2000 Guineas 2019

On pure form Quorto probably put up a better ratings performance in beating Anthony Van Dyk 1 1/4 lengths with a further 4 1/2 back to 3rd Christmas – than Too Darn Hot did in beating Phoenix Of Spain 1 3/4 with 2 1/2 back to 3rd Cardini. However, the second and third were given a lot of rope in a race with slowish early fractions, before the winner’s remarkable turn of foot picked them up with ease. imo Too Darn Hot value for winning by quite a bit further than distances suggest.

Connections may well have given TDH more to do deliberately, in order to see for sure whether he is a 2000 Guineas horse… And well and truly got their answer. Not many horses are capable of the speed Too Darn Hot showed. Certainly fast enough to be fully effective at the Guineas trip. This is where those of us who take note of time have an advantage. Indeed, although I think he’ll probably stay the Derby trip if settling early; that probability has imo lessened with his Champagne performance. Hopefully TDH is a freak and can win both colts classics.

4/1 for the Guineas still seems very fair. That said, Quorto is probably over-priced @ 10/1 too.

We’ve got a great bunch of two year olds this year, five are imo real top class two year olds with at least two having potential to join them. Those five: Too Darn Hot, Calyx, Quorto, Anthony Van Dyk and Ten Sovereigns; Madhmoon and Sangarius the two with potential. Coolmore horses may not be Guineas candidates, one looks a sprinter to me, the other a middle-distance/stayer. Anthony Van Dyk crying out for a run in the Racing Post Trophy, Ten Sovereigns Middle Park. However, although some or all of those mentioned may become 2019 top class three year olds, Too Darn Hot appeals as one who just might be that extra bit special.

Couldn’t agree more Ginge, the change of pace TDH showed was incredible. Massive player in the guineas and hopefully, for quite a few of us, he’ll go on to stay well enough for the Derby.

Quorto i thought was impressive also but didn’t show anywhere near the same pace and won more in the style of a future Derby prospect than Guineas. AVD would be my early early Leger hoss, looks a right boat.

Very exciting 2YOs the last few months and there is probably a few lurking still to come also
Don’t forget King Of Comedy, Phoenix Of Spain franked his maiden form nicely again behind TDH on Saturday – just hope whatever is wrong with him isn’t too bad.

Info on King Of Comedy –

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/horseracing/7249461/sandown-king-of-comedy-dewhurst-racing-post-trophy-john-gosden/

TDH given a 121p by timeform after Saturdays win, up three pounds

With Gosden’s 2000 Guineas record, 4/1 would not be appealing to me, particularly with other contenders queuing up.

Charlie Appleby is adamant Quorto is a Guineas horse if anything and if the colt does run again this season it will be in the Dewhurst.

King Of Comedy will be at a bit of a disadvantage if he does run in the Dewhurst or Racing Post Trophy. Even if there has been no injury setback, it wouldn’t have been the plan to come into Group 1 races with just one run in the bag. It could be a lot to ask a horse from the Too Darn Hot yard to take on his stablemate. i would have thought something a bit easier would be a better option.

Persian King looks criminally underrated to me on 102 RPR. He tracked Lone Peak and effortlessly pulled five lengths clear in the closing stages. The Racing Post assessor is tinkering with the horse’s ratings from his earlier races and he allotted Freddy Head’s Lone Peak ZERO improvement from his first run. Lone Peak kept on well enough to be clear second and it seems unlikely to me that he did not improve from his 7 length debut. I rate Persian King at least 110. The horse is a big, easy moving colt who can stretch. 25/1 is value in my opinion.

Problem Racing Post have in rating Persian King “110 to 115” is the third and fourth Kenbaio and Katdar seem to have exposed previous form. Kenbaio’s previous two ratings 84 and 85; they’ve again rated his performance 84 for Sunday which in turn means (given distaces won by) they can rate Persian King 102. Racing Post don’t seem to show Katdar’s other form, but he too seems exposed at a similar level to Kenbaio. So if Persian King has put up a rating of 115 then they’d have to rate the seemingly previously exposed Kenbaio and Katdar as improving a lot and roughly the same (large) amount – around 13 lbs higher – which seems unlikely imo. However, I agree Racing Post could’ve given Persian King two or three pounds more than they have (for ease of victory) and… Remains a horse with bags of potential for further improvement – on future starts could reach 115 or more. Am sure Timeform will keep the “p” against his name.

It would be nice if RP added a feature like Timeform have to show expected improvement etc.

I know RPRs are more of a rating for that specific race, but they could work something out i am sure.

In today’s racing post….

Teddy Grimthorpe, racing manager to owner Khalid Abdullah, said: “Kingman’s first Group winner was, of course, Calyx, who has been out injured since he won the Coventry Stakes, but the good news is that Calyx is on the way back – he’s no lost cause and I’m hopeful of his prospects for next season.”

Good to hear some positive noises….

One things for sure I could never back a JG horse for the Guineas. You look at Ravens Pass Kingmans and even RL from this yr to tell you that for some reason JG just can’t get it right come Guineas day.

You’re basing that theory on very little, Newyork.
Is John Gosden’s record really that bad? How many horses have actually ran badly? Haven’t most Gosden horses in both Guineas ran as expected/to form and most that have not run well had a reason? Why should the 2000 Guineas be any different to any other Group 1 during the season? Gosden’s horses in general come to hand just as early/late as any other trainer. His record in Guineas trials and other races tells you that. So most of his horses come to hand early enough for the Guineas.

John Gosden hasn’t had many Guineas winners, in fact no 2000 Guineas winners and just Lahan in the 1000. However, he has had four other fillies placed – three in the last 10 years. Lahan a Rockfell winner won the Guineas @ 14/1 after a below form 5th on unsuitable very soft ground when 9/4 favourite in the Nell Gwyn. Daban a 5/1 shot was 2¼ lengths 3rd behind Winter. Maqaasid a 22/1 3rd behind the cheat Zarooni’s Blue Bunting. On very soft ground 33/1 shot Starscope split O’Brien’s Homecoming Queen and Maybe – second – with another one of Gosden’s, The Fugue 22/1 (on only her second career start) needing further and better ground in fourth – both fillies running well considering expectations/circumstances.

Valentine Waltz an 11/1 third in 1999, only going down by ½ length and short head. Doing better than could reasonably be expected. Daban, Maqaasid, Valentine Waltz and year 2000 winner Lahan (who did not run again) all putting up career best Timeform performance ratings.

Karen’s Caper 6/1 was 3¾ lengths fourth in 2005, running as well as she did when winning the Nell Gwyn. Although improved afterwards (as many horses do during their 3 year old career, particularly a big sort like her) in the Coronation Stakes in getting within a short head of Maids Causeway (1¼ lengths ahead of KC at Newmarket). Winning the Nell Gwyn in itself means Gosden was able to get her ready.

Infallible 7/2 only beaten 1¼ lengths by Natagora on only her 3rd career start and may have done better had she not raced a little freely on the outside of the field.

Incidentally, John Gosden has won the Nell Gwyn 5 times, with Valentine Waltz, Karens Caper, Infallible, Nathra and Daban. Far more successful than any other trainer in that time, so if Gosden can get them ready for the Nell Gwyn in mid-April, for what reason can’t he get them ready for the Guineas?

Indeed, if John Gosden can’t get them ready in time for the Guineas, which of those fillies should have done better?

According to Timeform Racehorses Of 2006; Possibly importantly in Gosden’s first Spring back in Newmarket Nannina was reported in mid-April to be “backward in her coat and yet to do any serious work”; could only manage 12th of 13 at 7/1. So yes she probably was not ready, although Timeform do say she “looked forward enough in the paddock”. Equally though; it was also the softest ground she faced and considered a top-of-the-ground filly. Won the Coronation Stakes and other Group races on a much firmer surface. So even had she been fully fit probably would not have run to form in the Guineas.

Rainbow View was perhaps the only Gosden filly with form to win a Guineas. Odds-on favourite when 5th in 2009. I had 10/1 about the bleedin’ thing! It is interesting that of all the above fillies only Nannina and Rainbow View did not have a trial. However, if her poor 1000 Guineas performance was down to the trainer being unable to get her fit in time, why was she also below form in her next three starts too? Does Gosden need four runs and/or three months to get a horse fit? Not getting back to her 2 year old form until a good 2¼ lengths second to Midday in the Nassau before winning the Matron.

Judged on Ran To Form figures, John Gosden has done far better than most at this meeting. Won four of the last five Pretty Polly Stakes at the same meeting, Taghrooda, Jazzi Top, Swiss Range and Lah Ti Dar. Also won the Jockey Club Cup with Bronze Cannon, Dahlia with Izzi Top, Newmarket Stakes with Presenting, etc. Taking 2000 Guineas day as the middle of a two week period – Gosden had 14 winners from 44 runners in 2018, that’s a 32% strike rate compared to this season’s overall 27% SR.

John Gosden hasn’t had many good chances to win the 2000 Guineas:

Undoubtedly Ravens Pass did not give his running when 4th to Henrythenavigator in 2008. But (similar to Roaring Lion) he wasn’t so straightforward a ride that he became later on. Edgy in the paddock for the Craven and racing freely, came there to win that race before apparently outstayed by Twice Over. Also drawn furthest from the stand rail (where they raced) in the Guineas – not ideal for a horse that (at that time in his development) could pull hard. So understandably dropped out last and brought towards the rail to settle him. Pace wasn’t exactly slow but not good either. Having to make ground in the fastest sectional while those in front were also quickening – far from ideal. Also having to come around all bar one rival as New Approach and Henrythenavigator had no trouble coming up/near the stand rail. Although Ravens Pass briefly looked a threat, not surprising his effort petered out. In the circumstances value for being much nearer than the 4½ lengths winning margin. Unsurprisingly getting within ¾ length of the O’Brien horse at Royal Ascot next time out

25/1 shot Fencing 6 lengths 6th in the 2011 2000 Guineas, doing as well as could be expected. A dodgepot; in 19 runs afterwards he won just once – a listed race. Ran to form when managing to place in a poor Dante won by Bonfire, 4¾ lengths 3rd.

Iceman was fairly short @ 7/1; but ran 13th of 19. Returned lame on very firm ground in 2005, off course over a year afterwards and never seen at his best again.

Pembroke 20/1 in 1993 also finished lame in last place. In the same race, 20/1 shot Emperor Jones finished one place behind the horse he’d struggled to beat a short head when winning the Craven.

Exeat a 20/1 shot ran as well as could be expected/right up to his best when beaten just 4½ lengths in the 1999 edition.

Also 20/1, on only fourth start (big horse with scope) and yet to become the top class racehorse (and sire) Cape Cross couldn’t cope when 10½ lengths 8th.

Muhtarram on his fourth start ran a then career best in 1992; only just over 2½ lengths behind Rodrigo De Triano.

Why was Kingman beaten?
Gosden in absolutely fantastic form early in 2014, I remember being at the Friday/Saturday Greenham meeting where Kingman won the feature. Johnny G ran away with 7 of the 15 races. When the 2000 Guineas came around although the trainer wasn’t in bad form (Taghrooda won the Pretty Polly) it wasn’t as good as a few weeks earlier. They also split in two at Newmarket – Australia and Toormore on one side, Kingman and Night Of Thunder on the other. Not easy for Doyle to know who was in front and after travelling with ease through the race arguably (but understandably) went for home too early. Night Of Thunder then stayed on the better whilst hanging over to the other side; leaving Kingman nothing to race with in the final 50 yards. The Gosden horse going down by ½ length.
So may be trainer form – the two groups splitting – going for home when he did – and racing alone – all had something to do with Kingman’s defeat?
However, in my opinion stamina was by far the main issue. Because three year olds are still getting towards their physical peak – a mile in early May is a greater test of stamina than a mile later on in the year… especially a strongly run mile like the 2014 Guineas. Gosden doesn’t usually run his best Guineas horses at Newbury; usually taking in a Newmarket trial. Did they go to Newbury because it was 7f (compared to the Craven mile) and didn’t want to go up to a mile immediately/on reappearance? 2000 Guineas Kingman’s first start at a mile and a totally different test to the fair paced 7f Greenham, or indeed all his other starts. In contrast to the Guineas, although the Irish 2000 was run on soft ground it was very slowly run – not testing stamina and Kingman able to show his customary turn of foot. Probably no coincidence St James Palace, Sussex and Marois victories all slowly run affairs – not testing stamina anything like Newmarket… Not only that – but Kingman also showed amazing sectionals in those races, sectionals which would’ve seen him Champion Sprinter if racing in that sphere. So make no mistake – Kingman’s greatest asset when racing at a mile was speed – not stamina – and the only race in 2014 to test stamina at the mile was the Newmarket 2000 Guineas.

Unlike most of Gosden’s Guineas horses, Roaring Lion ran poorly in his trial when 9 lengths 3rd to Masar in the Craven. Short head behind White Mocha. (Turned the form around by 11 lengths when both horses later ran in the Dante). However, although a top class two year old it’s important to realise he was not straightforward. Gave the Racing Post away – quickened from last to first before idling in front and hanging left-handed; handing Saxon Warrior the Doncaster race. So Roaring Lion still learning in the Craven… And although he’d won on 2 year old debut it was nothing out of the ordinary (for what he became); form only good enough for third or fourth in many races of its type. Improved quite a lot second career start. Some horses need their first start of the season both physically and/or mentally (nothing to do with who the trainer is). Like at two, RL came on a lot for his first start of the season. His 2000 Guineas far from a bad effort, 4th somewhere near Racing Post Trophy form… But it could have been better! As said earlier, known to hang left-handed; therefore understandably Oisin tracked Masar in a group of just three nearer the stand side (left) rail. Everything initially went well but the main group raced towards the middle and Masar gradually went towards them. Looking a danger to all inside the final two furlongs, Oisin staying on or near the rail and once the false rail ended, Roaring Lion again went a little further left – away from the other runners. Horses are pack animals, some are natural leaders and some natural followers. So having nothing to race with wouldn’t have been a problem for front/prominent runners, but he is (or was at that time) an immature hold up sort/ used to being around other horses… Just as some horses from other trainers are immature hold up sorts. Roaring Lion possibly took time coming to hand because that’s the type of horse he was. Also may well have run right up to his then best without idling out on his own. Nowadays he’s the finished article and no longer hangs left under pressure; a better horse in September than he was in May, just like many Ballydoye horses.

So what about Calyx and Too Darn Hot?
Calyx may have had only two races and will only be having his fourth run (at most) in the Guineas… and the fact he’s so far only raced at 6f – both not ideal. May be he won’t have the experience to settle at a mile. But the level of form shown in both first and second starts that early in the season is outstanding. So seems to have matured sooner than either Roaring Lion or Ravens Pass. Dettori at pains to teach Too Darn Hot in all his races so far. Different type to Kingman, Raven’s Pass or Roaring Lion, TDH has none of the stamina or temperament doubts of those three.

John Gosden’s Ran To Form percentage in the two Guineas’s is probably as good as anyone. Even Aidan O’Brien has horses who prove either not ready. eg Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman in the same race Guineas only 4th and 5th before improving in to two of the best horses of their generation. Some just disappoint eg Air Force Blue and War Command. US Navy Flag and Power didn’t even run; former disappointing in a prep and taking races to bring him on before winning the July Cup. Latter missing Newmarket before winning the Irish Guineas… And there are others. But Ballydoyle have far more runners/fancied horses (and therefore winners) than Gosden who’s more known for his middle-distance three year olds (because he has more of them). So when Johnny G has a Kingman or Rainbow View – people notice losses more than they do AOB.

Most of Gosden’s Guineas horses have run as well as expected/to form and both Calyx and Too Darn Hot have an excellent chance if running as expected/to form.