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With all due respect, to suggest that the front two can’t win because they didn’t contest a Championship race last year is complete cobblers and a good example of the Craig Thake approach to trends. They both have good course form and have proven top class form this season. Their position at the top of the market is fully deserved and a strategy that leaves them out is doomed to failure!

Anyone whose approach fails to concentrate on the horses with previous Festival form is doomed to failure (IMHO of course)

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Regarding Sublimity, look again at last year’s race – he doesn’t jump the last, then after it he doesn’t quicken away, but he’s far enough in front to stay in front. Just don’t ask me to name who will win, probably Sizing Europe – though Osana won’t be far away, and Harchibald will surely make the frame.

Andy

It’s an interesting race because according to the trends two of the market leaders can’t win. Maybe the trend is so strong because the majority of Champion hurdlers need to show they can win or be placed in Championship races before they make the grade.

Whilst Osana and Sizing Europe have shown good form this year, neither has even contested a Championship race never mind won one. (With absolutely no offence intended I don’t consider the AIB Champion Hurdle a Championship race). It certainly makes the Champion Hurdle a ‘must bet’ race for me as taking out two of the top three in the betting guarantees value elsewhere

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Tuffers,

You’re wrong about one thing.

Bobs Pride never ran at Cheltenham, never mind being placed at a Festival…

I think I must have had a bit of a brain melt there. I meant Catch Me (3rd 2007 Ballymore Novices Hurdle) not Bobs Pride.

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I remember posting on the old SMARTsig forum over 10 years ago does SMARTsig still exist?)

The hard-copy mag went under a couple of years ago but has recently resurfaced as a web-only mag with, as before, subscribers being responsible for submitting articles. There is also an e-mail forum

http://www.smartersig.com/login.php

Not a subscriber myself

Thanks, Drone. I’ll check that out.

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This little debate has passed me by but the bald stats for Jonjo are that he has had 14 winners from 170 runners in December, January and February. I’m not best placed to account for this but I would just mention that only Paul Nicholls has trained more winners this season and despite the bad run over the last three months, Jonjo’s wins to runs ratio for the season (16%) is still comparable to David Pipe (16%), Alan King (18%), Nigel Twiston-Davies (18%), Philip Hobbs (15%), Gary Moore (16%), Howard Johnson (17%) and Nicky Richards (17%). In fact only Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have noticeably superior strike rates.

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Looking at the trends I’ve outlined and the NRNB prices Afsoun looks the value at 20/1

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In goes another one to beat that hot tip, Steig

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I love the Champion Hurdle because the trends are so strong. Every one of the last ten Champion Hurdles has been won by a horse that had either won or been placed at a previous Cheltenham Festival.

The most important race from a previous festival is the previous year’s Champion Hurdle followed by the previous year’s Supreme Novices Hurdle. The Ballymore (formerly Sun Alliance) Novices Hurdle has (possibly surprisingly in view of the fact it is run over 2m5f) produced Champion Hurdle winners and of late the County Hurdle has also got into the mix.

If we focus on horses who have won or been placed (first three) in one of the last two years’ festivals in one of those races (to exclude very old form) we get the following shortlist (I’ve included the current Stan James NRNB price in brackets).

Afsoun (3rd 2007 Champion Hurdle) (20/1)
Bobs Pride (3rd 2007 Ballymore Novices Hurdle) (40/1)
Ebaziyan (1st 2007 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (25/1)
Straw Bear (2nd 2006 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (20/1)
Sublimity (1st 2007 Champion Hurdle) (9/2)
Amaretto Rose (3rd 2007 Supreme Novices Hurdle) (25/1)

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Just thought I would give this one a bump as a loyal Brisbourne owner. He has now had 23 out of his 31 runners in the first four so far this year. Considering he only has about seven horses running at the moment it’s a remarkable achievement.

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Unfortunately the OP’s point is one that afflicts the majority of internet forums.

I remember posting on the old SMARTsig forum over 10 years ago (incidentally Alan does SMARTsig still exist?)

In those days (how old do I sound?) internet forums were much more sparsely populated and membership of the forum tended to be more restricted.

Even though there was still a range of opinions and personalities you tended not to suffer the attentions of those who seem to like to post for postings sake or alternatively just to make mischief.

The only solution IMHO is for membership and posting rights to be much more closely controlled. It is a lot of work for forum administrators though and there are clearly issues regarding censorship that I have difficulties with. Timewasters and troublemakers probably should be given the old spanish archer however.

I post on a couple of other forums and can only say that by comparison this forum is much less afflicted by the nutters than most

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I’m a veteran of SO and SO2 and it’s a great way to while away a few hours whilst the real life horses aren’t doing the business. I’ve gone onto their forum to suggest a couple of realism tweaks but SO3 is certainly on my shopping list for April

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As I have mentioned on the main forum, I now only back Mark Brisbourne’s runners on the flat. I’ve just checked out the speed figures for the 4.05 at Wolverhampton and MORBICK is absolutely miles clear on recent form. His last time out figure is 91 and the next best last time out figure is 69!

I reckon that at 6/4 we should all be filling our boots especially as Dean Heslop has a cracking record for Mark

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For anyone going to Warwick today I would (as ever with Warwick) ignore the official going description. It’s verging on good on both tracks and it is a bright sunny day here.

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Just returned home to a letter from Warwick racecourse. They are making an ex gratia payment to all owners who had runners of up to £180 depending on how far away from Warwick the horses had to travel. They are also offering two free badges for any Warwick meeting this year.

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I can’t believe most of you are missing the point. Derren Brown isn’t suggesting he’s psychic – he assumes we are not all so thick that we don’t realise he backed all four horses. The point is that woman wanted to believe and even though she knew she had a losing ticket in her hand, when Derren substituted it she was happy to believe the system still worked. It is a lesson in belief, gullibility and how fraudsters cheat the vunerable.

As for giving fraudsters ideas, it’s such a well used scam that Derren exposing it for what it is can only be beneficial.

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One of the oldest tipping scams going.

Congrats Mr. Brown.

That’s 52 minutes of my life wasted, by choice of course.

Hopefully it isn’t wasted if it stops the gullible that fraudsters prey on paying for tips

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I told you it was all full of sh1t.

I thought his system guaranteed winners – he’s just told us he has gave about 5,000 people a loser

I guarantee that if I picked every horse in a race I would pick a winner – then if I picked every horse in the next race, I would pick another winner etc

7,776 people started. The system is successful for one person but 7,775 eventually back losers despite Brown at the start of the show GUARANTEEING his system works.

Any one else feel cheated

Mike

Derren Brown hates charlatans and loves to expose them. He’s basically saying that next time someone tells you they have a system for picking winners be aware that it’s a scam

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