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That pertemps race was so slow it was almost a joke.If there was ever a race that proves how import pace is was this one.A 22 horse race with no pace.
paceform.org
There is no point in complaining about the lack of pace – the point is to predict it.
Having said that, I didn’t bother thinking about it.
The going does seem to be a bit slower than the previous two days. Can you confirm that?
I would be of that view, Gerald, at least on the hurdles course.
I wondered whether the thread-starter might make something of the pace of the three 2m5f chases. The contention (made on telly) that the Ryanair Chase was a test of speed is difficult to sustain when you look at the sectionals.
I take my own, along the lines that Gerald mentions.
I would suggest that the known laws of the universe would have to alter in order to accept that energy distribution in athletic performance is unimportant.
People frequently make the mistake of judging the worth or otherwise of sectionals by rule-of-thumb measures like where a horse has raced and where it finishes. It can be, indeed often is, much more complex than that.
What I believe can be said with certainty is that the way a horse runs its race will have an effect on its overall time. In order to judge the effect it has on its finishing position you need to consider very many other factors, not least how every other horse in the race has run its race.
normally a 22 horse race dose not start like fox hunt buy yes that’s half the battle finding out how fast they go.And as far as the going.The chase track is running g/s the hurdles soft imo.That might change.The forecast is for warm weather.
Sectionals? You must be one of those clever people with a stopwatch.
To be serious though, to me, it seems a whole lot easier to do sectionals over the jumps, because you can take a split when the leader is in mid-air over a jump, or lands, whilst on the Flat it is difficult to use the furlong markers or any other distinguishing feature. (I think parallex might be the relevant term, but I need to look it up.)
I would be of that view, Gerald, at least on the hurdles course.
I wondered whether the thread-starter might make something of the pace of the three 2m5f chases. The contention (made on telly) that the Ryanair Chase was a test of speed is difficult to sustain when you look at the sectionals.
where are the sectionals?
I take my own, along the lines that Gerald mentions.
I would suggest that the known laws of the universe would have to alter in order for me to accept that energy distribution in athletic performance is unimportant.
People frequently make the mistake of judging the worth or otherwise of sectionals by rule-of-thumb measures like where a horse has raced and where it finishes. It can be, indeed often is, much more complex than that.
What I believe can be said with certainty is that the way a horse runs its race will have an effect on its overall time. In order to judge the effect it has on its finishing position you need to consider very many other factors, not least how every other horse in the race has run its race.
The known laws of the universe have just allowed me to travel back in time and post my reply to Glenn’s question before he had even posed it…
Gremlins in the system, cormack?!
I’ll ask the question I always ask pacebugs: How would you know if you were wrong?
What would have to happen for you to conclude pace wasn’t a very important factor? Would the two setting an early funerial pace finishing 16th and 18th of 19 destroy your theory for example?
I’ll ask the question I always ask pacebugs: How would you know if you were wrong?
What would have to happen for you to conclude pace wasn’t a very important factor? Would the two setting an early funeral pace finishing 16th and 18th of 19 destroy your theory for example?
Nothing.I know.have a look at Imperial Commander then tell me weight matters too much.
Are you trolling? Imperial Commander carried the same weight as all the others. It was a level weights race just like those races you put up the other day as disproving the influence of weight – the champion hurdle and the supreme novices.
Are you trolling? Imperial Commander carried the same weight as all the others. It was a level weights race just like those races you put up the other day as disproving the influence of weight – the champion hurdle and the supreme novices.
lol you’re a thinker. LOOK……..
I look, but I don’t think I’ll find the answer to the age old question
how important is weight?
in races where weight isn’t a variable.
Pru – I’m well aware of the complexity of pace. It was explained to viewers by James Willoughby one night at Kempton. Pace was crucial in every race – the winning jockey had always judged the fractions right. In one race a horse won due to being allowed a soft lead. In another, where there was also a slow early pace,a hold up horse won. I forget the exact reason forwarded but pace explained this win as well. Winners came from the front, from behind, off fast paces and slow paces, with no rhyme or reason I could see, yet every result was a vindication of James’ belief in the importance of pace.
The trouble here is that there’s a fine line between a complex interactive relationship and a theory that purports to explain everything and in reality explains nothing. I’m still none the wiser about which horses are favoured by a slow early pace (in relative terms) under which circumstances beyond saying that the eventual winners were advantaged.
If a track exists where the perfect pace is an even one and two horses post 12 second furlong splits for the first four furlongs of a five furlong race, which horse are you backing to win the race at that point? If one goes on to sprint clear in the final furlong in 12 seconds, while the other runs 14 secs and fades to last, is the winner adjudged to have run the perfect fractions, while the last placed horse used up too much energy early on?
I heard his ramblings that night, but i was irritated because if he is right the academic approach is in effect totally random.
What i am trying to say is; if James is right, my quest to find the key is infinite.
I look, but I don’t think I’ll find the answer to the age old question
how important is weight?
in races where weight isn’t a variable.
Pru – I’m well aware of the complexity of pace. It was explained to viewers by James Willoughby one night at Kempton. Pace was crucial in every race – the winning jockey had always judged the fractions right. In one race a horse won due to being allowed a soft lead. In another, where there was also a slow early pace,a hold up horse won. I forget the exact reason forwarded but pace explained this win as well. Winners came from the front, from behind, off fast paces and slow paces, with no rhyme or reason I could see, yet every result was a vindication of James’ belief in the importance of pace.
The trouble here is that there’s a fine line between a complex interactive relationship and a theory that purports to explain everything and in reality explains nothing. I’m still none the wiser about which horses are favoured by a slow early pace (in relative terms) under which circumstances beyond saying that the eventual winners were advantaged.
If a track exists where the perfect pace is an even one and two horses post 12 second furlong splits for the first four furlongs of a five furlong race, which horse are you backing to win the race at that point? If one goes on to sprint clear in the final furlong in 12 seconds, while the other runs 14 secs and fades to last, is the winner adjudged to have run the perfect fractions, while the last placed horse used up too much energy early on?
glenn
The horse ran the same time from the front in another race at the same track with more runners with less weight.Look at the last race at cheltenham where he won.If weight makes a difference why did he do the same time up in class with a much bigger load?
I notice only one run over C&D and that was 13 seconds faster off 3lbs lower. So maybe those extra three pounds today slowed him down over 50 lengths according to your logic…………
The Paddy Power was run over a different course (the old course) and a different distance (half a furlong shorter).
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