning partly as their sire index was not high enough(exception was Mustaeeb by Nayef) and none of the last 12 ran over a mile or further @ 2. So I will also watch Jash, Advertise & Mohaather closely in the Guineas, with the Jersey in mind.

I may not agree with it but thanks for the reply, Frenchy.

Magna Grecia’s Futurity winning form may not be outstanding as Group 1/Racing Post Trophies go. But in the context of being just Magna Grecia’s third race and coming less than a month in to the horse’s career (debut 30th September) did well in the circumstances… And given that inexperience has much more scope than the other Doncaster principles of improving on that form at three.

Think you’re doing Persian King a diservice, Frenchy. Connections often want to win the easier race (particularly when the horse is yet to win a Group 1) can’t blame Fabre for staying at home. Although the 2000 Guineas has lost Too Darn Hot, Calyx and Quorto – it still looks a better race than the French Guineas. Fabre is also in mind that the French Derby (10f) is eventually likely to see PK at his very best.

Given experience and strength it generally takes more stamina to stay a mile at two than it does for the same horse to stay a mile as a three year old. That said it’s true if winning just a slowly run two year old race particularly if also in a lesser grade then yes, I agree it is possible the horse won’t stay in a truly run Guineas. However, although just a Group 3 the Autumn Stakes form is some of the best two year old form seen in 2018. Magna Grecia wasn’t stopping at the end of what was a truly run mile. What he did there pretty much proves to me Magna Grecia will be effective at a mile in the Guineas.

I really don’t want to add to Ten Sovereigns here, I have to have confidence that the trip won’t be an issue.

I’ve decided to add Jash at 25-1 each way, I can make a slim case for his chances, and 25-1 seems fair to me.

Line of Duty really weak on the exchanges and Calyx is still trading at around 17s, surely after JG comments, they won’t re-route him to the Guineas now TDH is out?! Or can they?!!!

Jack, what’s the penalty rules on the Jersey exactly?

James Garfield having to shoulder 9 6 for a G2 win, and glorious journey 9 4 for his G3.