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Glad I opened this thread, thanks bettingboy.
I hope ‘III’ means there are two previous incarnations of this type of post!Heart Shaped and Pursuit of Glory are both a little overpriced at 18 and 50 imo. Although I do hope Rainbow View can become as good as she looked last year, she really is a potential superstar.
I found myself in a similar situation a couple of years ago, resulting in one of the most frustrating phonecalls of my life. Nobody seemed to understand how ridiculous it was to have the reduction factor take the odds down to 1.01, when the horse was trading at 1.3 in the market after the NRs were taken out.
I don’t understand why they can’t manually override whatever software they use to determine reduction factors in these instances. It’s surely very simple to calculate the correct number which would reduce the odds to what would be expected after the market is reopened, to make the system as fair as possible.
So in the case of non runners where the fav is odds on is it best then just to lay the fav knowing that after the massive betfair reductions that if it still won the damage would be light?
That’s the way it seems to me. When the situation stays the same, and betfair aren’t showing any willingness to correct such an obviously stupid methodology, it makes sense to take advantage of it. A while back I managed to lay ~7k at 1.55 on a favourite where the third fav was due to be withdrawn, and ended up with adjusted odds of 1.18, when the market reopened the fav was a 1.35 chance.
Just keep an eye on the reduction factors in the pop-up screen when selecting a horse’s price history.
I like Willoughby, whether you agree with him or not, I usually find that he is interesting to read/listen to. He looks at factors which aren’t readily priced into the markets, rather the standard collateral form angles which I find extremely bland. His opinions are thought-provoking which is a big plus in my book.
I believe some bookmakers on Wednesday ran out of cash and had to request loans from the racecourse
Looking at the prices I’m pretty sure that I will be siding with Punjabi and Cousin Vinny tomorrow.
Quevega looks very short, she ran poorly at this meeting last season, and it’s a big step up from beating those of the same sex to taking on all-comers at Grade 1 level. I think this might be a little sharp for Solwhit.
Punjabi won here last year, has a good record in small fields, and despite all the knockers he has, he is still a Champion Hurdle winner after all! I definitely wouldn’t have Quevega over a point shorter than him.
Cousin Vinny is obviously a great e/w bet, and if the pace is slow I can see him outpacing the favourite. I think he’s an inferior horse, but given the conditions, not quite inferior enough to warrant him being 9/2
I think I have to bet Garde Champetre at 15/8, I hate taking shortish prices but I didn’t think he’d be bigger than 6/4. I can’t see any real reason he should be that big
4:02 i think, four sesonds quicker than last year anyway
Yes, but slower than every other recent year. I would think it’s definitely soft.
1:30 Michael Flips (Torphichen)
2:05 Tatenen (Follow The Plan)
2:40 Millenium Royal (Tot O Whiskey)
3:20 Muirhead (Sublimity)
4:00 L’amiNAP
(Dix Villez)
4:40 QuevegaReserve Nap
(United)
I didnt say I backed him Diceman, but every time I look at the card I keep being drawn to that horse for some reason, looking at his form and after his lay off I couldnt even consider backing him, especially with their being no money for it, just thinking about soft ground and on pedigree that one is Bering/Highest Honour, but that is probably the one positive next to a hundered negatives.
heh I thought you had lost your mind!
they all do, generally I think you just keep adding selections to your betting slip. just email or phone them and I’m sure they will help you out (I’d imagine that a dedicated customer service team will be more likely to tell you what you need to know than posters on a forum who don’t even know which site you are talking about!)
