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Barbers Shop – Not good enough is he?
Good luck guys and gals.
Probably not but at least he’s an unknown quantity and anythings possible. i Just hope its a good race with a decisive result rather than carnage where we are none the wiser afterwards.
Overall race times often "suggest" (to those who wish to interpret them in this manner) that a horse is no good when all it reflects is that the overall time itself was no good.
I used the above method for a period of time and applied it to the all weather. It was frustrating to say the least; until we had the proper paced racing days when winners grew on trees. with the poorer animals i found i knew what they can do not when they were going to do it. On the other hand i knew the ones that were very unlikely to ever do it! But without a large enough bank and total faith in my findings i wasn’t about to start laying on betfair. As i have stated many times i am a "small" fun mug punter with an interest in horseracing/results, i am not a horsey person..
UN
The going allowances for the 2 races show a difference of 0.3 secs per furlong; i.e.the races you are using for your comparison had a difference in the ground of 4.8 seconds for the 2m trip.
I’m not defending RP speed figures, but there is a clear discrepancy of more than 2 seconds between the 2 times when g/a are taken into account.
I would remind you that you were the one who said MM had never clocked a decent figure, if your sole basis is official going descriptions, then we seriously are from different worlds.If the figures are right i stand corrected. Same planet different beliefs although i share your scepticism of RP speedfigures.
IMO weight is relevent but not to the degree accepted by the "Industry". As a rather obese person, i know it does make a difference; on tarmac the difference is less than on grass or in extreme boggy mud (walking the dog )
I therefore conclude the same for horses. I would say though even then some horses can carry weight better than others. (there goes my machine theory).I notice only one run over C&D and that was 13 seconds faster off 3lbs lower. So maybe those extra three pounds today slowed him down over 50 lengths according to your logic…………
The Paddy Power was run over a different course (the old course) and a different distance (half a furlong shorter).
Thats cruel you’re using real facts
Not thick UN; just from a different planet – if you accept official going as a basis for your views.
So what if both going assessments were wrong and the going was similar? the maths just don’t add up. I’m not from spaceform.org
i am just interested in speedratings!I am also not anti MM i just can’t fathom where these "wonder horse" ratings come from, VPU IMHO is not a consistent enough yardstick.
I heard his ramblings that night, but i was irritated because if he is right the academic approach is in effect totally random.
What i am trying to say is; if James is right, my quest to find the key is infinite.
I think Exotic will be thereabouts but i feel its a professional bridesmaid, I’ll go for Barbers shop as a watching bet.
1.Barbers Shop
2.Exotic Dancer
3.Madison Du BerlaisI wanted the 20/1 (big three unplaced) on skybet but that was only 16/1 last look.
i’m not trying to put anyone off anything or wish bad luck on any participant but the form is so yoyoish i’m scratching around for a fun punt. Beware those outsiders methinks? not long to go
UN
Those who denigrate MM’s win from last season might also care to study the evidence of the clock, which shows his win was every bit as imperious as it seemed. In thrashing VPU by 19l, he ran a s/f of 185, ( VPU himself ran a figure within 6lbs of his highest ever achieved at 2m), certainly the highest of the 08 festival, and probably the highest ever recorded in recent times ( 7 points higher than even Denman’s outstanding performance).
I’m a bit thick, RH cos when i see
VPU clock 353.88same CD and official l going
for 159 &
MM clock 355.80 for a 185 i naturally presume someone’s not very good at maths???????????i personally don’t think either will finish the race, Denman Pulled up Kauto maybe fall after not getting away with one. Neptune? just don’t fancy that either. Exotic (not McCoys year) Madison too far ahead of Denman & co last time!!!(too wierd that race) The Queen might have a good day probably have a watching punt on that. A very interesting renewal for the wrong reasons?
I’m probably talking garbage!!!
i don’t understand this NH game but what exactly has MM beaten apart from VPU who has inclined to have a few not so good uns. Theres nothing special on the clock, never really been asked to dig deep and battle, what if the race is not run to suit and he has to battle. All that said the oppo is not that strong but give the hype a rest and as for these ratings well, we’ve all seen horses with wonderfull ratings before. Should win but i hope something makes a race of it for the viewers.
I don’t disagree with you to an extent. Master Minded has no opposition of any quality to beat. Regardless of what anyone says Voy Por didn’t run his race in last years Champion Chase and other than him Master Minded has beaten nothing that is a genuine Grade 1 horse. Thats why I don’t class him as automatically superior to Moscow Flyer who had Azertyuiop and an at peak Well Chief to contend with.
That said Master Minded can do nothing more than slam his second rate opposition.
After VPU again today is his form reliable enough, the first race was nearly 2 seconds faster and the ground must have been drying out. When MM does a biggy on the clock i’ll believe the MM hype.
Willie Mullins ran 8 horses in the Champion Bumper today which was 1/3 of the field.
Whilst no one can deny his record of winning this race in recent years by having 8 runners in one race it raises some questions.
(4) Should there be a limit on the number of entries from one trainer?
If one was applied that would give other trainers and owners the chance to run at Cheltenham.
(5) What did Willie Mullins say to all his 8 different owners today?
Well I wish you all the best but I have not got a clue who will be the likely winner?
Strange he isnt called a genius like a certain flat trainer who adopts the same tactics
In my opinion, anyone who places store by just one factor – even when that factor is as important as is the effect of pace – to the exclusion of all others is highly likely to be "fooled by randomness" themselves.
Very true. a few years ago i compiled figures of my own and they were quite reasonable when a good pace was set. I had a few erroneous ones as well, i may have found the source of my problem but not yet fixed it. I also had a few headscratchers that i thought were errors but "past well publised events" have revealed the reason behind the strange runnings!
We/ve got wonder horses at both distances now, if VPU wins easily tomorrow will they all be pushed up again. It’s starting to get very silly!
I’m probably talking garbage!!!
i don’t understand this NH game but what exactly has MM beaten apart from VPU who has inclined to have a few not so good uns. Theres nothing special on the clock, never really been asked to dig deep and battle, what if the race is not run to suit and he has to battle. All that said the oppo is not that strong but give the hype a rest and as for these ratings well, we’ve all seen horses with wonderfull ratings before. Should win but i hope something makes a race of it for the viewers.
I therefore conclude the same for horses. I would say though even then some horses can carry weight better than others. (there goes my machine theory).
i am just interested in speedratings!
That was to be my banker for tomorrow