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Horses seem to use more energy from the front esp if they battle with other horses for the lead.
yes i did.I didnt think the blinds would make him run like that and set the race up for someone else.You cant always get it right.
yes i did.I didnt think the blinds would make him run like that and set the race up for someone else.You cant always get it right.
I frimly agree
You can’t JUST go by the pace – surely you have to take into account the kind of track being run on previously and this time. Some will be more suited to frontrunners or holdup horses than others.
Some tracks will be more conducive to an even pace being set, while others may have features that prompt a sprint for home etc.When it comes to frontrunners, or horses that are in the lead in the last couple of furlongs, I, I suppose like everyone else, love horses that can fight off more than one challenge. Haven’t particularly noticed any since I started betting again, and suppose I won’t until Saturday 28th March…
each track produces a different pace.Good example is wolves and lingfield.Even if a horse wanted to go as fast has he runs at lingfield the bends wont let him.Thats why many horses dont like going from one to the other.
I wish I could make a more positive contribution to this thread, because it is a subject I am very interested in. Unfortunately, I’ve never done a study of pace. Don’t have the werewithal.
When I was compiling my own ratings I noticed, in addition to the normal things such as York and N’ket are best and Chester is whatever etc, that the results at Newbury don’t tend to mean much – they are not translated into other performances. I know that even in races starting in the back straight a draw near the rail is advantageous, but I was at a loss to understand what other factors may be at work. I even went as far as thinking it might be the nature of the soil (used to be an airfield during WW2) or the grass
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Would you have any insights into Newbury, I mean on the Flat.In my opinion, anyone who places store by just one factor – even when that factor is as important as is the effect of pace – to the exclusion of all others is highly likely to be "fooled by randomness" themselves.
Without all the important ingredients, the cake just won’t turn out or taste as good as it might have done.
Eh, what am I talking about ?
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I wish I could make a more positive contribution to this thread, because it is a subject I am very interested in. Unfortunately, I’ve never done a study of pace. Don’t have the werewithal.
When I was compiling my own ratings I noticed, in addition to the normal things such as York and N’ket are best and Chester is whatever etc, that the results at Newbury don’t tend to mean much – they are not translated into other performances. I know that even in races starting in the back straight a draw near the rail is advantageous, but I was at a loss to understand what other factors may be at work. I even went as far as thinking it might be the nature of the soil (used to be an airfield during WW2) or the grass
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Would you have any insights into Newbury, I mean on the Flat.one thing for sure about going is that you cant go from track to track and except their going report.Some tracks use a stick.Those sticks are thin and go into the ground a horses hoof is a different.Is like comparing wearing stilettos and big boots.depending where you are in the country the ground is different.
Strangely Brown had very big feet for a horse, as did (something or other) Owl. George Washington, on the other hand, had dainty little ones, as was evident when he ran on soft ground.
Who was it the other day who said his horse’s feet were so big you could pick up Sky TV off them? Can’t remember just now, but I did have a good guffaw at that.
gc
Jeremy Grayson. Son of immigrant. Adoptive father of two. Metadata librarian. Freelance point-to-point / horse racing writer, analyst and commentator wonk. Loves music, buses, cats, the BBC Micro, ale. Advocate of CBT, PACE and therapeutic parenting. Aspergers.
On yesterday’s performance, it could well have been Graham Cunningham, Jeremy. He was in excellent form, his piece after Witchita Lineman won was truly memorable.
Colin
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In my opinion, anyone who places store by just one factor – even when that factor is as important as is the effect of pace – to the exclusion of all others is highly likely to be "fooled by randomness" themselves.
Very true. a few years ago i compiled figures of my own and they were quite reasonable when a good pace was set. I had a few erroneous ones as well, i may have found the source of my problem but not yet fixed it. I also had a few headscratchers that i thought were errors but "past well publised events" have revealed the reason behind the strange runnings!
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I have a book written by the well known American pundit Robert V. Rowe, by which I set some considerable store. In particular, I keep in mind at all times Rowe’s assertion that there is no single method that can answer the handicapping conundrum in every case. Another way of looking at this is that each race has its own unique set of problems to solve. I think the best you can ever do is to be aware of this and try to predict which particular set of factors is likely to have the biggest influence in any particular race.
I also think it’s vital to wait for an opportunity, rather than trying to force that opportunity. For me, this means betting only when I feel it would be an affront to reason not to do so.
My three most spectacular victories in the past nine months or so have all illustrated these principles. I picked South Central at Royal Ascot (if I recall properly) because i thought I could trust what had been written about it previously in
Racing Post
. I picked Raven’s pass in the Breeders’ Cup because it was getting better all year, Curlin was over the top and none of O’Brien’s horses could beat it at that time and I picked Desperate Dan recently in a seller at Wolverhampton because I thought I could trust the ratings in
Racing Post
in that particular race, it was within a pound or two of the jolly and it had a far better draw.
One thing I’m sure we can all agree on – it’s difficult!
Brian
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