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Turgenev looks another smart 2yo for JG- probably more a 10f or 12f horse…
The ammo he has released this year has been scary + to think he can’t win the 2000G
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!Well we shall see next May then.
How are we judging, newyork? It’s hardly a fair fight if one of the two has to win. Nowhere near a fair Evens/50% combined chance.
Too Darn Hot currently 4/1 and Calyx 9/1. So taking bookmakers mark ups off those prices suggests bookmakers believe it’s around a fair 11/4 shot 27% chance one of those two will win. ie 73% fair 4/11 chance neither will win.
imo One will place.
Value Is EverythingI think while Anthony van dyk will be better over further I think his stamina will come into play if its soft next may. I can see him reversing form with quorto over a mile and he looks the value bet to me of course assuming aiden sends him over. I’m sure if he doesn’t have a prep race then ballydoyle will fancy him to go close.
Can’t fathom why ten sovereigns isn’t higher in the betting considering he’s had two pieces of work in his races. Assuming he stays the mile I can’t see gosdens pair beating him. Always wary when we seem to have a cracking crop of two year olds then it doesn’t tend to shape up that way. Wouldn’t surprise me if there isn’t a couple of really cracking prospects at ballydoyle, gosden or haggas not seen out yet or had one low key run. Especially looking forward to Australias progeny. Think they will improve hugely from two to three.
That’s the point about Ten Sovereigns though , Mickey; given the way he travels so easily through his races at six furlongs, imo strongly suggests he’d be fully effective at 5f – breeding is generally of a sprinter too. So is imo unlikely to get a mile.
…And although dam’s side of pedigree is quite fast, the way Anthony Van Dyk races – being pushed along early to go the pace – suggests to me he takes more after sire Galileo when it comes to trip. Be best at middle-distances next year. Yes, if it’s very soft in the Guineas and stamina is at a premium might have a chance – but how likely is that?
Value Is EverythingNothing about Avd screams soft grd horse. Infact his 2 most impressive displays were on good to firm going. For me he needs fast grd to show his best not soft
See boys in blue have chickened out of the dewhurst with the national stakes winner which is a shame.
Nothing about Avd screams soft grd horse. Infact his 2 most impressive displays were on good to firm going. For me he needs fast grd to show his best not soft
The “impressive displays” were in lesser quality contests.
AVD probably acts on both a firm and a soft surface, newyork. It’s just that soft ground places far more emphasis on stamina than firm… And for AVD to be effective in the Guineas suspect he’ll need the emphasis well and truly on stamina.Value Is EverythingBoth trainer and jockey did state that AVD wasn’t suited by the yielding ground when he just beat Christmas at the Curragh….whilst i know what you- soft ground helping bring in stamina- the trainer and jockey comments suggest he might not enjoy it still.
P.S. Sorry to comment shortly after you newyork1
but i am guessing you will be ok with this comment as i am agreeing with you partly.Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!I wouldn’t take too much notice of talk coming out of Ballydoyle.
Although beaten by Quorto last time out, AVD put up one of the best performances seen all season by a two year old. I backed him for the Derby on the strength of it. So hope he is even better on firmer ground. But AOB/Coolmore always have an excuse whenever one of theirs is beaten and seemed to move perfectly well on soft ground to me. When have they ever admitted one of theirs goes well/might even be best on soft going or that he doesn’t have enough speed? This is a prospective stallion.
Value Is EverythingThey said it after he won on yielding ground though. Granted you could argue they’ve said that to cover up the fact he didn’t win impressively, but he probably didn’t improve much when beating Christmas- so i’d argue Moore’s comment could be taken a little more straight on that occasion.
Agree i thought he ran impressively vs Quorto and even at a mile i’d be interested in watching them face off again.
Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!AOB will no doubt say “He’s a very very fast horse but has good stamina also”. If he’s that fast horse enter him in the Kings Stand and see what happens.
AVD has Derby written all over him. I’m not convinced he’s fast enough for a Guineas especially compared to the Calyx, Ten Sovereigns et al.
I’m on him for the Derby and given Ballydoyle’s record in the classics 12-1 is a sound bet.
In my view, which is based on nothing more than my observations over the years, is that those Ballydoyle horses with classic credentials tend to be suited to good ground, not good-to-firm and not good-to-soft but I would argue they’re more suited to good-to-soft than good-to-firm.
True be told none of us know what ground the horse prefers – there’s only one way of finding out.
Surely Frankie will be on TDH. Had some 8s Quorto to add to the 6s I got on TDH as the probable main rival.
Hype hype hype
We will see what Too Damn Hot does against Calyx.
I suspect not too much..Problem I got with Calyx is that I can’t think of a horse that missed most of the season as a 2yo injured then winning a 2000 guineas.
but i am guessing you will be ok with this comment as i am agreeing with you partly.
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