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Was referring to the horse in behind steve, shaman who was 2nd in a listed previously, i wasnt clear in what i said, what i meant was the form in behind him probably isnt upto much as the listed races there are usually poor enough, but he couldnt really have been more impressive
Hmmmm, I’m confused.
With Persian King, the issue is more about only raising him 8 lbs from his debut run. I think that is nonsense myself. How far does he need to win by to get a decent rise?
So earlier you were saying the analyst got it wrong when rating Persian King as improving only 8 lbs, Steve. Because in your opinion the second run was worth a far greater rating than his debut.
Now the analyst rates the debut run even higher and therefore only improving 2 lbs from first to second start.
If you’d rated the first performance how it should’ve been, then surely you’d have been arguing for a smaller rise than 8 lb?
It is Persian King’s debut run that can be rated higher.In the case of Persian King’s debut, not only has winner Anodor won a Group 3, but also the 5 lengths 3rd that day Prince Hamlet subsequently won a maiden by 4 lengths. So it is fair to raise the overall ratings of that maiden.
If Persian King’s second start rivals subsequent efforts suggest the form can be raised then the form can be raised. However (and this is important) none of Persian King’s rivals from his second start have run subsequently, therefore no option but to rate the race on everyone’s previous form… And given his rivals current standard of form it is understandable that for now a cautious opinion has been taken of that race.
Everyone knows Persian King has great potential to improve in to a Group horse. However, if going on to win the Royal Lodge does not necessarily make the form of his second start any better.
ie Roaring Lion also won his Kempton maiden by six lengths from Compliance.
Roaring Lion then went on to win the Royal Lodge.
That does not mean Roaring Lion’s Kempton race can then be rated highly, because Compliance’s form keeps the performance rating down. ie Roaring Lion’s Maiden win must always be rated on beating Compliance by 6 lengths whatever Roaring Lion went on to achieve. Just as if Persian King went on to win the Royal Lodge his second start must always be rated as beating Boardman 6 lengths.Value Is EverythingI’ve got quite a bit on Calyx for this @ 20/1, but given his problems and the fact Gosden has a very viable rival have laid him @ 9/1 to get back half my original stake. Already on Too Darn hot for the Derby at big price, but the more I look at that second run the more I think he’s going to be fully effective at a mile in the Guineas. Have backed Too Darn Hot @ 7/1.
Hope Gosden isn’t hit by a virus come the Spring.
Value Is EverythingToo Darn Hot has opened at an average of 4/7 Fav for the Champagne Stakes on Saturday.
Dark Vision varies greatly, from Coral on 7/2 and Paddy Power on 8/1. I am with Paddy Power here and Coral need to get Dark Vision pushed out from 7/2 or they won’t take a penny piece on him.
The Vintage Stakes simply compares very badly with the Solario. Dunkerron was runner up to Dark Vision but he stank the place out at Sandown. Even if we ignore that run, Vintage Stakes 3rd Confiding was beaten more than 4 lengths further by Too Darn Hot, than he was by Dark Vision and the fact of it is that Confiding is by far the best performance to emerge from that Vintage Stakes since.
Mark Johnston is bullish about Dark Vision but the form of that Vintage Stakes looks weak now. 7/2 is laughable for me, when there is 8/1 to be had elsewhere. Dark Vision’s previous race has thrown up some winners but nothing worth getting excited about unless you like looking to Thirsk and Wolverhampton for quality 2YO’s.
I liked the look of Quorto but his form hasn’t been working out and I feel a mile is what he probably needs in the search for improvement. 21 runners have come from Quorto’s two races since and the number to win has been zero, zilch, nil, nixy, nada, hee haw, SFA and a big fat duck. Considering that was a Group 2 Quorto won, it’s bitterly disappointing and the only thing superlative about that race was the race title. I am concerned about his form and this time I feel it’s Paddy Power who are way short on 7/2 Quorto and Sky Bet seem much more on the mark with 13/2, considering the form of Quorto has pretty much zero franking.
Phoenix Of Spain got a kick in the baws the way Watan ran next time and neither of his two wins has worked out well. I’m not a Charlie Hills follower either, so he’s an easy pass for me in the Champagne.
I think Too Darn Hot will win but rather than back him at 4/7 or so, I would think there was better value in backing him for the 2000 Guineas and Derby at 6/1 and then selling him back in the aftermath of a win, when his odds will surely be skinny.
“Buy for a dollar, sell for two”
Prop Joe The Wire
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Agree with you, Steve.
I do think both Appleby and Johnston would be mad to go for this Doncaster Group 2 though, when they’re entered for a much easier to win Group 1 the following day in Ireland. So may be the massive difference in prices for those two represents some bookies believing they won’t run and enticing punters in.Value Is EverythingTaken from ATR’s stable tour with Appleby:
“He will go to Ireland for the National Stakes next. He won the Superlative and is a progressive horse who deserves a crack at the National Stakes. He is ready for the step up to Group 1 company and his preparation is going well. It was always the plans to give him a bit of a break after the Superlative and we are looking forward to testing his class stepping up to Group 1 company.”
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I think it’s wise avoiding Too Darn Hot. A good win from the Gosden horse sees him short for the Guineas.
The trouble with him going Guineas first is that the question will arise whether he will stay, should he have the pace for a Guineas. Is the Guineas or Derby the more important race to win for connections?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Madhmoon had a nice way about him when picking up to win his maiden.
i think he looked fit and ready that day though so I would like to see how much he comes on from that debut race in this week’s run.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Too Darn Hot has had a couple of very fragile relatives (excluding the dam herself who handled a more active campaign). Given the quick turnaround from the Solario – a colossal effort for a 2 y-o coupled with such a pedigree I wonder whether connections will consider a premature retirement. Not saying this is probable but it is something to bear in mind. Teofilo has proved successful (for all his progeny are sometimes fragile) as a sire despite no campaign at 3.
In my view, their aggressive campaigning of him suggests his trainer has no worries in relation to his robustness. He hasn’t had to run on really quick ground yet which has probably also helped.
Anyone have any views on Sangarius? I was pretty impressed with him yesterday and given how green and raw he is I’m guessing there is a hell of a lot more to come once the penny drops. He is a magnificent looking beast.
I was quite impressed with Sangarius, Bobby. Competition wasn’t great tbh, form isn’t yet in the same league as Too Darn Hot and Ten Sovereigns… and owner companion Calyx come to that. But undoubtedly has a lot of potential. Early pace seemed fairly slow which wasn’t conducive to a long winning distance or overall fast time. However, despite still green quickened up to win fairly easily. Stoutey doesn’t rush his two year olds so whatever Sangarius does at two should do better at three. One thing that didn’t impress me was his rounded action; wonder whether he’ll take much racing on a firm surface.
Although there was plenty of promise in Sangarius, point about Too Darn Hot is he has potential to improve and yet his form is already not far off what’s needed to win an average Guineas and/or Derby.
Value Is EverythingSUper impressive from too darn hot, i really see him as a guineas horse and not a derby horse, he looks so fast to my eye, johnston and dark vision,
I took the 6-1 before the race. Have Calyx at 8s also. Gosden has a couple of good uns.
For me, Too Darn Hot keeps winning like a stayer.
Yes, he gets there but his main rival in the Champagne Stakes ran like a crab and I thought it was a typical example of Mark Johnston overrating his horses and picking the wrong race to progress the horse’s career.
Yet again the trainer was Bullish but it turned out to be Bull***t in the end. An easy lay for me from the start and I am still shaking my head at Coral going 7/2 Dark Vision when betting opened and there was still a decent sized field potentially.
Yet again, over in France Persian King dots up by five lengths, showing a sharper turn of speed to the Guineas favourite. The son of Kingman used his big frame and elastic stride to stretch away and put the race to bed in a matter of strides. There was a rare ease to his victory and he is France’s best 2YO for me by some way. I reckon he will gain revenge over Anodor in the Lagardere and prove better value than some of those in a ridiculously priced Guineas.
These bookies odds compilers are getting a stiffy over almost anything that moves and pricing them up like Group 1 winners for winning an egg and spoon race.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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