The home of intelligent horse racing discussion
The home of intelligent horse racing discussion

fooled by the randomness

Home Forums Archive Topics Trends, Research And Notebooks fooled by the randomness

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 32 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • #10526
    Avatar photoplacemat2
    Member
    • Total Posts 318

    Did any of you weights and measures guys see the split screen of the novice and champ hurdle.Must be horrible that your likes work has been shot out of the water .I did a split screen with a derby winner and a handicapper made interesting viewing.Does anybody out there still think that weight is the key?

    paceform.org

    #215093
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2003

    Er, come again?

    #215098
    Avatar photoplacemat2
    Member
    • Total Posts 318

    I’m trying to say that pace is everything and weight means very little. These 1/2 tonne animals can carry weight and dose it affect them?.Not much Imo.And the split screen today showed how the pace affects the race.When i say fooled by the randomness i mean that when a weights and measures guy gets a winner he thinks he on to something but really its random luck and the fact that some trainers will try harder when their horse seems to be well in(at the weights).I hope that makes sense.I’m not much of a writer…..

    paceform.org

    #215101
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2003

    Not much of a sage either……….

    IMHO of course.

    #215105
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    I think you will find that many "weights and measures guys" are well aware of the effect of pace.

    Precisely who is being fooled by what here?

    #215106
    Avatar photoplacemat2
    Member
    • Total Posts 318

    lol.Im a winner so i must be very lucky.I would bet you are not like most people.By the way i had to look sage up.

    paceform.org

    #215108
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2003

    You’re right, I’m not like most people.

    Most people don’t look for the following week’s results in bugs they’ve placed in Kempton Park lifts.

    #215112
    Avatar photoplacemat2
    Member
    • Total Posts 318

    I think you will find that many "weights and measures guys" are well aware of the effect of pace.

    Precisely who is being fooled by what here?

    I have found many weights and messures guys also have no idea.They go by the handicap full stop.

    #215114
    Prufrock
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2081

    You should not necessarily judge everyone by the company you yourself choose to keep.

    #215117
    Glenn
    Participant
    • Total Posts 2003

    I notice you use the 80-20 rule when placing bets. Do you not think it’s this, rather than your pace analysis, that’s producing the goods?

    In any case, do you not realise that this method has been patented?

    #215120
    The Dice Man
    Member
    • Total Posts 85

    I liked the thread title, very good book

    #215123
    Avatar photoGerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    I am trying to take account of pace, but I find it difficult. I’ve come across races described as set off at a fast pace, but because none of the horses were off the bridle, it didn’t seem so to me at the time.

    Of course, we don’t have sectional timimg in this country, so anyone prepared to put in the time infront of the video with a stopwatch, or whatever, is going to gain an edge against the crowd.

    What I do try to take account of is how many frontrunners there are in a race. A half-dozen runner affair with a single frontrunner, ridden by someone like Dettori at a course like Goodwood is just about the perfect betting medium.

    #215143
    Avatar photoplacemat2
    Member
    • Total Posts 318

    I notice you use the 80-20 rule when placing bets. Do you not think it’s this, rather than your pace analysis, that’s producing the goods?

    In any case, do you not realise that this method has been patented?

    I use the method i didnt steel it.And its the pace that produces the results.I only ever look at the pace.And from that i look for suited horses.

    #215144
    Avatar photoplacemat2
    Member
    • Total Posts 318

    You should not necessarily judge everyone by the company you yourself choose to keep.

    I find you pompus at best.These guys I talk about I work with.I can’t choose my work mates can I?I work for an internet betting company so you can imagine that many like to gamble.

    #215146
    Avatar photoplacemat2
    Member
    • Total Posts 318

    I liked the thread title, very good book

    Great book and best way to explain. :D

    #215155
    Avatar photoplacemat2
    Member
    • Total Posts 318

    I am trying to take account of pace, but I find it difficult. I’ve come across races described as set off at a fast pace, but because none of the horses were off the bridle, it didn’t seem so to me at the time.

    Of course, we don’t have sectional timimg in this country, so anyone prepared to put in the time infront of the video with a stopwatch, or whatever, is going to gain an edge against the crowd.

    What I do try to take account of is how many frontrunners there are in a race. A half-dozen runner affair with a single frontrunner, ridden by someone like Dettori at a course like Goodwood is just about the perfect betting medium.

    Hi Gerald,
    The more front runners normally means a faster pace..That also normally means the front runners will not be winning in that kind of race.Its very hard for a horse to stay up there when being taken on esp when they have moved quickley from a stand still.Look at the champion hurdle today.Osana went way to fast.You cant blame the jockey but he went way to fast.If he went a little slower the runner up would probably of won.Horses seem to use more energy from the front esp if they battle with other horses for the lead.

    #215164
    Avatar photoGerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    You can’t JUST go by the pace – surely you have to take into account the kind of track being run on previously and this time. Some will be more suited to frontrunners or holdup horses than others.
    Some tracks will be more conducive to an even pace being set, while others may have features that prompt a sprint for home etc.

    When it comes to frontrunners, or horses that are in the lead in the last couple of furlongs, I, I suppose like everyone else, love horses that can fight off more than one challenge. Haven’t particularly noticed any since I started betting again, and suppose I won’t until Saturday 28th March…

Viewing 17 posts - 1 through 17 (of 32 total)
  • You must be logged in to reply to this topic.