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I backed Desert Flower @ 4/1 ante-post (on my thread).
Done a 100% book for day of race betting and the value now is….Nothing!
Not one horse is more than one price greater than my idea of its fair value.I’ve worked it out as Desert Flower having exactly the same as the combined chance of Lake Victoria and Red Letter.
…And Desert Flower + Duty First have a combined 50.5% chance…
…While Lake Victoria + Red Letter + Duty First also = 50.5%.
…With the other six horses having just a 7.5% chance between them.Value Is EverythingFlight 40-1 ew
I like her breeding, and she’s a big lump who should hopefully have trained on. Stable in reasonable form too.
Mike – That is what I am afraid of as I am not sure she has that much in hand to come into a race that undercooked because if they really think she will come on that much then it might have been more prudent to give her the extra time and start her season off in the Irish 1000 instead.
At the moment Lake Victoria’s odds are fairly stable with bookmakers and betfair at around 5/2.
In recent years AOB horses at this time of year(not just Guineas runners) have mostly been needing their first run. Especially when compared to Appleby… Was the reason I backed Desert Flower when Lake Victoria was ante-post fav… On pure “form” the two fillies should be roughly the same odds, so even @ 5/2 it suggests she’ll need it a bit. The probability of Desert Flower running to form is far greater than Lake Victoria hence the difference in price.
More so than the trainer’s words, the market will tell whether the filly is ready or not. If remaining around 5/2 then she’ll be fairly fit but not fully fit. If shortening to around the same odds as the fav then she’ll probably be fit enough to run to her best. If drifting from 5/2 then it’ll look ominous for her chances.
I have now saved on Lake Victoria just in case.Value Is EverythingMarket doesn’t always get it right as I believe Expanded was backed into 5-1 (from an opening price of 13-2) and we all saw how well that went yesterday.
I think she is the best horse in the race but rushing a preperation to make a G1 race (especially first time out where you might not be fully fit) can also do a fair bit of damage to a horse (see St Nicholas Abbey circa the 2010 2000g who took almost a year to run again following the race).
I’ll try a small wager on
Elwateen 22/1 (BOG)
Added Hey Boo each way 40s(BOG)
Best of luck to all
Of course the market doesn’t always get it right, LD. But unfortunately we cannot bet after the race has finished. I am NOT saying Lake Victoria won’t win if she drifts or remains roughly the odds she is now. What I am saying is that on “form” Lake Victoria has around the same chance of winning as Desert Flower. Perhaps with Desert Flower only slightly shorter. Therefore, if both horses were thought fit and well I’d expect the odds to be that way… And these owners are betting people… And am sure bookmakers know from betting patterns on accounts a few punters who know which Ballydoyle horses are fit. Knowing her form is so much better than 5/2, if the right people back Lake Victoria her price will shorten. If they do not back her then she will drift.
Make no mistake:
If “the lads” BELIEVE Lake Victoria in A1 condition her SP will be considerably shorter.
If they BELIEVE Lake Victoria fairly fit she will remain around the 5/2 mark.
If they BELIEVE Lake Victoria will come on a lot for the run she will drift to 3/1 and possibly more… And Desert Flower’s odds will shorten because the pair’s form is so much better than the rest.
But the important word here is “believe”. “The lads” do sometimes get it wrong and therefore Lake Victoria could still win if drifting. Just means she is less likely to win, which has to be taken into consideration in the odds I am willing to take.
Personally, when so unsure on a horse’s fitness like this I might back it as a saver. Rarely as a main bet.Value Is EverythingDuty First was very impressive last time, responding well to the whip. 13s ew looks fine to me.
Favourites don’t have a great record in this. Chantilly Lace has only won a Class 4 2yo event but being trained by Ralph Beckett he must see something, 16-1
The more I know the less I understand.
Fan of Lake Victoria from last year so hope her California experience indicates she has the grit for this. No bet though.
Well done on those with the prices on the top 2
Chantilly Lace is interesting but at a similar price I think Duty First is a bigger than I thought she would be after the last raceGaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Simmering in my opinion should be bigger than current price of 28-1, but I’ve decided to bet her ew anyway
I’ve now had a saver on Duty First, Nathan.
Am a bit concerned the ground will be too firm for her, but as you say she was fairly impressive at Newbury.Breeding – a half sister to Ten Sovereigns by Lope De Vega – makes Chantilly Lace interesting. But the ground is also a question mark and has had only one run in a Salisbury minor event where she does not even come out the best horse in that race. Has a lot of potential but has to make a massive amount of improvement in order to win. Personally I would want a three figure price… Bloody good looking filly though, can see her making into a Group 1 filly in time.
Value Is Everything
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